Preseason Rankings
Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#70
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 2.9% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 2.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.5% 53.3% 32.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.7% 12.8% 2.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 12.2
.500 or above 92.9% 94.1% 80.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.0% 93.3%
Conference Champion 56.9% 58.4% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 1.6%
First Round50.3% 52.0% 32.3%
Second Round18.2% 19.1% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 6.8% 2.3%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.3% 1.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 1.50.3 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.7 - 1.41.0 - 2.9
Quad 22.3 - 2.23.4 - 5.2
Quad 36.6 - 2.79.9 - 7.8
Quad 411.0 - 1.220.9 - 9.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 223   Boston University W 76-65 91%    
  Nov 09, 2018 77   @ Harvard W 69-68 41%    
  Nov 15, 2018 39   Alabama L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 16, 2018 20   Virginia Tech L 72-78 30%    
  Nov 18, 2018 88   Davidson W 70-68 59%    
  Nov 24, 2018 88   @ Davidson W 70-68 48%    
  Nov 28, 2018 171   @ Bucknell W 79-71 67%    
  Dec 01, 2018 135   Eastern Michigan W 69-64 78%    
  Dec 04, 2018 12   @ Syracuse L 62-69 18%    
  Dec 08, 2018 245   Oakland W 79-67 90%    
  Dec 16, 2018 124   @ Vermont W 71-66 56%    
  Dec 21, 2018 119   St. Bonaventure W 74-70 73%    
  Dec 28, 2018 280   Drexel W 80-66 93%    
  Dec 30, 2018 239   Delaware W 75-63 90%    
  Jan 05, 2019 156   @ Hofstra W 79-72 64%    
  Jan 10, 2019 231   @ Elon W 78-66 78%    
  Jan 12, 2019 164   @ William & Mary W 81-73 66%    
  Jan 17, 2019 112   College of Charleston W 70-66 73%    
  Jan 19, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington W 82-72 85%    
  Jan 24, 2019 237   @ Towson W 76-64 77%    
  Jan 26, 2019 176   @ James Madison W 75-67 68%    
  Feb 02, 2019 156   Hofstra W 79-72 80%    
  Feb 07, 2019 164   William & Mary W 81-73 82%    
  Feb 09, 2019 231   Elon W 78-66 89%    
  Feb 14, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 82-72 71%    
  Feb 16, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston W 70-66 54%    
  Feb 21, 2019 176   James Madison W 75-67 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 237   Towson W 76-64 89%    
  Feb 28, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 75-63 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 80-66 82%    
Projected Record 20.9 - 9.1 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.5 8.3 12.1 14.8 11.7 5.6 56.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.3 5.5 2.8 0.6 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.7 8.6 12.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 11.7 5.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.6    5.6
17-1 100.0% 11.7    11.6 0.1
16-2 96.0% 14.8    13.4 1.4 0.0
15-3 81.3% 12.1    9.2 2.8 0.1
14-4 57.6% 8.3    4.7 3.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 28.6% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1
12-6 8.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.9% 56.9 45.9 9.4 1.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.6% 96.5% 84.1% 12.4% 6.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 78.0%
17-1 11.7% 87.2% 71.1% 16.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 55.8%
16-2 15.4% 74.8% 60.3% 14.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.9 36.7%
15-3 14.9% 60.2% 54.1% 6.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 13.4%
14-4 14.5% 45.8% 42.5% 3.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 7.8 5.7%
13-5 12.2% 34.9% 33.8% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 7.9 1.8%
12-6 8.6% 23.0% 22.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 6.6 0.7%
11-7 6.7% 21.6% 21.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.3
10-8 4.4% 13.8% 13.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.8
9-9 2.7% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4
8-10 1.5% 6.8% 6.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 51.5% 45.1% 6.4% 10.8 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.9 4.1 8.5 12.1 8.0 3.9 1.8 0.6 48.5 11.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 17.6 35.9 35.1 11.4