Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
67 Wofford 37.5%   12   5 - 3 1 - 0 19 - 8 14 - 4 +7.2      +4.9 52 +2.3 103 64.8 308 +10.5 62 +19.0 1
88 UNC Greensboro 28.4%   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +5.8      +3.0 96 +2.8 90 68.6 215 +10.7 61 0.0 5
104 Furman 27.0%   7 - 0 1 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 5 +4.8      +2.3 110 +2.5 101 70.0 177 +23.0 9 +8.5 3
125 East Tennessee St. 13.3%   6 - 3 0 - 1 18 - 10 11 - 7 +3.1      -0.9 196 +4.0 72 67.8 241 +6.7 102 -8.6 7
183 The Citadel 3.8%   4 - 2 1 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 9 -1.4      +4.4 61 -5.9 325 91.5 4 +8.2 81 +12.8 2
189 Samford 2.9%   7 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1.7      -0.6 187 -1.1 201 72.9 114 +6.5 104 0.0 5
213 Mercer 1.7%   2 - 6 0 - 1 10 - 18 8 - 10 -3.1      -2.9 253 -0.1 170 63.9 319 -10.8 296 -17.3 9
294 Western Carolina 0.3%   2 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 13 -7.4      -5.3 308 -2.1 238 76.3 53 -9.2 278 -11.1 8
315 Chattanooga 0.1%   3 - 5 1 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -9.2      -7.1 331 -2.1 237 68.5 218 -10.1 290 +5.4 4
321 VMI 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 1 6 - 21 3 - 15 -10.4      -5.9 319 -4.6 300 71.4 140 -11.5 301 -25.1 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wofford 2.0 47.5 26.1 14.6 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.4 33.9 25.6 18.8 11.8 5.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.8 25.4 24.3 21.1 15.1 8.1 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
East Tennessee St. 3.6 10.5 17.8 22.0 22.2 14.4 7.9 3.6 1.2 0.4 0.1
The Citadel 5.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 16.2 21.5 19.7 12.9 6.3 2.6 0.9
Samford 5.5 1.9 4.6 8.6 14.2 21.0 20.8 15.8 8.3 3.6 1.3
Mercer 6.3 0.7 1.8 4.4 8.9 15.7 21.4 22.8 14.1 7.3 3.0
Western Carolina 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.4 10.7 18.1 26.5 21.9 14.4
Chattanooga 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 7.9 14.8 24.8 29.4 17.4
VMI 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 7.7 16.2 27.9 43.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wofford 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.4 10.8 15.1 18.6 18.5 14.5 7.9 2.4
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.3 9.9 13.6 16.3 16.7 14.6 10.0 4.8 1.2
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.3 8.3 12.2 15.1 16.7 15.2 11.8 7.0 3.0 0.6
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.1 9.7 13.2 16.2 16.6 14.4 10.3 5.5 2.1 0.4
The Citadel 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.7 11.4 13.8 15.1 14.4 11.8 8.7 5.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Samford 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.8 9.1 12.7 15.1 15.2 13.5 10.3 6.8 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercer 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.3 10.0 13.7 16.0 15.5 13.1 9.6 6.0 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 5 - 13 0.6 2.8 6.8 12.2 16.2 17.6 15.7 12.0 7.9 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 5 - 13 3.3 9.9 16.5 19.0 17.6 13.8 9.4 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 4.0 11.9 18.7 20.4 17.4 12.7 7.7 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wofford 47.5% 33.8 11.3 2.1 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 33.9% 22.6 9.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
Furman 25.4% 16.0 7.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
East Tennessee St. 10.5% 5.2 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
The Citadel 3.2% 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Samford 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mercer 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wofford 37.5% 33.4% 4.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.9 9.3 13.5 7.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 62.5 6.2%
UNC Greensboro 28.4% 24.9% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.4 6.6 9.3 5.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 71.6 4.7%
Furman 27.0% 20.3% 6.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.8 8.1 7.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 73.0 8.4%
East Tennessee St. 13.3% 12.6% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.5 4.1 2.7 0.9 0.2 86.7 0.7%
The Citadel 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 96.2 0.1%
Samford 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 97.1 0.0%
Mercer 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 98.3 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Wofford 37.5% 3.0% 36.0% 10.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 28.4% 2.3% 27.1% 7.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 27.0% 3.5% 24.9% 6.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 13.3% 0.6% 13.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 3.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 85.5 14.1 0.5 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.4 90.0 9.4 0.2
2nd Round 26.1% 0.3 73.9 25.4 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0