Preseason Rankings
North Texas
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#88
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace55.7#363
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 15.4% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 2.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.7
.500 or above 82.9% 85.3% 60.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 78.5% 60.5%
Conference Champion 16.9% 18.0% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.0% 5.9%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round14.2% 15.0% 6.9%
Second Round4.3% 4.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 49 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2025 257   Northwestern St. W 65-51 90%    
  Nov 09, 2025 94   Loyola Chicago W 62-59 62%    
  Nov 12, 2025 117   @ Oregon St. L 59-60 49%    
  Nov 14, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 51-59 23%    
  Nov 20, 2025 354   Central Arkansas W 72-50 98%    
  Nov 25, 2025 259   Eastern Washington W 69-55 89%    
  Nov 30, 2025 340   Prairie View W 74-54 96%    
  Dec 02, 2025 288   Houston Christian W 67-51 92%    
  Dec 07, 2025 56   TCU L 59-60 48%    
  Dec 14, 2025 167   @ South Alabama W 58-55 61%    
  Dec 17, 2025 106   Santa Clara W 64-63 55%    
  Dec 31, 2025 51   @ Memphis L 60-68 25%    
  Jan 04, 2026 150   Tulsa W 65-57 76%    
  Jan 07, 2026 95   South Florida W 64-61 61%    
  Jan 11, 2026 122   @ Wichita St. W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 18, 2026 115   @ Tulane L 62-63 48%    
  Jan 21, 2026 168   Texas San Antonio W 69-60 79%    
  Jan 24, 2026 158   East Carolina W 65-56 77%    
  Jan 28, 2026 150   @ Tulsa W 62-60 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 103   UAB W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 04, 2026 172   @ Rice W 63-59 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 168   @ Texas San Antonio W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 12, 2026 51   Memphis L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 15, 2026 133   @ Temple W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 18, 2026 115   Tulane W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 22, 2026 140   Florida Atlantic W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 25, 2026 192   @ Charlotte W 62-57 66%    
  Mar 01, 2026 103   @ UAB L 64-66 43%    
  Mar 04, 2026 172   Rice W 66-56 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.8 3.7 4.9 3.7 1.9 0.5 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.8 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.4 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 3.9 6.0 7.7 9.5 10.7 11.5 12.0 11.0 8.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.6% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 93.9% 3.7    3.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 72.7% 4.9    3.4 1.4 0.1
14-4 41.0% 3.7    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.8% 1.8    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.9 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 82.8% 57.7% 25.1% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 59.3%
17-1 1.9% 74.5% 55.1% 19.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 43.1%
16-2 3.9% 50.9% 37.0% 13.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 22.0%
15-3 6.7% 38.3% 31.6% 6.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.2 4.2 9.8%
14-4 8.9% 25.9% 23.1% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.6 3.6%
13-5 11.0% 18.4% 17.7% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.9%
12-6 12.0% 12.7% 12.5% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.5 0.2%
11-7 11.5% 9.5% 9.5% 12.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.4
10-8 10.7% 5.8% 5.8% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.1%
9-9 9.5% 3.5% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-10 7.7% 2.0% 2.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
7-11 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.6% 12.8% 1.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 5.8 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 85.4 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 20.0 20.0 40.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.2 16.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 32.6 34.9 32.6