Preseason Rankings
Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#291
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#321
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 21.2% 31.1% 11.6%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 32.5% 18.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 25.6% 19.2% 31.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.10.0 - 0.1
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.6
Quad 20.2 - 1.80.2 - 2.4
Quad 31.7 - 7.01.8 - 9.4
Quad 49.0 - 9.910.8 - 19.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 231   Elon L 66-69 49%    
  Nov 12, 2018 214   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 64-68 26%    
  Nov 16, 2018 221   Coastal Carolina L 64-68 37%    
  Nov 17, 2018 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-73 12%    
  Nov 18, 2018 294   UNC Asheville W 67-66 51%    
  Nov 24, 2018 208   @ George Washington L 62-66 26%    
  Dec 01, 2018 267   Fordham L 62-63 56%    
  Dec 05, 2018 222   Stony Brook L 63-67 49%    
  Dec 10, 2018 156   Hofstra L 67-75 35%    
  Dec 15, 2018 96   @ Connecticut L 61-73 10%    
  Dec 20, 2018 278   @ Albany L 64-65 37%    
  Dec 23, 2018 318   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 69-67 46%    
  Jan 03, 2019 238   Quinnipiac L 66-69 51%    
  Jan 05, 2019 268   Niagara L 73-74 55%    
  Jan 08, 2019 274   @ Marist L 69-70 36%    
  Jan 12, 2019 183   @ Monmouth L 65-71 22%    
  Jan 17, 2019 178   @ St. Peter's L 56-62 21%    
  Jan 19, 2019 110   @ Rider L 68-79 13%    
  Jan 21, 2019 274   Marist L 69-70 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 284   @ Siena L 64-65 37%    
  Jan 31, 2019 220   Fairfield L 66-70 47%    
  Feb 02, 2019 178   St. Peter's L 56-62 38%    
  Feb 05, 2019 110   Rider L 68-79 26%    
  Feb 08, 2019 284   Siena L 64-65 58%    
  Feb 15, 2019 268   @ Niagara L 73-74 36%    
  Feb 17, 2019 162   @ Canisius L 65-72 20%    
  Feb 22, 2019 133   Iona L 67-77 29%    
  Feb 24, 2019 220   @ Fairfield L 66-70 29%    
  Mar 01, 2019 183   Monmouth L 65-71 40%    
  Mar 03, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac L 66-69 32%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 19.2 6.5 - 11.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.3 4.0 1.0 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.8 1.2 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.1 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 3.2 5.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 15.0 10th
11th 0.9 2.8 4.8 5.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 18.1 11th
Total 0.9 2.9 5.4 9.2 10.8 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.2 8.1 6.4 4.8 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 60.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.0% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 18.4% 18.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.3% 29.1% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3%
15-3 0.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 18.2% 18.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
12-6 2.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
11-7 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
10-8 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.2
9-9 8.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.1 0.0 0.1 8.0
8-10 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-11 11.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 9.2% 9.2
2-16 5.4% 5.4
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%