Navy
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
207  Kevin Murray SO 32:11
278  Jake Brophy SO 32:23
299  Cory Donley SR 32:26
359  Josh Hanna SR 32:34
451  Gabriel Collison SR 32:43
827  Michael Karls JR 33:25
899  Jacob Shewbert SO 33:30
1,545  Julian Perez FR 34:23
1,551  Connor Nicholson SO 34:23
1,692  Daniel Helfand JR 34:37
1,697  Quinn Schneider FR 34:37
2,476  Benjamin Cracraft FR 36:20
National Rank #50 of 315
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #4 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 32.9%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.5%


Regional Champion 15.4%
Top 5 in Regional 86.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kevin Murray Jake Brophy Cory Donley Josh Hanna Gabriel Collison Michael Karls Jacob Shewbert Julian Perez Connor Nicholson Daniel Helfand Quinn Schneider
Navy Invitational 09/09 806 32:04 32:08 32:45 32:45 32:37 33:33 33:24 34:13 34:33 35:49 34:02
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 724 31:57 32:29 32:23 31:48 33:21 32:59 34:22 34:29 34:05
Paul Short Gold 09/29 786 32:01 32:24 32:22 32:18 32:59 33:05 33:03 34:24 34:48 35:10
Patriot League Championship 10/28 818 32:15 32:24 32:04 33:07 32:39 33:29 33:41 34:34 34:09 34:14 35:11
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/10 816 32:29 32:21 32:21 32:33 32:27 33:16 33:37





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 32.9% 28.7 729 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 3.5 4.3 6.0 10.9
Region Championship 100% 3.5 116 15.4 17.6 19.9 19.3 14.8 9.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kevin Murray 54.4% 138.2
Jake Brophy 38.6% 167.5
Cory Donley 36.5% 169.8
Josh Hanna 33.4% 185.6
Gabriel Collison 32.9% 207.3
Michael Karls 33.4% 243.1
Jacob Shewbert 33.5% 244.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kevin Murray 8.1 2.2 6.3 7.1 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.9 5.6 5.7 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1
Jake Brophy 15.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.5 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.2
Cory Donley 17.4 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 3.0 2.0 2.2
Josh Hanna 23.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 2.1 3.0
Gabriel Collison 31.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3
Michael Karls 68.7
Jacob Shewbert 74.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 15.4% 100.0% 15.4 15.4 1
2 17.6% 100.0% 17.6 17.6 2
3 19.9% 19.9 3
4 19.3% 19.3 4
5 14.8% 14.8 5
6 9.4% 9.4 6
7 2.6% 2.6 7
8 1.0% 1.0 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 32.9% 15.4 17.6 67.1 32.9 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Villanova 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Tennessee 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Army West Point 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Georgia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.0
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0