Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
38 Wofford 88.7%   11   20 - 4 15 - 0 22 - 5 17 - 1 +11.1      +8.9 16 +2.2 113 64.8 294 +16.0 25 +21.8 1
64 Furman 24.0%   19 - 5 11 - 4 21 - 6 13 - 5 +7.2      +1.7 128 +5.5 40 67.7 212 +9.3 62 +5.8 4
100 East Tennessee St. 14.3%   18 - 7 10 - 4 21 - 8 13 - 5 +5.0      +2.7 101 +2.2 112 67.6 220 +7.2 76 +7.0 3
115 UNC Greensboro 11.6%   20 - 5 11 - 3 23 - 6 14 - 4 +3.9      +0.8 152 +3.2 88 68.4 197 +10.7 50 +9.9 2
176 Samford 1.2%   14 - 11 5 - 8 16 - 14 7 - 11 -0.7      +0.8 150 -1.5 214 72.5 87 -1.1 182 -5.4 6
187 Mercer 0.9%   7 - 16 4 - 9 10 - 18 7 - 11 -1.8      0.0 177 -1.8 225 65.8 268 -7.0 272 -6.9 7
261 The Citadel 0.1%   8 - 13 3 - 10 10 - 16 5 - 13 -5.8      +0.4 164 -6.3 333 86.9 4 -3.8 217 -8.2 8
294 Chattanooga 0.1%   8 - 15 6 - 7 9 - 19 7 - 11 -7.5      -1.8 230 -5.7 322 67.6 221 -6.6 266 -2.6 5
303 Western Carolina 0.0%   5 - 21 3 - 11 6 - 24 4 - 14 -8.2      -3.3 269 -4.9 304 72.4 91 -9.6 301 -9.4 9
320 VMI 0.0%   4 - 19 1 - 13 5 - 22 2 - 16 -10.1      -4.1 284 -6.0 330 76.3 38 -13.6 331 -18.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wofford 1.0 100.0
Furman 2.9 29.1 47.1 23.8
East Tennessee St. 2.9 38.9 34.5 26.7
UNC Greensboro 2.3 0.2 75.6 15.0 9.2
Samford 5.6 0.0 61.9 22.4 12.1 3.5 0.1
Mercer 6.1 35.5 30.0 25.4 8.5 0.6
The Citadel 7.4 9.1 15.1 22.1 36.7 16.3 0.8
Chattanooga 5.9 0.0 36.7 36.8 22.7 3.9 0.0
Western Carolina 8.5 0.1 1.3 7.2 32.3 55.9 3.1
VMI 9.8 0.3 2.7 13.3 83.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wofford 17 - 1 0.8 12.7 46.4 40.2
Furman 13 - 5 2.7 21.8 47.1 28.4
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 0.2 2.7 18.2 49.0 30.0
UNC Greensboro 14 - 4 0.5 6.9 26.4 41.8 24.4
Samford 7 - 11 3.1 18.1 35.0 30.0 12.0 1.8
Mercer 7 - 11 1.9 12.4 29.6 35.1 18.1 2.9
The Citadel 5 - 13 4.4 17.9 31.7 29.2 14.2 2.7
Chattanooga 7 - 11 36.9 40.1 18.0 4.4 0.6 0.0
Western Carolina 4 - 14 14.2 43.6 36.4 5.5 0.3
VMI 2 - 16 23.9 40.6 27.0 7.8 0.7




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wofford 100.0% 99.8 0.2
Furman
East Tennessee St.
UNC Greensboro 0.2% 0.2
Samford
Mercer
The Citadel
Chattanooga
Western Carolina
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wofford 88.7% 51.1% 37.6% 11   0.0 0.4 1.0 3.7 7.4 7.7 8.4 21.3 27.8 9.8 1.1 0.0 11.3 76.9%
Furman 24.0% 21.3% 2.7% 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 8.3 9.3 2.9 0.2 76.0 3.5%
East Tennessee St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.2 1.9 0.1 85.7 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.6% 11.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 88.4 0.6%
Samford 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 98.8 0.0%
Mercer 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Wofford 88.7% 18.1% 80.2% 35.3% 9.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Furman 24.0% 2.5% 22.6% 5.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.6% 0.5% 11.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 59.9 39.4 0.7 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.3 0.1 69.6 30.0 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 42.1% 0.4 57.9 39.7 2.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 11.1% 0.1 88.9 11.0 0.1
Elite Eight 3.1% 0.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0