Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+22.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#339
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.6#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.1% 9.1% n/a
#1 Seed 32.0% 32.0% n/a
Top 2 Seed 54.2% 54.2% n/a
Top 4 Seed 77.1% 77.1% n/a
Top 6 Seed 88.7% 88.7% n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.7% 97.7% n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% 95.9% n/a
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 n/a
.500 or above 99.3% 99.3% n/a
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.5% n/a
Conference Champion 57.5% 57.5% n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% n/a
First Four0.7% 0.7% n/a
First Round97.4% 97.4% n/a
Second Round90.3% 90.3% n/a
Sweet Sixteen66.0% 66.0% n/a
Elite Eight42.8% 42.8% n/a
Final Four26.2% 26.2% n/a
Championship Game15.2% 15.2% n/a
National Champion8.6% 8.6% n/a

Next Game: New Haven (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 28 - 118 - 6
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 363   New Haven W 90-46 99.9%   
  Nov 07, 2025 301   Umass Lowell W 88-55 99.9%   
  Nov 10, 2025 267   Columbia W 90-59 99.7%   
  Nov 14, 2025 9   BYU W 74-70 63%    
  Nov 19, 2025 11   Arizona W 77-70 73%    
  Nov 23, 2025 248   Bryant W 89-59 99.6%   
  Nov 28, 2025 15   Illinois W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 02, 2025 14   @ Kansas W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 05, 2025 331   East Texas A&M W 84-49 99.9%   
  Dec 09, 2025 5   Florida W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 12, 2025 38   Texas W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 16, 2025 66   Butler W 78-62 91%    
  Dec 21, 2025 83   @ DePaul W 76-63 86%    
  Dec 31, 2025 50   @ Xavier W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 04, 2026 43   Marquette W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 07, 2026 61   @ Providence W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 10, 2026 83   DePaul W 79-60 94%    
  Jan 13, 2026 102   @ Seton Hall W 71-57 89%    
  Jan 17, 2026 68   @ Georgetown W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 24, 2026 39   Villanova W 71-59 85%    
  Jan 27, 2026 61   Providence W 77-61 90%    
  Jan 31, 2026 25   @ Creighton W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 03, 2026 50   Xavier W 77-63 88%    
  Feb 06, 2026 8   @ St. John's W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 11, 2026 66   @ Butler W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 14, 2026 68   Georgetown W 78-61 92%    
  Feb 18, 2026 25   Creighton W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 21, 2026 39   @ Villanova W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 25, 2026 8   St. John's W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 28, 2026 102   Seton Hall W 74-54 95%    
  Mar 07, 2026 43   @ Marquette W 72-65 72%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 7.2 12.2 14.9 13.2 6.5 57.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 6.5 5.9 3.6 0.9 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 3.1 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.7 6.5 8.6 11.1 13.6 15.9 15.8 13.2 6.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.5    6.5
19-1 100.0% 13.2    12.8 0.4
18-2 94.5% 14.9    12.9 2.0 0.0
17-3 76.8% 12.2    9.0 3.0 0.2
16-4 52.7% 7.2    4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 23.3% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 9.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.5% 57.5 46.6 9.4 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.5% 100.0% 76.1% 23.9% 1.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 100.0%
19-1 13.2% 100.0% 65.4% 34.6% 1.3 9.6 3.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.8% 100.0% 56.4% 43.6% 1.6 8.9 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.9% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 2.0 5.4 6.2 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.6% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 2.8 1.8 4.3 3.7 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.1% 99.9% 34.7% 65.2% 3.7 0.6 1.6 3.0 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.6% 99.4% 23.9% 75.5% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 6.5% 98.0% 19.1% 78.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
12-8 3.7% 94.5% 14.1% 80.4% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 93.6%
11-9 2.2% 85.3% 12.2% 73.1% 8.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 83.3%
10-10 1.4% 65.1% 5.1% 60.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 63.2%
9-11 0.8% 40.3% 3.3% 36.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 38.2%
8-12 0.3% 25.5% 4.2% 21.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 22.2%
7-13 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 8.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.7% 43.5% 54.2% 3.0 32.0 22.2 13.3 9.5 6.5 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 95.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0