Furman
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#64
Achievement Rating+9.3#62
Pace67.7#212
Improvement+3.9#34

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot+1.2#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#145
Layup/Dunks+2.7#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#27
Freethrows-3.2#335
Improvement+1.4#109

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#40
First Shot+5.9#29
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#224
Layups/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#69
Freethrows+2.4#39
Improvement+2.6#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 29.8% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 6.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.5 11.2 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 4.7% 0.6%
First Round22.6% 27.2% 18.6%
Second Round5.4% 7.3% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 106   @ Loyola Chicago W 60-58 50%     1 - 0 +9.1 -9.1 +18.2
  Nov 13, 2018 222   Gardner-Webb W 88-86 89%     2 - 0 -4.3 +1.4 -5.9
  Nov 17, 2018 17   @ Villanova W 76-68 15%     3 - 0 +26.2 +3.7 +22.0
  Nov 25, 2018 341   @ UNC Asheville W 65-51 95%     4 - 0 +2.9 -3.9 +9.0
  Dec 01, 2018 303   Western Carolina W 90-88 94%     5 - 0 1 - 0 -8.9 -3.7 -5.5
  Dec 04, 2018 315   @ Elon W 98-77 90%     6 - 0 +14.4 +19.0 -5.3
  Dec 08, 2018 336   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-60 93%     7 - 0 +4.2 -2.4 +6.6
  Dec 11, 2018 220   Charleston Southern W 77-69 89%     8 - 0 +1.8 -0.9 +2.6
  Dec 15, 2018 268   UNC Wilmington W 93-50 92%     9 - 0 +34.2 +13.8 +21.8
  Dec 21, 2018 23   @ LSU L 57-75 18%     9 - 1 -1.0 -9.3 +8.0
  Dec 29, 2018 100   @ East Tennessee St. L 56-79 48%     9 - 2 1 - 1 -15.3 -6.4 -11.8
  Jan 03, 2019 187   Mercer W 71-58 86%     10 - 2 2 - 1 +8.5 -2.3 +11.3
  Jan 05, 2019 261   The Citadel W 101-85 92%     11 - 2 3 - 1 +7.5 +4.9 +0.1
  Jan 10, 2019 320   @ VMI W 89-57 91%     12 - 2 4 - 1 +24.6 +2.3 +19.0
  Jan 12, 2019 115   @ UNC Greensboro L 79-89 52%     12 - 3 4 - 2 -3.4 +9.8 -13.1
  Jan 19, 2019 38   @ Wofford L 54-59 26%     12 - 4 4 - 3 +8.8 -8.2 +16.3
  Jan 24, 2019 294   Chattanooga W 73-58 94%     13 - 4 5 - 3 +4.8 +4.6 +2.5
  Jan 26, 2019 176   Samford L 73-75 84%     13 - 5 5 - 4 -5.4 -4.8 -0.6
  Jan 31, 2019 261   @ The Citadel W 71-61 83%     14 - 5 6 - 4 +6.9 -6.6 +13.5
  Feb 02, 2019 187   @ Mercer W 74-63 73%     15 - 5 7 - 4 +12.0 +8.2 +4.9
  Feb 07, 2019 303   @ Western Carolina W 64-45 88%     16 - 5 8 - 4 +13.5 -10.5 +24.6
  Feb 09, 2019 100   East Tennessee St. W 91-61 68%     17 - 5 9 - 4 +32.3 +26.7 +8.1
  Feb 14, 2019 115   UNC Greensboro W 67-57 72%     18 - 5 10 - 4 +11.2 -2.0 +13.5
  Feb 16, 2019 320   VMI W 96-62 96%     19 - 5 11 - 4 +21.2 +12.6 +7.4
  Feb 23, 2019 38   Wofford L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 28, 2019 176   @ Samford W 74-69 68%    
  Mar 02, 2019 294   @ Chattanooga W 76-64 87%    
Projected Record 21.0 - 6.0 13.0 - 5.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 7.6 21.4 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.9 34.1 7.0 47.1 3rd
4th 2.7 15.7 5.5 23.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.7 21.8 47.1 28.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.4% 35.0% 27.7% 7.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 18.4 10.1%
13-5 47.1% 21.5% 20.1% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.8 1.3 0.1 37.0 1.6%
12-6 21.8% 16.6% 16.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 18.2 0.1%
11-7 2.7% 13.5% 13.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 21.3% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 8.3 9.3 2.9 0.2 76.0 3.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.9% 100.0% 10.7 0.3 2.8 7.3 23.9 46.0 18.6 1.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.3% 14.9% 11.9 0.2 0.4 3.9 7.4 2.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.7% 7.7% 12.0 0.1 1.2 4.6 1.7 0.0
Lose Out 0.6%