Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#268
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#263
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#267
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 17.4% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 44.8% 71.9% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 76.1% 56.9%
Conference Champion 7.2% 14.4% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.5% 6.2%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
First Round9.7% 17.7% 8.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 411 - 712 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 111   @ Belmont L 73-86 12%    
  Nov 16, 2025 161   @ Western Kentucky L 75-83 22%    
  Nov 20, 2025 16   @ Tennessee L 56-82 1%    
  Nov 25, 2025 198   @ UNC Asheville L 73-80 28%    
  Nov 30, 2025 134   @ Chattanooga L 70-81 17%    
  Dec 03, 2025 327   @ Alabama A&M W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 13, 2025 86   @ UNLV L 64-79 9%    
  Dec 18, 2025 325   Tennessee Martin W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 20, 2025 228   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 03, 2026 162   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 08, 2026 343   @ Western Illinois W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 321   @ Eastern Illinois W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 15, 2026 291   Morehead St. W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 17, 2026 311   Southern Indiana W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 22, 2026 240   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 24, 2026 326   @ Lindenwood W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 27, 2026 324   Tennessee Tech W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 29, 2026 162   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 05, 2026 321   Eastern Illinois W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 07, 2026 343   Western Illinois W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 12, 2026 311   @ Southern Indiana L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 14, 2026 291   @ Morehead St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 19, 2026 326   Lindenwood W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 21, 2026 240   SIU Edwardsville W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 325   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-72 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 7.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.8 0.8 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.3 0.8 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 3.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.5 9.6 10.0 11.1 11.2 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 89.9% 1.3    1.1 0.2
16-4 68.3% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
15-5 42.1% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 52.0% 52.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.4% 50.5% 50.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 2.8% 39.8% 39.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.7
15-5 5.0% 33.4% 33.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 3.4
14-6 7.5% 26.8% 26.8% 16.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 5.5
13-7 9.2% 17.6% 17.6% 18.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 7.5
12-8 10.8% 9.6% 9.6% 18.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 9.7
11-9 11.2% 5.7% 5.7% 19.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.5
10-10 11.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.7
9-11 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 17.0 0.0 0.2 9.8
8-12 9.6% 0.9% 0.9% 17.3 0.1 9.5
7-13 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.4 4.0 90.3 0.0%