Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#315
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#81
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#342
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 11.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.8 13.8 15.3
.500 or above 14.9% 51.9% 14.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.4% 61.3% 29.3%
Conference Champion 2.6% 18.6% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 24.1% 3.7% 24.1%
First Four1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round2.5% 11.2% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 19   @ Alabama L 71-99 0.4%   
  Nov 06, 2025 256   UC Riverside L 73-74 47%    
  Nov 09, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge L 77-82 33%    
  Nov 15, 2025 256   @ UC Riverside L 70-77 27%    
  Nov 19, 2025 25   @ Creighton L 62-89 1%    
  Nov 22, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 23, 2025 343   @ Western Illinois L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 29, 2025 141   @ Hawaii L 65-78 12%    
  Dec 03, 2025 239   @ Idaho L 71-79 25%    
  Dec 06, 2025 183   Montana L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 13, 2025 343   Western Illinois W 73-67 68%    
  Dec 18, 2025 164   Winthrop L 79-84 33%    
  Dec 21, 2025 59   @ Nebraska L 65-86 3%    
  Jan 01, 2026 318   Oral Roberts W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 03, 2026 155   South Dakota St. L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 08, 2026 177   @ Nebraska Omaha L 71-82 19%    
  Jan 10, 2026 300   @ UMKC L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 15, 2026 149   St. Thomas L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 17, 2026 294   South Dakota W 86-84 55%    
  Jan 22, 2026 318   @ Oral Roberts L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 24, 2026 322   @ Denver L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 29, 2026 149   @ St. Thomas L 70-82 15%    
  Feb 05, 2026 177   Nebraska Omaha L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 07, 2026 322   Denver W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 11, 2026 294   @ South Dakota L 83-87 35%    
  Feb 14, 2026 215   North Dakota St. L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 19, 2026 300   UMKC W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 21, 2026 155   @ South Dakota St. L 71-83 17%    
  Feb 28, 2026 215   @ North Dakota St. L 68-77 23%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 6.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 1.1 3.1 4.9 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.9 9th
Total 1.1 3.2 6.3 9.7 12.3 13.1 13.0 11.9 10.1 7.6 5.0 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 96.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-3 75.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
12-4 42.3% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 16.4% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 53.6% 53.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.4% 25.8% 25.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.0% 26.0% 26.0% 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
12-4 1.9% 14.0% 14.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-5 3.3% 14.0% 14.0% 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.9
10-6 5.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.6
9-7 7.6% 5.3% 5.3% 17.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.2
8-8 10.1% 3.1% 3.1% 18.0 0.0 0.3 9.8
7-9 11.9% 2.4% 2.4% 17.5 0.0 0.3 11.6
6-10 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.9
5-11 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
3-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
2-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
1-15 3.2% 3.2
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%