Illinois
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
121  Dylan Lafond SR 31:55
171  Jonathan Davis FR 32:07
188  Jesse Reiser SO 32:11
238  Sean Pengelly SR 32:20
317  Zack Smith SO 32:34
321  Dan Lathrop SO 32:34
326  Alex Gold JR 32:35
342  Zach Dale FR 32:37
358  Billy Magnesen SO 32:39
664  Garrett Lee JR 33:13
971  Joe Cowlin JR 33:41
1,148  Caleb Hummer FR 33:56
National Rank #34 of 312
Midwest Region Rank #5 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 49.6%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 14.2%


Regional Champion 6.0%
Top 5 in Regional 84.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Dylan Lafond Jonathan Davis Jesse Reiser Sean Pengelly Zack Smith Dan Lathrop Alex Gold Zach Dale Billy Magnesen Garrett Lee Joe Cowlin
Kentucky Bluegrass Invitational 09/10 659 31:46 32:11 32:10 32:55 32:18 33:07 32:24 33:56
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 693 32:53 32:31 31:50 31:59 32:57 33:46 32:15 32:34 32:52
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 582 31:55 31:52 31:54 32:08 32:22 32:18 32:19 32:25 32:45
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 1065 32:58 32:41 33:00 33:42
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 843 32:12 32:38 32:46 32:24 32:48 32:36 33:09
Illini Open 10/21 33:29 33:38
Big 10 Championship 10/30 670 31:46 32:00 32:37 32:21 32:17 32:30 32:56 32:28 32:43
Midwest Region Championships 11/11 638 31:44 32:03 32:10 32:50 33:03 32:14 32:27





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 49.6% 22.9 558 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.1 3.6 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.2 2.7 1.1
Region Championship 100% 3.8 122 6.0 14.8 24.1 21.9 17.8 10.8 3.6 0.9 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dylan Lafond 58.9% 96.6 0.1 0.2 0.2
Jonathan Davis 51.4% 122.0
Jesse Reiser 50.3% 131.8
Sean Pengelly 49.6% 156.7
Zack Smith 49.6% 188.2
Dan Lathrop 49.6% 187.4
Alex Gold 49.6% 190.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dylan Lafond 11.7 0.9 2.8 4.6 5.9 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.2 5.2 4.3 3.5 3.9 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.1 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4
Jonathan Davis 18.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.0 4.4 3.6 4.1 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.4 3.2 2.3 2.5
Jesse Reiser 21.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.6
Sean Pengelly 28.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.5 2.3 2.8
Zack Smith 40.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8
Dan Lathrop 41.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8
Alex Gold 42.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 6.0% 100.0% 6.0 6.0 1
2 14.8% 100.0% 14.8 14.8 2
3 24.1% 73.9% 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.1 3.5 6.3 17.8 3
4 21.9% 37.2% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 3.4 13.8 8.2 4
5 17.8% 15.2% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 15.1 2.7 5
6 10.8% 1.4% 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.2 6
7 3.6% 3.6 7
8 0.9% 0.9 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 49.6% 6.0 14.8 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.1 3.4 5.2 8.6 50.5 20.8 28.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Texas 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 2.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 5.3
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 9.0