IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Big 12
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+18.0	#11
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.6	#52
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+11.0	#8

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.1	#21

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.3%	4.2%	1.2%
#1 Seed	10.7%	17.3%	6.8%
Top 2 Seed	22.6%	34.7%	15.6%
Top 4 Seed	45.6%	61.4%	36.2%
Top 6 Seed	64.5%	79.3%	55.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	86.5%	94.8%	81.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	84.9%	94.0%	79.9%
Average Seed	4.7	3.9	5.2

.500 or above	94.2%	98.4%	91.7%
.500 or above in Conference	86.2%	92.1%	82.7%
Conference Champion	13.8%	19.0%	10.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%

First Four	3.6%	1.7%	4.6%
First Round	84.9%	93.9%	79.7%
Second Round	70.3%	81.9%	63.4%
Sweet Sixteen	41.5%	53.1%	34.6%
Elite Eight	21.6%	28.9%	17.3%
Final Four	10.8%	15.6%	8.0%
Championship Game	5.1%	8.0%	3.4%
National Champion	2.4%	3.8%	1.6%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 7	4 - 7
Quad 1b	4 - 2	8 - 9
Quad 2	6 - 1	14 - 10
Quad 3	3 - 0	17 - 10
Quad 4	6 - 0	23 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	5	Florida	L	79-82	37%
Nov 07, 2025	269	Utah Tech	W	89-62	99%
Nov 11, 2025	254	Northern Arizona	W	89-63	99%
Nov 14, 2025	13	UCLA	W	73-72	52%
Nov 19, 2025	4	@ Connecticut	L	70-77	27%
Nov 24, 2025	322	Denver	W	90-59	99.7%
Nov 29, 2025	260	Norfolk St.	W	87-61	99%
Dec 06, 2025	22	Auburn	W	80-75	68%
Dec 12, 2025	19	Alabama	W	88-86	56%
Dec 16, 2025	166	Abilene Christian	W	86-64	97%
Dec 20, 2025	35	San Diego St.	W	74-69	65%
Dec 22, 2025	249	Bethune-Cookman	W	90-64	99%
Dec 29, 2025	155	South Dakota St.	W	89-68	96%
Jan 03, 2026	89	@ Utah	W	82-73	78%
Jan 07, 2026	57	Kansas St.	W	80-69	83%
Jan 10, 2026	56	@ TCU	W	76-71	68%
Jan 14, 2026	69	Arizona St.	W	84-71	86%
Jan 17, 2026	74	@ Central Florida	W	85-78	73%
Jan 21, 2026	45	Cincinnati	W	76-67	77%
Jan 24, 2026	58	West Virginia	W	77-66	83%
Jan 26, 2026	9	@ BYU	L	77-80	39%
Jan 31, 2026	69	@ Arizona St.	W	81-74	71%
Feb 07, 2026	73	Oklahoma St.	W	87-74	86%
Feb 09, 2026	14	@ Kansas	L	75-78	42%
Feb 14, 2026	12	Texas Tech	W	77-74	60%
Feb 18, 2026	9	BYU	W	80-77	59%
Feb 21, 2026	1	@ Houston	L	63-72	22%
Feb 24, 2026	24	@ Baylor	L	73-74	50%
Feb 28, 2026	14	Kansas	W	78-75	61%
Mar 02, 2026	20	Iowa St.	W	78-73	65%
Mar 07, 2026	84	@ Colorado	W	79-71	76%
Projected Record						22 - 9	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.8	3.7	4.4	2.8	0.7		13.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	3.1	5.7	4.6	1.5	0.1			15.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	3.3	6.1	3.6	0.7	0.0				14.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	2.5	5.8	3.1	0.4	0.0					12.1	4th
5th										0.1	1.7	4.6	3.1	0.5							10.0	5th
6th									0.0	0.7	3.5	3.2	0.6								8.0	6th
7th								0.0	0.3	2.4	3.3	0.8	0.0								6.8	7th
8th								0.1	1.4	3.0	1.2	0.0									5.7	8th
9th							0.0	0.5	2.1	1.5	0.1										4.2	9th
10th							0.1	1.3	1.6	0.3	0.0										3.3	10th
11th						0.1	0.6	1.3	0.4	0.0											2.3	11th
12th					0.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.0												1.7	12th
13th					0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1													1.1	13th
14th			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.7	14th
15th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.4	15th
16th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0																0.2	16th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.2	2.1	3.7	5.8	8.0	9.9	11.6	13.4	13.1	11.5	9.0	5.9	3.0	0.7			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	95.3%	2.8		2.4	0.4
16-2	74.8%	4.4		2.8	1.5	0.1
15-3	41.0%	3.7		1.5	1.7	0.5	0.1
14-4	15.7%	1.8		0.3	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	2.2%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.8%	13.8		7.8	4.4	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		100.0%	52.9%	47.1%	1.2		0.6	0.1	0.0																100.0%
17-1	3.0%		100.0%	37.3%	62.7%	1.3		2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0															100.0%
16-2	5.9%		100.0%	31.7%	68.3%	1.6		3.1	2.1	0.6	0.1															100.0%
15-3	9.0%		100.0%	24.8%	75.2%	2.1		2.7	3.4	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	11.5%		100.0%	17.1%	82.9%	2.9		1.5	3.2	3.4	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.0									100.0%
13-5	13.1%		99.7%	11.5%	88.2%	3.9		0.5	1.8	3.4	3.3	2.3	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.7%
12-6	13.4%		99.3%	7.4%	91.9%	5.0		0.1	0.6	2.0	2.6	3.2	2.5	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0						0.1		99.3%
11-7	11.6%		97.1%	3.6%	93.5%	6.1			0.0	0.6	1.3	2.5	2.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.1						0.3		97.0%
10-8	9.9%		91.7%	2.3%	89.4%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.3	1.7	1.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.0					0.8		91.5%
9-9	8.0%		74.8%	0.9%	73.9%	8.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.0	1.2	0.6	0.0					2.0		74.5%
8-10	5.8%		47.1%	0.6%	46.5%	9.5					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.0					3.1		46.8%
7-11	3.7%		22.9%	0.6%	22.3%	10.1							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0				2.8		22.5%
6-12	2.1%		5.0%		5.0%	10.2									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0					2.0		5.0%
5-13	1.2%		1.7%	0.6%	1.2%	11.0											0.0	0.0	0.0					1.2		1.2%
4-14	0.7%																							0.7
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		86.5%	10.8%	75.7%	4.7		10.7	12.0	12.2	10.7	10.5	8.4	6.5	5.5	3.9	3.9	2.1	0.1	0.0				13.5		84.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0