Pre-tourney Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#32
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#44
Pace63.9#317
Improvement-4.1#317

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#89
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#9
Layup/Dunks-0.3#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
Freethrows-0.1#175
Improvement-4.5#334

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#11
First Shot+8.2#7
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#136
Layups/Dunks+5.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.2% n/a n/a
First Round76.3% n/a n/a
Second Round39.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen11.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.3% n/a n/a
Final Four1.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.4% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 194   Western Carolina W 97-72 94%     1 - 0 +20.0 +14.2 +3.7
  Nov 15, 2015 306   Robert Morris W 106-44 98%     2 - 0 +49.6 +22.9 +21.6
  Nov 18, 2015 246   @ Bowling Green W 83-50 90%     3 - 0 +31.1 +5.9 +23.7
  Nov 22, 2015 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 99-50 99%     4 - 0 +31.2 +6.2 +17.4
  Nov 24, 2015 322   SE Louisiana W 64-49 98%     5 - 0 +0.8 -3.4 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2015 79   Nebraska W 65-61 69%     6 - 0 +11.0 +1.7 +9.7
  Nov 28, 2015 72   George Washington W 61-56 67%     7 - 0 +12.8 -0.1 +13.6
  Dec 02, 2015 31   Butler L 76-78 60%     7 - 1 +7.5 +5.4 +2.1
  Dec 06, 2015 305   Morgan St. W 87-66 98%     8 - 1 +8.6 +9.9 -1.3
  Dec 12, 2015 15   @ Xavier L 55-65 26%     8 - 2 +8.7 -2.5 +9.9
  Dec 15, 2015 241   Norfolk St. W 75-59 96%     9 - 2 +8.4 -5.1 +13.3
  Dec 19, 2015 35   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 69-63 40%     10 - 2 +20.6 +12.2 +9.1
  Dec 22, 2015 18   Iowa St. L 79-81 49%     10 - 3 +10.5 +8.9 +1.5
  Dec 29, 2015 84   Temple L 70-77 79%     10 - 4 0 - 1 -3.3 +10.5 -14.7
  Jan 02, 2016 64   Tulsa W 76-57 74%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +24.5 +6.6 +18.3
  Jan 07, 2016 19   @ SMU L 57-59 28%     11 - 5 1 - 2 +16.1 +0.5 +15.2
  Jan 10, 2016 215   @ South Florida W 54-51 88%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +2.5 -9.5 +12.4
  Jan 13, 2016 59   Houston W 70-59 71%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +17.3 +4.7 +14.0
  Jan 16, 2016 84   @ Temple L 65-67 2OT 60%     13 - 6 3 - 3 +7.5 -9.2 +16.9
  Jan 21, 2016 71   Memphis W 76-72 75%     14 - 6 4 - 3 +9.0 +5.9 +3.0
  Jan 24, 2016 192   Tulane W 97-75 93%     15 - 6 5 - 3 +17.2 +18.9 -3.2
  Jan 28, 2016 29   @ Connecticut W 58-57 36%     16 - 6 6 - 3 +16.9 -1.7 +18.7
  Feb 04, 2016 215   South Florida W 88-57 95%     17 - 6 7 - 3 +24.7 +15.6 +9.5
  Feb 06, 2016 71   @ Memphis L 59-63 55%     17 - 7 7 - 4 +6.8 -3.8 +10.4
  Feb 09, 2016 173   @ Central Florida W 69-51 83%     18 - 7 8 - 4 +20.2 +2.9 +18.3
  Feb 13, 2016 185   East Carolina W 75-60 93%     19 - 7 9 - 4 +10.6 +4.0 +7.5
  Feb 18, 2016 64   @ Tulsa L 68-70 OT 53%     19 - 8 9 - 5 +9.3 -5.7 +15.2
  Feb 20, 2016 29   Connecticut W 65-60 58%     20 - 8 10 - 5 +15.0 +5.7 +9.9
  Feb 27, 2016 185   @ East Carolina W 65-56 84%     21 - 8 11 - 5 +10.5 +1.6 +10.2
  Mar 03, 2016 59   @ Houston L 56-69 50%     21 - 9 11 - 6 -0.8 -6.3 +3.6
  Mar 06, 2016 19   SMU W 61-54 50%     22 - 9 12 - 6 +19.2 -5.6 +25.1
  Mar 11, 2016 29   Connecticut L 97-104 4OT 47%     22 - 10 +6.0 +10.7 -3.2
Projected Record 22.0 - 10.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 80.1% 80.1% 9.7 0.0 1.1 9.1 21.2 33.8 14.9 0.0 19.9 80.1%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 80.1% 0.0% 80.1% 9.7 0.0 1.1 9.1 21.2 33.8 14.9 0.0 19.9 80.1%