IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC San Diego
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.6	#119
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.9	#270
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.8	#135

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.8	#119

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.1%	19.1%	10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.4	12.4	13.0

.500 or above	81.3%	84.1%	59.1%
.500 or above in Conference	85.4%	86.8%	74.2%
Conference Champion	22.0%	23.3%	12.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.8%	2.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	18.0%	19.0%	10.1%
Second Round	2.6%	2.8%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	288	Houston Christian	W	72-59	89%
Nov 12, 2025	186	@ Fresno St.	W	73-72	55%
Nov 15, 2025	239	Idaho	W	75-65	81%
Nov 24, 2025	133	Temple	W	72-71	52%
Dec 02, 2025	104	@ Nevada	L	62-67	33%
Dec 06, 2025	264	@ Long Beach St.	W	68-63	67%
Dec 14, 2025	115	Tulane	L	69-70	48%
Dec 16, 2025	135	@ Loyola Marymount	L	67-69	43%
Dec 19, 2025	180	San Diego	W	77-70	72%
Jan 01, 2026	253	@ Cal Poly	W	80-76	65%
Jan 03, 2026	141	Hawaii	W	68-64	64%
Jan 08, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	75-59	92%
Jan 10, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	W	71-66	66%
Jan 15, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	77-70	71%
Jan 17, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	70-66	62%
Jan 22, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	W	69-64	65%
Jan 24, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	68-69	50%
Jan 29, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	W	69-66	61%
Jan 31, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	74-73	53%
Feb 05, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	71-60	82%
Feb 08, 2026	141	@ Hawaii	L	65-67	44%
Feb 12, 2026	255	UC Davis	W	72-61	80%
Feb 14, 2026	256	UC Riverside	W	74-63	80%
Feb 21, 2026	92	@ UC Irvine	L	65-71	31%
Feb 26, 2026	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	73-63	78%
Feb 28, 2026	253	Cal Poly	W	83-73	80%
Mar 05, 2026	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	72-62	80%
Mar 07, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	66-69	42%
Projected Record						18 - 10	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.8	2.7	4.6	5.7	4.8	2.6	0.7		22.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	1.9	5.0	6.4	4.5	1.8	0.4				20.4	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.5	2.7	5.4	4.8	2.2	0.6	0.0					16.3	3rd
4th										0.1	0.6	2.6	4.7	3.2	1.1	0.1							12.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	2.7	4.1	2.1	0.4	0.0								10.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	2.1	2.8	1.2	0.2	0.0									6.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.7	2.0	0.8	0.1											5.0	7th
8th						0.1	0.4	1.2	1.2	0.4	0.0												3.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.2	0.0													2.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.2	10th
11th			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.5	11th

Total			0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.5	3.7	5.3	6.9	8.6	10.1	11.1	11.7	11.4	9.8	7.5	5.1	2.6	0.7			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
19-1	100.0%	2.6		2.6	0.1
18-2	92.9%	4.8		4.2	0.6
17-3	76.3%	5.7		4.0	1.7	0.1
16-4	47.5%	4.6		2.4	1.9	0.3	0.0
15-5	23.3%	2.7		0.9	1.2	0.5	0.0
14-6	7.2%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1
13-7	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	22.0%	22.0		15.0	5.7	1.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.7%		75.0%	69.0%	6.0%	9.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0					0.2		19.4%
19-1	2.6%		59.3%	56.7%	2.7%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.1				1.1		6.1%
18-2	5.1%		46.6%	45.8%	0.8%	11.7									0.0		0.0	0.9	1.2	0.2	0.0			2.7		1.5%
17-3	7.5%		40.4%	40.4%		12.1											0.0	0.5	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.0		4.5
16-4	9.8%		32.7%	32.7%		12.4												0.2	1.7	1.0	0.2	0.0		6.6
15-5	11.4%		26.5%	26.5%		12.9												0.1	1.0	1.2	0.6	0.1		8.4
14-6	11.7%		16.9%	16.9%		13.1												0.0	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.1		9.7
13-7	11.1%		10.4%	10.4%		13.5													0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	9.9
12-8	10.1%		6.0%	6.0%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	9.5
11-9	8.6%		4.3%	4.3%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.2
10-10	6.9%		2.6%	2.6%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	6.7
9-11	5.3%		1.5%	1.5%		17.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.2
8-12	3.7%		0.6%	0.6%		15.0																0.0		3.7
7-13	2.5%																							2.5
6-14	1.5%																							1.5
5-15	0.8%																							0.8
4-16	0.4%																							0.4
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		18.1%	17.9%	0.2%	12.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	2.7	6.7	4.8	2.2	0.9	0.1	81.9		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.2			14.4	21.3	21.3	6.9	0.5	13.9	0.5	7.4	13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	51.7%	9.9									3.4	48.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	25.0%	9.0									25.0