Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#293
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#131
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.1 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 18.4% 27.7% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 33.7% 20.9%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 15.0% 25.6%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round2.3% 3.2% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 311   @ Southern Indiana L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 09, 2025 37   @ Missouri L 63-87 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 245   Jacksonville W 70-69 52%    
  Nov 19, 2025 131   @ Richmond L 62-74 13%    
  Nov 22, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 24, 2025 337   Buffalo W 76-73 63%    
  Nov 26, 2025 212   Bowling Green L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 29, 2025 74   @ Central Florida L 68-86 6%    
  Dec 09, 2025 316   Loyola Maryland W 72-68 66%    
  Dec 21, 2025 148   @ Radford L 62-73 17%    
  Jan 01, 2026 171   Samford L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 03, 2026 134   Chattanooga L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 07, 2026 156   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 10, 2026 142   @ Furman L 65-77 16%    
  Jan 15, 2026 246   Mercer W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 17, 2026 342   The Citadel W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 21, 2026 232   UNC Greensboro L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 24, 2026 262   @ Western Carolina L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 29, 2026 342   @ The Citadel W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 31, 2026 246   @ Mercer L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 04, 2026 205   Wofford L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 07, 2026 156   East Tennessee St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 11, 2026 232   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 14, 2026 142   Furman L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 18, 2026 205   @ Wofford L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 21, 2026 262   Western Carolina W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 26, 2026 171   @ Samford L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 28, 2026 134   @ Chattanooga L 67-79 16%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.1 1.3 0.2 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.8 1.9 0.2 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.4 5.8 2.0 0.2 15.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 4.1 6.0 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.9 2.7 4.3 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.9 2.8 5.6 8.2 10.4 11.6 12.4 11.2 10.5 8.3 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 90.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 61.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 33.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 19.9% 19.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 24.1% 24.1% 13.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 0.8% 21.1% 21.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.8% 12.5% 12.5% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6
12-6 3.2% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.8
11-7 4.6% 5.9% 5.9% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
10-8 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 18.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.3
9-9 8.3% 3.5% 3.5% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.0
8-10 10.5% 2.6% 2.6% 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.3
7-11 11.2% 0.7% 0.7% 17.3 0.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 8.2% 8.2
2-16 5.6% 5.6
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%