Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#53
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#132
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 22.8% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 73.6% 85.4% 64.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 90.5% 81.2%
Conference Champion 24.2% 30.7% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round17.6% 22.7% 13.6%
Second Round2.2% 3.5% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 152   @ Ohio L 77-79 44%    
  Nov 07, 2025 220   @ Stephen F. Austin W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 11, 2025 114   @ Missouri St. L 66-71 33%    
  Nov 19, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 59-72 13%    
  Nov 21, 2025 46   @ SMU L 70-83 12%    
  Nov 24, 2025 154   Jacksonville St. W 71-67 65%    
  Nov 28, 2025 215   North Dakota St. W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 02, 2025 190   Texas Arlington W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 06, 2025 162   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 13, 2025 172   @ Rice L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 17, 2025 197   @ Texas St. W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 20, 2025 276   @ Southern Miss W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 04, 2026 132   James Madison W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 07, 2026 130   Troy W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 197   Texas St. W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 15, 2026 167   @ South Alabama L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 17, 2026 130   @ Troy L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 22, 2026 243   @ Georgia Southern W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 24, 2026 283   @ Georgia St. W 79-73 67%    
  Jan 28, 2026 195   Old Dominion W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 31, 2026 185   Marshall W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 04, 2026 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 11, 2026 347   Louisiana Monroe W 81-64 92%    
  Feb 14, 2026 167   South Alabama W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 19, 2026 233   @ Louisiana W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 21, 2026 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 78-67 81%    
  Feb 24, 2026 276   Southern Miss W 82-71 82%    
  Feb 27, 2026 233   Louisiana W 76-67 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 4.4 6.5 6.1 4.0 1.3 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 5.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.9 1.0 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.3 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.2 9.6 11.2 12.3 12.1 11.5 9.4 6.7 4.1 1.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.3% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 91.0% 6.1    5.0 1.1 0.0
15-3 69.4% 6.5    3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 38.4% 4.4    1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 14.3% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 16.0 6.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 64.6% 61.8% 2.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 7.3%
17-1 4.1% 51.4% 51.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 0.4%
16-2 6.7% 47.5% 47.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 0.2%
15-3 9.4% 38.9% 38.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.7
14-4 11.5% 26.1% 26.1% 13.1 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.5
13-5 12.1% 19.2% 19.2% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.8
12-6 12.3% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 10.9
11-7 11.2% 5.8% 5.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.6
10-8 9.6% 3.4% 3.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-9 7.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-10 5.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
7-11 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 23.5 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 2.4% 2.4
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.6% 17.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.0 5.5 5.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 82.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 48.3 48.3 3.4