Michigan State
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
22  Alexis Wiersma JR 19:33
112  Shelby Jackson JR 20:03
127  Katie Landwehr SR 20:07
192  Lynsie Gram FR 20:18
299  Kelsie Schwartz SO 20:35
304  Aubrey Wilberding SO 20:35
434  Amber Way FR 20:49
463  Raquel Serna SO 20:51
608  Jenny Rogers FR 21:04
1,094  Kennedy Beazley FR 21:42
1,155  Molly Jeakle JR 21:46
National Rank #15 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #3 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 96.4%
Most Likely Finish 15th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 4.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 20.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 73.5%


Regional Champion 11.4%
Top 5 in Regional 98.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Alexis Wiersma Shelby Jackson Katie Landwehr Lynsie Gram Kelsie Schwartz Aubrey Wilberding Amber Way Raquel Serna Jenny Rogers Kennedy Beazley Molly Jeakle
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 508 19:37 20:30 20:27 20:42 20:54 21:28
Michigan Intercollegiate Championships 10/09 1253
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 606 19:42 20:05 20:15 20:34 21:01 20:51 21:42
Big Ten Championships 11/01 561 19:23 20:04 20:24 20:41 20:48 20:36 20:32 21:06 22:11
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 426 19:38 19:54 20:00 20:10 20:34 20:29 21:00
NCAA Championship 11/21 455 19:28 19:57 20:00 20:15 20:40 20:48 20:52





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 96.4% 15.8 423 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.3 4.9 5.5 6.6 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.8 96 11.4 28.3 40.1 13.9 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alexis Wiersma 99.8% 25.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.0
Shelby Jackson 96.6% 96.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Katie Landwehr 96.5% 110.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Lynsie Gram 96.4% 142.2 0.0 0.0
Kelsie Schwartz 96.4% 186.4
Aubrey Wilberding 96.4% 187.1
Amber Way 96.4% 213.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alexis Wiersma 3.3 2.4 20.2 22.3 19.1 11.7 7.9 5.0 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shelby Jackson 13.2 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7
Katie Landwehr 15.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.1
Lynsie Gram 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.6
Kelsie Schwartz 38.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.1
Aubrey Wilberding 39.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.2
Amber Way 52.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 11.4% 100.0% 11.4 11.4 1
2 28.3% 100.0% 28.3 28.3 2
3 40.1% 98.8% 0.3 1.7 4.3 8.0 9.0 5.4 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.5 39.6 3
4 13.9% 98.1% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 13.7 4
5 4.6% 70.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.2 5
6 1.3% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 6
7 0.3% 6.7% 0.0 0.3 0.0 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 96.4% 11.4 28.3 0.3 1.8 4.7 8.9 10.6 7.3 5.8 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 39.7 56.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 93.0% 3.0 2.8
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
Weber State 40.5% 1.0 0.4
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 2.0 0.2
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 2.0 0.1
California 5.3% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 6.8
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 14.0