IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#270
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.3	#177
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.6	#223

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.2%	13.5%	6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.5	14.2	15.1

.500 or above	40.3%	71.7%	39.0%
.500 or above in Conference	58.7%	80.2%	57.8%
Conference Champion	9.1%	19.4%	8.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.3%	1.7%	5.5%

First Four	1.9%	1.2%	1.9%
First Round	6.9%	13.1%	6.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 9	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	58	@ West Virginia	L	57-75	4%
Nov 07, 2025	286	Bucknell	W	71-67	65%
Nov 11, 2025	345	@ St. Francis (PA)	W	70-67	61%
Nov 16, 2025	45	@ Cincinnati	L	56-77	3%
Nov 19, 2025	40	@ Maryland	L	60-82	3%
Nov 23, 2025	282	@ Western Michigan	L	70-72	42%
Nov 25, 2025	27	@ Ohio St.	L	60-84	2%
Nov 29, 2025	328	Howard	W	77-70	73%
Dec 03, 2025	251	Sacred Heart	W	75-73	56%
Dec 05, 2025	237	@ Marist	L	60-65	34%
Dec 13, 2025	316	@ Loyola Maryland	L	68-69	50%
Dec 19, 2025	225	@ Drexel	L	61-66	32%
Dec 29, 2025	208	Iona	L	70-71	49%
Jan 02, 2026	258	@ Merrimack	L	62-66	37%
Jan 04, 2026	221	@ Quinnipiac	L	71-76	32%
Jan 09, 2026	295	St. Peter's	W	65-60	64%
Jan 11, 2026	213	Siena	W	70-69	50%
Jan 17, 2026	352	@ Canisius	W	70-66	62%
Jan 19, 2026	333	@ Niagara	W	67-66	54%
Jan 22, 2026	221	Quinnipiac	W	74-73	51%
Jan 24, 2026	309	Rider	W	69-64	67%
Jan 30, 2026	295	@ St. Peter's	L	62-63	45%
Feb 01, 2026	252	Manhattan	W	73-71	56%
Feb 05, 2026	258	Merrimack	W	65-63	58%
Feb 07, 2026	208	@ Iona	L	67-73	31%
Feb 13, 2026	309	@ Rider	L	66-67	47%
Feb 20, 2026	333	Niagara	W	70-63	73%
Feb 22, 2026	352	Canisius	W	73-63	79%
Feb 27, 2026	251	@ Sacred Heart	L	72-76	37%
Mar 01, 2026	320	@ Fairfield	W	68-67	51%
Projected Record						14 - 16	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.8	2.0	2.5	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.0		9.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.7	3.0	2.5	1.3	0.2	0.1				9.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	2.1	3.3	2.4	0.7	0.1						8.8	3rd
4th											0.3	1.8	3.8	2.5	0.7	0.1							9.2	4th
5th										0.2	1.6	4.0	3.0	0.6	0.0								9.5	5th
6th									0.0	1.2	4.1	2.8	0.6	0.0									8.8	6th
7th								0.1	0.8	3.3	3.5	0.8	0.0										8.5	7th
8th							0.0	0.6	3.1	3.5	1.1	0.0											8.3	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	2.5	3.6	1.3	0.1												8.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	1.7	2.8	1.4	0.2													6.4	10th
11th				0.0	0.4	1.8	2.5	1.4	0.2														6.2	11th
12th			0.1	0.5	1.3	1.5	0.9	0.2															4.6	12th
13th	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.4	0.1																3.2	13th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	2.8	4.1	5.8	7.5	9.0	9.7	10.7	9.8	9.8	8.3	6.9	5.2	3.9	2.2	1.3	0.5	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.4	0.0
18-2	95.6%	1.2		1.1	0.1
17-3	90.1%	2.0		1.7	0.3	0.0
16-4	63.5%	2.5		1.6	0.8	0.1
15-5	38.0%	2.0		1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
14-6	11.0%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.5%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	9.1%	9.1		6.0	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		42.4%	42.4%		13.3													0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0
19-1	0.5%		37.3%	37.3%		12.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.3
18-2	1.3%		34.8%	34.8%		13.6													0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0		0.8
17-3	2.2%		32.5%	32.5%		14.1													0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	1.5
16-4	3.9%		21.7%	21.7%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	3.1
15-5	5.2%		19.0%	19.0%		16.6														0.0	0.3	0.4	0.4	4.2
14-6	6.9%		15.5%	15.5%		16.2														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	5.8
13-7	8.3%		11.3%	11.3%		18.9															0.0	0.3	0.7	7.3
12-8	9.8%		7.7%	7.7%		18.1															0.1	0.2	0.6	9.1
11-9	9.8%		5.7%	5.7%		18.8																0.1	0.5	9.3
10-10	10.7%		3.2%	3.2%		17.8																0.1	0.3	10.3
9-11	9.7%		2.0%	2.0%		16.5																0.0	0.2	9.5
8-12	9.0%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
7-13	7.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
6-14	5.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
5-15	4.1%																							4.1
4-16	2.8%																							2.8
3-17	1.5%																							1.5
2-18	0.7%																							0.7
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.2%	7.2%	0.0%	16.5												0.0	0.2	0.5	1.5	2.2	3.4	92.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%