Mercer
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#187
Achievement Rating-7.0#272
Pace65.8#268
Improvement-0.4#204

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#177
First Shot+1.2#148
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#252
Layup/Dunks+4.1#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#242
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement+2.5#58

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#225
First Shot-1.4#220
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#231
Layups/Dunks+2.2#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#297
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement-3.0#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 16.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 163   @ UAB L 67-75 34%     0 - 1 -5.5 -10.7 +5.9
  Nov 13, 2018 130   @ Georgia St. L 60-62 24%     0 - 2 +3.5 -6.0 +9.3
  Nov 16, 2018 301   Tennessee Martin W 77-60 80%     1 - 2 +6.2 +0.1 +6.9
  Nov 20, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-42 97%     2 - 2 +14.7 +2.4 +14.8
  Nov 24, 2018 32   @ North Carolina St. L 74-78 7%     2 - 3 +10.5 +4.0 +6.8
  Dec 01, 2018 261   @ The Citadel L 69-79 55%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -13.1 -10.9 -1.9
  Dec 05, 2018 175   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-68 36%     2 - 5 -2.0 -8.8 +7.0
  Dec 08, 2018 127   Georgia Southern L 74-89 42%     2 - 6 -14.7 +2.6 -17.7
  Dec 18, 2018 27   @ Florida L 63-71 6%     2 - 7 +7.6 +5.8 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2018 268   UNC Wilmington W 77-73 75%     3 - 7 -4.8 -4.1 -0.7
  Dec 29, 2018 119   Harvard L 67-71 31%     3 - 8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4
  Jan 03, 2019 64   @ Furman L 58-71 14%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -3.1 -5.8 +2.2
  Jan 05, 2019 38   @ Wofford L 74-78 8%     3 - 10 0 - 3 +9.8 +5.8 +4.0
  Jan 10, 2019 303   Western Carolina W 84-80 81%     4 - 10 1 - 3 -6.9 +8.8 -15.5
  Jan 12, 2019 100   East Tennessee St. L 68-72 35%     4 - 11 1 - 4 -1.7 +0.9 -3.0
  Jan 17, 2019 294   @ Chattanooga L 70-73 62%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -7.8 +1.1 -9.2
  Jan 19, 2019 176   @ Samford W 93-87 36%     5 - 12 2 - 5 +8.0 +12.4 -4.9
  Jan 24, 2019 320   VMI W 88-68 85%     6 - 12 3 - 5 +7.2 +10.0 -2.4
  Jan 26, 2019 115   @ UNC Greensboro L 81-88 21%     6 - 13 3 - 6 -0.4 +3.7 -3.3
  Jan 31, 2019 38   Wofford L 67-76 17%     6 - 14 3 - 7 -0.6 +1.3 -2.7
  Feb 02, 2019 64   Furman L 63-74 27%     6 - 15 3 - 8 -6.5 +0.7 -8.2
  Feb 09, 2019 261   The Citadel L 61-67 74%     6 - 16 3 - 9 -14.5 -20.2 +5.7
  Feb 14, 2019 303   @ Western Carolina W 74-65 64%     7 - 16 4 - 9 +3.5 -1.8 +5.3
  Feb 16, 2019 100   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-74 18%    
  Feb 21, 2019 176   Samford W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 294   Chattanooga W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 28, 2019 320   @ VMI W 78-72 69%    
  Mar 02, 2019 115   UNC Greensboro L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 9.6 - 18.4 6.6 - 11.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.5 15.6 16.5 2.9 35.5 5th
6th 0.1 10.8 17.6 1.5 0.0 30.0 6th
7th 0.2 6.5 16.8 1.9 0.0 25.4 7th
8th 1.3 5.7 1.5 8.5 8th
9th 0.5 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.9 12.4 29.6 35.1 18.1 2.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.9
8-10 18.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 17.9
7-11 35.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 34.7
6-12 29.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 29.4
5-13 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 0.7%