Penn
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
23  Thomas Awad SR 31:17
124  Nicholas Tuck JR 31:57
238  Brendan Shearn JR 32:23
308  Brendan Smith SR 32:34
472  Patrick Hally SO 32:56
557  Ross Wilson SO 33:05
560  Clark Shurtleff SR 33:06
716  Kevin Monogue FR 33:22
922  Kurt Convey FR 33:40
988  Christopher Hatler JR 33:46
1,180  Christopher Luciano SO 34:02
1,252  Sam Webb FR 34:08
1,532  Keaton Naff SR 34:33
1,564  Kirk Webb SR 34:36
1,573  Lyle Wistar JR 34:37
1,737  William Meadows SR 34:53
1,798  Thomas Connelly SO 35:00
2,140  Thomas Mulroy SO 35:37
2,270  Robert Klopf FR 35:57
2,459  Paul Ehmann FR 36:27
2,531  John Huemmler JR 36:44
2,556  Joe Novak FR 36:51
National Rank #33 of 308
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #3 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 30.3%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 7.9%


Regional Champion 3.7%
Top 5 in Regional 96.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Thomas Awad Nicholas Tuck Brendan Shearn Brendan Smith Patrick Hally Ross Wilson Clark Shurtleff Kevin Monogue Kurt Convey Christopher Hatler Christopher Luciano
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 812 31:53 32:08 32:38 32:37 33:25 33:42 33:17 33:23
Leopard Invitational 10/17 1204 33:30 34:02
Princeton Invitational 10/17 849 32:29 32:15 32:30 32:52 32:39 33:09 32:46 33:30
Ivy League Championships 10/30 631 31:17 32:10 32:05 32:29 32:37 32:28 32:35 33:12 33:54 34:21 34:09
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/13 711 31:54 32:00 32:19 32:27 32:46 32:39 34:20
NCAA Championship 11/21 644 30:57 31:36 32:26 32:32 33:35 33:47 33:19





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 30.3% 23.3 544 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.5
Region Championship 100% 3.2 88 3.7 26.3 32.4 24.2 10.1 3.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Awad 99.8% 26.4 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.7
Nicholas Tuck 71.1% 102.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brendan Shearn 37.4% 154.1
Brendan Smith 31.4% 179.1
Patrick Hally 30.3% 213.6
Ross Wilson 30.3% 223.7
Clark Shurtleff 30.3% 223.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Thomas Awad 2.7 0.9 21.5 40.1 20.3 8.4 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholas Tuck 6.8 0.1 1.0 7.0 15.4 16.7 11.6 8.8 6.5 4.6 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6
Brendan Shearn 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.3
Brendan Smith 21.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 3.0
Patrick Hally 35.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7
Ross Wilson 42.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1
Clark Shurtleff 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 3.7% 100.0% 3.7 3.7 1
2 26.3% 100.0% 26.3 26.3 2
3 32.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 32.1 0.2 3
4 24.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 24.2 0.1 4
5 10.1% 10.1 5
6 3.3% 3.3 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 30.3% 3.7 26.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 69.7 30.0 0.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Villanova 50.6% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.8
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0