IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.5	#139
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.2	#310
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#187

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.2%	14.0%	7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.4	12.0	12.8

.500 or above	61.8%	76.2%	51.5%
.500 or above in Conference	64.6%	73.7%	58.0%
Conference Champion	12.3%	17.4%	8.7%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	3.0%	7.1%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
First Round	10.2%	13.9%	7.5%
Second Round	1.6%	2.5%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	7 - 7	8 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 2	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 15, 2025	81	New Mexico	L	70-72	42%
Nov 21, 2025	171	Samford	W	74-69	68%
Nov 25, 2025	92	UC Irvine	L	64-68	36%
Nov 26, 2025	283	Georgia St.	W	73-65	78%
Dec 02, 2025	167	South Alabama	W	63-61	57%
Dec 06, 2025	166	@ Abilene Christian	L	66-67	47%
Dec 13, 2025	150	Tulsa	W	67-66	54%
Dec 21, 2025	199	Sam Houston St.	W	71-64	71%
Jan 02, 2026	209	@ Florida International	W	67-66	54%
Jan 04, 2026	114	@ Missouri St.	L	60-65	35%
Jan 08, 2026	161	Western Kentucky	W	73-68	66%
Jan 10, 2026	151	Middle Tennessee	W	69-65	64%
Jan 15, 2026	100	@ Liberty	L	61-68	29%
Jan 17, 2026	236	@ Delaware	W	73-70	59%
Jan 22, 2026	114	Missouri St.	W	63-62	55%
Jan 24, 2026	209	Florida International	W	70-63	73%
Jan 28, 2026	236	Delaware	W	76-67	76%
Jan 31, 2026	146	@ Kennesaw St.	L	69-71	42%
Feb 04, 2026	144	@ Louisiana Tech	L	62-64	43%
Feb 07, 2026	160	@ UTEP	L	66-67	46%
Feb 11, 2026	100	Liberty	L	64-65	48%
Feb 14, 2026	154	@ Jacksonville St.	L	62-64	45%
Feb 21, 2026	160	UTEP	W	69-64	65%
Feb 26, 2026	161	@ Western Kentucky	L	70-71	47%
Feb 28, 2026	151	@ Middle Tennessee	L	66-68	44%
Mar 05, 2026	154	Jacksonville St.	W	65-61	64%
Mar 07, 2026	146	Kennesaw St.	W	72-68	62%
Projected Record						15 - 12	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.3	1.2	2.4	3.2	2.7	1.7	0.7	0.2		12.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	1.9	3.5	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.0				11.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.7	4.1	2.9	0.8	0.2						11.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.7	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.0							10.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	2.5	4.1	2.2	0.4	0.0								9.6	5th
6th									0.2	2.1	4.2	2.4	0.3	0.0									9.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.7	3.7	2.3	0.3	0.0										8.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.5	3.2	2.3	0.5	0.0											7.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	1.1	2.7	2.1	0.6	0.0												6.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	1.0	2.1	1.7	0.4	0.0													5.5	10th
11th			0.1	0.4	1.1	1.5	1.2	0.3	0.0														4.6	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.2																3.1	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.1	3.2	4.7	6.5	7.6	9.0	10.0	10.1	10.1	9.0	8.1	6.6	5.1	3.0	1.7	0.7	0.2			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.7		0.7	0.0
18-2	98.3%	1.7		1.5	0.1
17-3	87.5%	2.7		2.2	0.4	0.0
16-4	63.7%	3.2		1.9	1.2	0.2	0.0
15-5	35.9%	2.4		1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0
14-6	15.3%	1.2		0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.8%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.3%	12.3		7.7	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		82.2%	60.8%	21.4%	8.8					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		54.5%
19-1	0.7%		60.0%	52.9%	7.1%	10.4								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.3		15.1%
18-2	1.7%		51.0%	49.4%	1.6%	10.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0				0.8		3.2%
17-3	3.0%		34.2%	33.8%	0.5%	11.5										0.0	0.0	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0			2.0		0.7%
16-4	5.1%		31.6%	31.5%	0.1%	11.8											0.0	0.5	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0		3.5		0.2%
15-5	6.6%		22.3%	22.3%		12.2												0.2	0.8	0.5	0.0			5.1
14-6	8.1%		15.5%	15.5%		12.5												0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0		6.9
13-7	9.0%		13.9%	13.9%		12.9												0.0	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0		7.7
12-8	10.1%		7.5%	7.5%		13.1												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0		9.4
11-9	10.1%		5.2%	5.2%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.6
10-10	10.0%		4.2%	4.2%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.6
9-11	9.0%		2.2%	2.2%		15.3												0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	8.8
8-12	7.6%		1.6%	1.6%		16.2															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.5
7-13	6.5%		1.3%	1.3%		18.5																0.0	0.1	6.4
6-14	4.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
5-15	3.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
4-16	2.1%																							2.1
3-17	1.4%																							1.4
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.2%	10.1%	0.1%	12.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	2.1	3.6	2.4	1.0	0.4	0.3	89.8		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.6				40.0	20.0	20.0			20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	9.5								50.0			50.0
Lose Out	0.0%