Wofford
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#69
Achievement Rating+10.5#65
Pace64.6#309
Improvement+0.8#114

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#52
First Shot+2.8#97
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#63
Layup/Dunks+2.3#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#94
Freethrows-1.5#257
Improvement+0.0#175

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#104
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#45
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+0.8#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.3% 38.4% 24.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 5.7% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.8
.500 or above 99.3% 99.4% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.2% 98.2%
Conference Champion 49.3% 49.4% 34.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 0.6%
First Round37.0% 37.1% 24.3%
Second Round10.8% 10.9% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.3% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 6   North Carolina L 67-78 23%     0 - 1 +4.1 -1.4 +5.5
  Nov 10, 2018 250   @ High Point W 68-60 81%     1 - 1 +5.9 +8.0 -0.6
  Nov 18, 2018 25   @ Oklahoma L 64-75 21%     1 - 2 +4.9 +2.0 +2.6
  Nov 21, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 99-65 99%     2 - 2 +13.9 +10.5 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2018 119   @ South Carolina W 81-61 52%     3 - 2 +26.7 +6.8 +18.1
  Dec 01, 2018 125   East Tennessee St. W 79-62 75%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +17.1 +11.5 +6.1
  Dec 04, 2018 4   @ Kansas L 47-72 9%     4 - 3 -3.3 -15.2 +11.4
  Dec 09, 2018 188   Coastal Carolina W 82-71 86%     5 - 3 +6.5 +7.3 -0.7
  Dec 15, 2018 344   UNC Asheville W 78-53 99%    
  Dec 19, 2018 17   @ Mississippi St. L 64-74 18%    
  Dec 29, 2018 295   @ Western Carolina W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 03, 2019 184   The Citadel W 91-79 86%    
  Jan 05, 2019 214   Mercer W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 10, 2019 94   @ UNC Greensboro L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 12, 2019 334   @ VMI W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 19, 2019 110   Furman W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 24, 2019 189   Samford W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 26, 2019 308   Chattanooga W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 31, 2019 214   @ Mercer W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 02, 2019 184   @ The Citadel W 88-82 69%    
  Feb 07, 2019 125   @ East Tennessee St. W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 09, 2019 295   Western Carolina W 81-63 94%    
  Feb 14, 2019 334   VMI W 82-60 98%    
  Feb 16, 2019 94   UNC Greensboro W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 110   @ Furman L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 28, 2019 308   @ Chattanooga W 76-63 87%    
  Mar 02, 2019 189   @ Samford W 75-69 70%    
Projected Record 19.2 - 7.8 14.0 - 4.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 8.0 14.2 14.0 8.2 2.5 49.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.9 9.4 4.3 0.7 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 4.7 1.2 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.3 6.3 10.3 15.1 18.7 18.6 14.8 8.2 2.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 100.0% 8.2    8.0 0.2
16-2 95.1% 14.0    12.1 2.0 0.0
15-3 76.6% 14.2    9.2 4.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 43.0% 8.0    3.2 3.7 1.1 0.1
13-5 14.0% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.3% 49.3 35.4 11.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 79.2% 62.0% 17.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 45.3%
17-1 8.2% 67.7% 55.0% 12.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 28.3%
16-2 14.8% 56.3% 48.3% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.4 15.6%
15-3 18.6% 44.1% 40.3% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 1.5 0.1 10.4 6.4%
14-4 18.7% 35.0% 33.7% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.1 2.0%
13-5 15.1% 27.2% 26.8% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.6%
12-6 10.3% 19.5% 19.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 8.3 0.1%
11-7 6.3% 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.0%
10-8 3.3% 12.7% 12.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9
9-9 1.4% 9.6% 9.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-10 0.6% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.3% 34.6% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 2.5 9.0 13.9 8.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 61.7 5.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 7.9 2.3 2.5 5.7 8.0 8.2 12.3 20.7 9.6 13.2 14.6 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 64.9% 9.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 7.0 12.3 3.5 15.8 20.2 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 60.4% 9.6 2.0 4.0 7.9 9.9 17.8 13.9 5.0