Furman
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#112
Achievement Rating+22.2#10
Pace70.0#176
Improvement-1.6#284

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot+3.3#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#238
Layup/Dunks+3.6#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#40
Freethrows-4.1#337
Improvement+1.8#48

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#105
First Shot+2.1#108
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#170
Layups/Dunks+1.5#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#243
Freethrows+2.9#37
Improvement-3.3#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 25.5% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.6% 7.5% 2.1%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 12.0
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.1% 90.7%
Conference Champion 22.8% 24.0% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four3.0% 3.3% 1.2%
First Round22.2% 23.5% 15.0%
Second Round5.3% 5.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 96   @ Loyola Chicago W 60-58 35%     1 - 0 +10.4 -6.8 +17.1
  Nov 13, 2018 192   Gardner-Webb W 88-86 81%     2 - 0 -2.9 +2.6 -5.7
  Nov 17, 2018 27   @ Villanova W 76-68 15%     3 - 0 +23.7 +3.4 +19.9
  Nov 25, 2018 344   @ UNC Asheville W 65-51 92%     4 - 0 +2.6 -1.4 +6.2
  Dec 01, 2018 295   Western Carolina W 90-88 91%     5 - 0 1 - 0 -8.4 -1.1 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2018 304   @ Elon W 98-77 81%     6 - 0 +15.9 +19.5 -4.3
  Dec 08, 2018 331   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-60 88%     7 - 0 +5.4 -2.2 +7.7
  Dec 11, 2018 226   Charleston Southern W 77-69 85%     8 - 0 +1.0 +0.7 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2018 218   UNC Wilmington W 84-73 84%    
  Dec 21, 2018 51   @ LSU L 71-79 22%    
  Dec 29, 2018 126   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 03, 2019 213   Mercer W 72-62 83%    
  Jan 05, 2019 184   The Citadel W 92-83 79%    
  Jan 10, 2019 321   @ VMI W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 12, 2019 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 19, 2019 67   @ Wofford L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 24, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 77-60 93%    
  Jan 26, 2019 189   Samford W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 31, 2019 184   @ The Citadel W 89-86 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 213   @ Mercer W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 295   @ Western Carolina W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 09, 2019 126   East Tennessee St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 14, 2019 89   UNC Greensboro W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 16, 2019 321   VMI W 81-63 94%    
  Feb 23, 2019 67   Wofford W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 28, 2019 189   @ Samford W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 74-63 83%    
Projected Record 20.5 - 6.5 12.4 - 5.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 7.5 5.7 2.4 0.5 22.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 8.2 8.0 3.1 0.4 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.5 8.5 6.2 1.5 0.1 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 6.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.7 9.2 13.1 15.8 16.6 14.6 10.6 6.0 2.4 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 93.8% 5.7    4.7 1.0 0.0
15-3 70.2% 7.5    4.4 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.0% 5.1    1.8 2.4 0.8 0.1
13-5 9.6% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 13.9 6.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 78.5% 48.0% 30.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 58.7%
17-1 2.4% 72.4% 45.7% 26.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 49.3%
16-2 6.0% 59.6% 38.0% 21.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 34.9%
15-3 10.6% 45.2% 31.5% 13.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.8 20.0%
14-4 14.6% 32.8% 25.1% 7.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 10.3%
13-5 16.6% 22.8% 19.7% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 12.8 3.9%
12-6 15.8% 15.2% 14.0% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.4 1.4%
11-7 13.1% 10.2% 9.9% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.7 0.3%
10-8 9.2% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.5 0.0%
9-9 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.4
8-10 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 18.6% 5.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.0 7.0 7.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 76.0 6.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.2 1.4 6.8 5.5 15.1 8.2 12.3 17.8 9.6 19.2 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 75.8% 7.4 3.0 6.1 6.1 27.3 18.2 3.0 6.1 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 65.0% 8.4 5.0 20.0 15.0 20.0 5.0