Pre-tourney Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#12
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#24
Pace70.0#174
Improvement+2.3#84

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#15
First Shot+7.6#17
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#33
Layup/Dunks+2.4#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement+2.7#58

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#33
First Shot+5.0#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#41
Layups/Dunks+4.9#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#55
Freethrows+2.8#33
Improvement-0.4#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 6.4% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 75.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round74.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen38.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight19.4% n/a n/a
Final Four8.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game4.2% n/a n/a
National Champion1.8% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 218   Pacific W 79-61 97%     1 - 0 +11.6 -0.4 +11.0
  Nov 16, 2015 314   Bradley W 90-60 99%     2 - 0 +16.8 +11.1 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2015 94   Boise St. W 88-76 89%     3 - 0 +14.9 +15.0 -0.2
  Nov 22, 2015 340   Northwestern St. W 61-42 99%     4 - 0 +2.2 -15.4 +20.2
  Nov 26, 2015 232   Santa Clara W 75-73 OT 96%     5 - 0 -2.3 -9.1 +6.5
  Nov 27, 2015 51   Providence L 65-69 73%     5 - 1 +6.0 +1.6 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2015 94   Boise St. W 68-59 84%     6 - 1 +14.9 -4.6 +19.1
  Dec 05, 2015 27   @ Gonzaga W 68-63 50%     7 - 1 +21.4 +0.5 +20.9
  Dec 09, 2015 102   Fresno St. W 85-72 90%     8 - 1 +15.2 +11.1 +3.6
  Dec 13, 2015 143   Missouri W 88-52 94%     9 - 1 +34.4 +11.9 +21.4
  Dec 16, 2015 345   Northern Arizona W 92-37 99.5%    10 - 1 +37.2 +15.4 +24.5
  Dec 19, 2015 115   UNLV W 82-70 92%     11 - 1 +12.5 +4.9 +6.5
  Dec 22, 2015 108   Long Beach St. W 85-70 91%     12 - 1 +16.4 +8.9 +6.7
  Jan 03, 2016 86   @ Arizona St. W 94-82 75%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +21.5 +23.0 -1.9
  Jan 07, 2016 63   @ UCLA L 84-87 68%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +8.4 +14.9 -6.4
  Jan 09, 2016 41   @ USC L 101-103 4OT 60%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +11.8 +6.2 +6.2
  Jan 14, 2016 56   Washington W 99-67 82%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +38.8 +19.8 +15.7
  Jan 16, 2016 169   Washington St. W 90-66 96%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +20.5 +14.7 +5.6
  Jan 21, 2016 89   @ Stanford W 71-57 75%     16 - 3 4 - 2 +23.2 +3.3 +19.9
  Jan 23, 2016 23   @ California L 73-74 45%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +16.6 +17.0 -0.5
  Jan 28, 2016 10   Oregon L 75-83 59%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +6.1 +8.8 -2.9
  Jan 30, 2016 57   Oregon St. W 80-63 82%     17 - 5 5 - 4 +23.5 +13.0 +11.0
  Feb 03, 2016 169   @ Washington St. W 79-64 90%     18 - 5 6 - 4 +17.4 -1.0 +16.8
  Feb 06, 2016 56   @ Washington W 77-72 64%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +17.7 +2.4 +14.7
  Feb 12, 2016 63   UCLA W 81-75 84%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +11.6 +3.0 +8.2
  Feb 14, 2016 41   USC W 86-78 79%     21 - 5 9 - 4 +16.0 +9.7 +5.8
  Feb 17, 2016 86   Arizona St. W 99-61 88%     22 - 5 10 - 4 +41.6 +27.6 +14.0
  Feb 24, 2016 47   @ Colorado L 72-75 61%     22 - 6 10 - 5 +10.4 +6.7 +3.8
  Feb 27, 2016 26   @ Utah L 64-70 47%     22 - 7 10 - 6 +11.1 +2.6 +8.1
  Mar 03, 2016 23   California W 64-61 67%     23 - 7 11 - 6 +14.8 +2.9 +12.1
  Mar 05, 2016 89   Stanford W 94-62 88%     24 - 7 12 - 6 +35.4 +26.0 +10.3
  Mar 10, 2016 47   Colorado W 82-78 71%     25 - 7 +14.5 +9.2 +5.0
  Mar 11, 2016 10   Oregon L 89-95 OT 48%     25 - 8 +11.0 +11.2 +0.5
Projected Record 25.0 - 8.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 6.0 0.4 5.9 16.9 52.0 24.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 0.4 5.9 16.9 52.0 24.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%