Wofford
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#39
Achievement Rating+15.9#24
Pace64.8#293
Improvement+2.3#78

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#17
First Shot+6.8#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#47
Layup/Dunks+3.0#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#10
Freethrows-1.7#289
Improvement+2.9#47

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#116
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#51
Layups/Dunks-1.2#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement-0.5#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.3% 92.8% 85.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.9% 85.2% 72.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.1 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.5% 15.3% 19.9%
First Round81.1% 86.0% 75.8%
Second Round35.3% 40.3% 29.9%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 10.7% 7.6%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.3% 2.3%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 6   North Carolina L 67-78 28%     0 - 1 +5.9 +1.1 +4.8
  Nov 10, 2018 225   @ High Point W 68-60 87%     1 - 1 +6.9 +9.9 -1.5
  Nov 18, 2018 34   @ Oklahoma L 64-75 37%     1 - 2 +3.4 +1.8 +1.3
  Nov 21, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 99-65 99%     2 - 2 +16.2 +11.8 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2018 74   @ South Carolina W 81-61 56%     3 - 2 +29.4 +5.4 +22.3
  Dec 01, 2018 93   East Tennessee St. W 79-62 79%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.5 +9.8 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2018 11   @ Kansas L 47-72 22%     4 - 3 -5.8 -14.5 +8.2
  Dec 09, 2018 163   Coastal Carolina W 82-71 90%     5 - 3 +8.1 +9.3 -1.1
  Dec 15, 2018 340   UNC Asheville W 92-49 99%     6 - 3 +26.5 +16.8 +12.8
  Dec 19, 2018 23   @ Mississippi St. L 87-98 28%     6 - 4 +6.1 +20.0 -13.8
  Dec 29, 2018 289   @ Western Carolina W 74-54 92%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +15.5 +3.6 +13.4
  Jan 03, 2019 278   The Citadel W 112-81 96%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +21.6 +21.9 -2.8
  Jan 05, 2019 192   Mercer W 78-74 92%     9 - 4 4 - 0 -0.7 +2.9 -3.5
  Jan 10, 2019 110   @ UNC Greensboro W 72-43 65%     10 - 4 5 - 0 +35.9 +16.8 +24.4
  Jan 12, 2019 318   @ VMI W 90-76 95%     11 - 4 6 - 0 +6.7 +6.9 -1.1
  Jan 19, 2019 64   Furman W 59-54 73%     12 - 4 7 - 0 +9.6 -1.9 +12.1
  Jan 24, 2019 174   Samford W 107-106 90%     13 - 4 8 - 0 -2.3 +19.1 -21.5
  Jan 26, 2019 292   Chattanooga W 80-69 96%     14 - 4 9 - 0 +0.9 +2.3 -1.2
  Jan 31, 2019 192   @ Mercer W 76-67 83%     15 - 4 10 - 0 +9.8 +9.6 +1.0
  Feb 02, 2019 278   @ The Citadel W 99-61 91%     16 - 4 11 - 0 +34.1 +26.2 +10.1
  Feb 07, 2019 93   @ East Tennessee St. W 78-76 61%     17 - 4 12 - 0 +10.1 +10.5 -0.4
  Feb 09, 2019 289   Western Carolina W 83-56 96%     18 - 4 13 - 0 +17.0 +4.1 +12.9
  Feb 14, 2019 318   VMI W 95-84 98%     19 - 4 14 - 0 -1.8 +7.3 -10.0
  Feb 16, 2019 110   UNC Greensboro W 80-50 82%     20 - 4 15 - 0 +31.4 +18.2 +16.6
  Feb 23, 2019 64   @ Furman W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 28, 2019 292   @ Chattanooga W 81-65 93%    
  Mar 02, 2019 174   @ Samford W 79-70 79%    
Projected Record 22.2 - 4.8 17.2 - 0.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 13.3 46.6 39.1 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.0 13.3 46.6 39.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 39.1    39.1
17-1 100.0% 46.6    46.6
16-2 100.0% 13.3    13.3
15-3 100.0% 1.0    0.7 0.3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 99.7 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 39.1% 94.2% 52.8% 41.4% 8.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.5 5.9 4.7 4.1 7.9 7.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 87.7%
17-1 46.6% 88.4% 48.6% 39.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 11.6 14.9 4.6 0.5 0.0 5.4 77.5%
16-2 13.3% 80.0% 44.2% 35.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.6 4.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 64.1%
15-3 1.0% 65.8% 38.5% 27.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 44.4%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.3% 49.5% 39.8% 9.7 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.8 7.8 8.2 9.3 22.2 26.8 8.4 1.0 0.0 10.7 78.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.7% 100.0% 7.8 0.2 2.2 6.7 16.1 24.2 15.8 10.6 14.4 9.0 0.9 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.6% 90.6% 9.8 0.1 1.5 6.5 9.6 12.5 27.5 25.7 6.5 0.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.2% 86.9% 10.1 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.0 10.0 26.6 28.5 8.8 1.2 0.1
Lose Out 0.1% 12.1% 12.3 1.5 6.1 4.5