IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.6	#226
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	77.4	#13
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#166

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#292

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.3%	5.7%	3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.6	14.3

.500 or above	33.2%	46.6%	22.2%
.500 or above in Conference	52.5%	61.4%	45.1%
Conference Champion	5.1%	7.3%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	5.9%	3.4%	7.9%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	4.3%	5.7%	3.1%
Second Round	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 5	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	260	@ Norfolk St.	L	75-76	45%
Nov 11, 2025	131	@ Richmond	L	68-77	21%
Nov 15, 2025	8	@ St. John's	L	67-92	1%
Nov 19, 2025	212	@ Bowling Green	L	76-80	38%
Nov 24, 2025	160	UTEP	L	75-78	38%
Nov 25, 2025	166	Abilene Christian	L	75-78	40%
Nov 30, 2025	195	Old Dominion	W	77-75	55%
Dec 02, 2025	116	@ Duquesne	L	69-79	19%
Dec 06, 2025	85	@ George Washington	L	72-85	13%
Dec 18, 2025	148	Radford	L	72-73	45%
Dec 29, 2025	136	Towson	L	71-73	42%
Dec 31, 2025	298	Stony Brook	W	78-71	73%
Jan 05, 2026	123	@ College of Charleston	L	77-86	22%
Jan 08, 2026	210	@ Monmouth	L	75-79	38%
Jan 10, 2026	225	@ Drexel	L	69-72	40%
Jan 15, 2026	349	N.C. A&T	W	85-73	83%
Jan 22, 2026	120	UNC Wilmington	L	74-77	39%
Jan 24, 2026	182	Hofstra	W	70-69	53%
Jan 29, 2026	224	@ Elon	L	73-76	39%
Jan 31, 2026	200	Campbell	W	76-74	56%
Feb 05, 2026	120	@ UNC Wilmington	L	71-80	22%
Feb 07, 2026	235	@ Hampton	L	73-76	42%
Feb 12, 2026	218	@ Northeastern	L	75-78	39%
Feb 14, 2026	224	Elon	W	76-73	59%
Feb 19, 2026	200	@ Campbell	L	73-77	36%
Feb 26, 2026	218	Northeastern	W	78-75	58%
Feb 28, 2026	349	@ N.C. A&T	W	82-76	68%
Mar 03, 2026	235	Hampton	W	76-73	61%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.1		5.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.4	2.5	1.8	0.6	0.1				6.7	2nd
3rd											0.2	2.0	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.0	0.0				8.1	3rd
4th										0.2	1.8	3.9	2.2	0.4	0.0						8.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.7	4.4	2.7	0.4	0.0							9.4	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	4.4	3.1	0.5	0.0								9.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.8	4.1	1.0	0.0									9.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	3.2	3.9	1.4	0.0										9.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	2.4	4.5	1.8	0.1											9.1	9th
10th					0.3	2.2	4.0	2.1	0.2												8.9	10th
11th			0.0	0.4	1.7	3.2	2.0	0.3	0.0												7.4	11th
12th		0.0	0.4	1.5	2.0	1.4	0.3	0.0													5.6	12th
13th	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.1															3.3	13th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.5	2.8	4.5	7.2	9.1	10.9	10.9	11.9	10.7	9.5	7.5	5.8	3.6	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.3	0.1
16-2	89.2%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
15-3	67.0%	1.3		0.9	0.4	0.0
14-4	38.7%	1.4		0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0
13-5	13.6%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.1%	5.1		2.7	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		53.3%	53.3%		11.1											0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0
17-1	0.4%		41.0%	41.0%		11.9												0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2
16-2	1.0%		33.1%	33.1%		12.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1			0.7
15-3	2.0%		23.1%	23.1%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.5
14-4	3.6%		19.2%	19.2%		13.5													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	2.9
13-5	5.8%		11.4%	11.4%		13.9													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	5.2
12-6	7.5%		8.9%	8.9%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	6.9
11-7	9.5%		5.6%	5.6%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	8.9
10-8	10.7%		3.4%	3.4%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.3
9-9	11.9%		1.8%	1.8%		16.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.7
8-10	10.9%		1.0%	1.0%		16.9																0.0	0.1	10.8
7-11	10.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.8
6-12	9.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
5-13	7.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
4-14	4.5%																							4.5
3-15	2.8%																							2.8
2-16	1.5%																							1.5
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.3%	4.3%	0.0%	14.1											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.3	0.9	0.5	95.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%