Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Oregon 100.0%   2   27 - 6 14 - 4 27 - 6 14 - 4 +17.0      +10.9 8 +6.1 36 70.7 155 +17.6 10 +17.9 1
12 Arizona 100.0%   6   25 - 8 12 - 6 25 - 8 12 - 6 +16.4      +9.8 15 +6.6 33 70.0 174 +14.3 24 +13.6 4
23 California 100.0%   5   23 - 10 12 - 6 23 - 10 12 - 6 +14.7      +5.8 49 +8.9 7 70.8 153 +13.3 26 +15.0 3
26 Utah 100.0%   3   25 - 8 13 - 5 25 - 8 13 - 5 +14.2      +8.4 24 +5.8 39 65.6 287 +16.5 11 +16.0 2
41 USC 91.3%   9   21 - 12 9 - 9 21 - 12 9 - 9 +10.9      +6.9 35 +4.0 73 77.1 48 +11.0 43 +9.9 9
47 Colorado 91.5%   9   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +10.5      +3.2 93 +7.3 22 72.4 115 +11.9 37 +11.9 5
56 Washington 4.2%   18 - 14 9 - 9 18 - 14 9 - 9 +9.7      +4.3 74 +5.5 43 90.9 4 +9.0 63 +10.2 7
57 Oregon St. 97.5%   8   18 - 12 9 - 9 18 - 12 9 - 9 +9.4      +4.6 69 +4.8 55 68.7 213 +11.3 42 +11.1 6
63 UCLA 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 +8.5      +5.9 46 +2.6 108 72.5 113 +7.4 81 +5.9 10
86 Arizona St. 0.0%   15 - 17 5 - 13 15 - 17 5 - 13 +6.6      +3.5 91 +3.1 94 70.1 172 +7.1 84 +4.1 11
89 Stanford 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 10 14 - 15 8 - 10 +6.3      +3.0 99 +3.3 88 65.3 295 +8.8 67 +10.1 8
169 Washington St. 0.0%   8 - 22 1 - 17 8 - 22 1 - 17 -0.5      -0.3 180 -0.2 183 72.0 129 -1.0 178 -5.2 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 1.0 100.0
Arizona 3.0 100.0
California 3.0 100.0
Utah 2.0 100.0
USC 6.0 100.0
Colorado 5.0 100.0
Washington 6.0 100.0
Oregon St. 6.0 100.0
UCLA 10.0 100.0
Arizona St. 11.0 100.0
Stanford 9.0 100.0
Washington St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oregon 14 - 4 100.0
Arizona 12 - 6 100.0
California 12 - 6 100.0
Utah 13 - 5 100.0
USC 9 - 9 100.0
Colorado 10 - 8 100.0
Washington 9 - 9 100.0
Oregon St. 9 - 9 100.0
UCLA 6 - 12 100.0
Arizona St. 5 - 13 100.0
Stanford 8 - 10 100.0
Washington St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 100.0% 100.0
Arizona
California
Utah
USC
Colorado
Washington
Oregon St.
UCLA
Arizona St.
Stanford
Washington St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   42.6 49.9 7.5 0.1
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.4 5.9 16.9 52.0 24.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
California 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 4.2 32.5 42.7 20.0 0.6 100.0%
Utah 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.7 9.3 71.7 17.9 0.4 100.0%
USC 91.3% 0.0% 91.3% 9   0.0 2.0 15.9 36.3 32.5 4.6 8.7 91.3%
Colorado 91.5% 0.0% 91.5% 9   0.1 8.0 29.2 35.1 17.1 1.9 8.5 91.5%
Washington 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0 3.0 1.1 0.0 95.8 4.2%
Oregon St. 97.5% 0.0% 97.5% 8   0.4 15.4 44.7 30.7 6.2 0.2 2.5 97.5%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.9% 66.9% 38.7% 19.4% 8.7% 3.9%
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.2% 38.9% 19.4% 8.9% 4.2% 1.8%
California 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 76.2% 39.8% 15.8% 6.6% 2.5% 1.0%
Utah 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 82.3% 44.2% 17.9% 6.9% 2.5% 0.9%
USC 91.3% 2.1% 90.1% 43.8% 10.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado 91.5% 0.9% 91.0% 42.9% 8.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 4.2% 4.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 97.5% 0.1% 97.4% 41.6% 7.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.9 17.1 78.7 3.3
1st Round 100.0% 6.8 0.0 1.0 19.0 78.4 1.6
2nd Round 100.0% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.7 12.7 30.3 35.1 16.7 2.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.1% 2.2 3.9 21.7 38.4 27.2 7.7 1.0 0.0
Elite Eight 71.5% 1.0 28.5 46.5 21.2 3.5 0.2 0.0
Final Four 39.1% 0.4 60.9 34.2 4.7 0.2 0.0
Final Game 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.2 0.7
Champion 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7