Samford
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#176
Achievement Rating-1.1#182
Pace72.5#87
Improvement-4.4#325

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#150
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#289
Layup/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+0.0#179
Improvement-0.9#229

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot+0.5#156
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#324
Layups/Dunks+3.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#275
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-3.5#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 92.4% 96.5% 73.8%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 16.5% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 322   North Alabama W 91-74 87%     1 - 0 +4.0 +5.1 -2.8
  Nov 09, 2018 131   Jacksonville St. W 92-72 47%     2 - 0 +20.0 +10.6 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2018 343   Kennesaw St. W 74-60 92%     3 - 0 -2.8 +3.3 -4.4
  Nov 18, 2018 309   @ Cleveland St. W 73-60 70%     4 - 0 +7.0 -4.5 +11.3
  Nov 20, 2018 40   @ Ohio St. L 50-68 10%     4 - 1 -4.3 -13.7 +8.9
  Nov 23, 2018 182   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-66 41%     5 - 1 +9.5 +0.0 +9.7
  Nov 25, 2018 342   South Carolina St. W 77-60 92%     6 - 1 +0.3 -3.5 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2018 70   Belmont L 93-99 31%     6 - 2 -1.7 +1.8 -2.4
  Dec 09, 2018 347   @ Alabama A&M W 77-59 87%     7 - 2 +5.4 -1.6 +6.3
  Dec 13, 2018 270   Morehead St. W 77-72 78%     8 - 2 -3.9 -9.0 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2018 289   Houston Baptist W 85-61 81%     9 - 2 +14.1 +5.0 +8.8
  Dec 19, 2018 7   @ Tennessee L 70-83 3%     9 - 3 +9.2 +5.3 +3.7
  Dec 22, 2018 115   UNC Greensboro L 75-83 43%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -6.8 +3.8 -10.6
  Dec 29, 2018 320   VMI W 96-68 87%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +15.2 +5.4 +6.7
  Jan 03, 2019 100   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-81 21%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -1.3 -5.7 +5.4
  Jan 05, 2019 303   @ Western Carolina L 69-76 68%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -12.5 -2.4 -10.6
  Jan 12, 2019 294   @ Chattanooga L 75-80 65%     10 - 7 1 - 4 -9.8 -2.5 -7.2
  Jan 17, 2019 261   The Citadel W 80-77 77%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -5.5 +1.8 -7.2
  Jan 19, 2019 187   Mercer L 87-93 64%     11 - 8 2 - 5 -10.5 +3.9 -13.9
  Jan 24, 2019 38   @ Wofford L 106-107 9%     11 - 9 2 - 6 +12.8 +24.5 -11.6
  Jan 26, 2019 64   @ Furman W 75-73 16%     12 - 9 3 - 6 +11.9 +6.9 +5.0
  Jan 31, 2019 100   East Tennessee St. L 66-74 39%     12 - 10 3 - 7 -5.7 -6.8 +1.1
  Feb 02, 2019 303   Western Carolina W 92-81 83%     13 - 10 4 - 7 +0.1 +9.1 -9.5
  Feb 07, 2019 115   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-75 24%     13 - 11 4 - 8 -1.4 -5.1 +4.1
  Feb 09, 2019 320   @ VMI W 84-77 74%     14 - 11 5 - 8 -0.4 -8.1 +6.5
  Feb 16, 2019 294   Chattanooga W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 21, 2019 187   @ Mercer L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 23, 2019 261   @ The Citadel W 88-86 58%    
  Feb 28, 2019 64   Furman L 69-74 32%    
  Mar 02, 2019 38   Wofford L 71-80 20%    
Projected Record 16.4 - 13.6 7.4 - 10.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.5 19.2 28.5 12.0 1.8 61.9 5th
6th 0.1 6.2 14.5 1.5 0.0 22.4 6th
7th 0.8 10.0 1.3 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 2.1 1.5 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.1 18.1 35.0 30.0 12.0 1.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 12.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
8-10 30.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 29.6
7-11 35.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 34.6
6-12 18.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.0
5-13 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.8%