Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#231
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#215
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 15.0
.500 or above 28.9% 39.2% 18.3%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 40.5% 26.1%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 14.1% 24.5%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.10.1 - 2.0
Quad 20.6 - 3.10.7 - 5.1
Quad 32.9 - 6.43.6 - 11.5
Quad 48.3 - 5.611.9 - 17.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 291   @ Manhattan W 69-66 51%    
  Nov 09, 2018 6   North Carolina L 66-88 4%    
  Nov 22, 2018 230   Abilene Christian L 71-72 51%    
  Nov 23, 2018 282   UC Riverside W 70-68 59%    
  Nov 24, 2018 168   @ Pacific L 69-73 28%    
  Dec 01, 2018 223   Boston University L 70-71 59%    
  Dec 04, 2018 123   Furman L 69-76 36%    
  Dec 07, 2018 86   UNC Greensboro L 62-72 28%    
  Dec 16, 2018 162   Canisius L 71-75 46%    
  Dec 18, 2018 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 75-67 68%    
  Dec 22, 2018 279   @ UMKC W 74-72 48%    
  Dec 28, 2018 237   Towson W 70-69 61%    
  Dec 30, 2018 176   James Madison L 70-73 50%    
  Jan 03, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 74-72 47%    
  Jan 05, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 70-69 40%    
  Jan 10, 2019 70   Northeastern L 66-78 22%    
  Jan 12, 2019 156   Hofstra L 73-78 43%    
  Jan 19, 2019 164   @ William & Mary L 75-79 28%    
  Jan 24, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 64-72 18%    
  Jan 26, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington L 76-78 34%    
  Jan 31, 2019 239   Delaware W 70-69 62%    
  Feb 02, 2019 280   Drexel W 74-72 66%    
  Feb 07, 2019 156   @ Hofstra L 73-78 26%    
  Feb 09, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 66-78 11%    
  Feb 16, 2019 164   William & Mary L 75-79 47%    
  Feb 21, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington L 76-78 54%    
  Feb 23, 2019 112   College of Charleston L 64-72 36%    
  Feb 28, 2019 176   @ James Madison L 70-73 30%    
  Mar 02, 2019 237   @ Towson W 70-69 41%    
Projected Record 11.9 - 17.1 7.2 - 10.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.3 2.4 0.3 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.7 9th
10th 0.6 1.7 3.4 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 12.7 10th
Total 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.6 8.9 10.4 12.3 11.7 10.7 10.1 7.6 6.1 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 82.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 64.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.2% 0.7    0.3 0.4 0.1
13-5 16.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 80.1% 63.5% 16.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.5%
16-2 0.3% 35.7% 26.6% 9.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.4%
15-3 0.7% 26.5% 24.0% 2.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3%
14-4 1.6% 17.8% 17.0% 0.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0%
13-5 2.9% 12.2% 12.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
12-6 4.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-7 6.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.8
10-8 7.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.4
9-9 10.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
8-10 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.5
6-12 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
4-14 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-15 6.6% 6.6
2-16 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 97.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%