Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#325
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 12.3% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.1 12.7
.500 or above 61.5% 79.6% 55.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 73.3% 55.7%
Conference Champion 9.9% 15.6% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 3.2% 7.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 12.2% 7.6%
Second Round1.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 104   @ Nevada L 59-66 26%    
  Nov 15, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 71-63 77%    
  Nov 19, 2025 173   @ Indiana St. L 73-74 46%    
  Nov 26, 2025 173   Indiana St. W 76-71 67%    
  Nov 29, 2025 323   Alcorn St. W 70-56 88%    
  Dec 03, 2025 243   @ Georgia Southern W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 13, 2025 233   Louisiana W 69-61 74%    
  Dec 17, 2025 115   @ Tulane L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 29, 2025 160   UTEP W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 02, 2026 151   @ Middle Tennessee L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 04, 2026 161   @ Western Kentucky L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 08, 2026 100   Liberty L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 10, 2026 236   Delaware W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 14, 2026 151   Middle Tennessee W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 17, 2026 154   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 24, 2026 146   Kennesaw St. W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 28, 2026 160   @ UTEP L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 31, 2026 199   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 04, 2026 139   New Mexico St. W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 07, 2026 199   Sam Houston St. W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 12, 2026 114   @ Missouri St. L 59-65 32%    
  Feb 14, 2026 209   @ Florida International W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 18, 2026 154   Jacksonville St. W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 21, 2026 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2026 114   Missouri St. W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 28, 2026 209   Florida International W 70-63 71%    
  Mar 05, 2026 100   @ Liberty L 61-68 27%    
  Mar 07, 2026 236   @ Delaware W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.3 7.6 5.2 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 97.6% 1.4    1.3 0.1
17-3 84.9% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 63.0% 2.7    1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.3% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 13.2% 1.0    0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 6.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.2% 49.8% 22.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5%
19-1 0.5% 52.5% 42.1% 10.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 18.1%
18-2 1.5% 43.6% 41.7% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.8 3.3%
17-3 2.6% 36.2% 35.9% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.4%
16-4 4.2% 27.9% 27.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0
15-5 5.2% 20.0% 20.0% 12.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 4.2
14-6 7.6% 16.6% 16.6% 12.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
13-7 9.3% 12.7% 12.7% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.1
12-8 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.6
11-9 10.0% 6.2% 6.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.4
10-10 9.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4
9-11 9.4% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-12 8.5% 0.7% 0.7% 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-13 7.0% 1.3% 1.3% 18.3 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-14 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.6
5-15 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.8% 8.7% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 91.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 9.5 50.0 50.0