IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#268
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	80.1	#13
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.2	#204

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#321

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.9%	3.2%	1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	27.9%	45.4%	21.0%
.500 or above in Conference	31.8%	44.0%	27.1%
Conference Champion	2.2%	3.4%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	20.2%	12.1%	23.3%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%
First Round	1.6%	2.9%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.1	0.0 - 0.1
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.4	0.0 - 0.6
Quad 2	0.2 - 1.9	0.2 - 2.4
Quad 3	1.7 - 6.6	1.9 - 9.1
Quad 4	10.8 - 9.3	12.6 - 18.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2018	119	St. Bonaventure	L	75-84	28%
Nov 14, 2018	67	@ Loyola Chicago	L	68-82	6%
Nov 16, 2018	173	@ Wyoming	L	83-88	24%
Nov 23, 2018	296	Grambling St.	W	83-81	65%
Nov 24, 2018	318	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	81-78	72%
Nov 30, 2018	160	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	79-85	21%
Dec 03, 2018	167	@ Pittsburgh	L	71-77	23%
Dec 09, 2018	316	New Hampshire	W	75-72	70%
Dec 16, 2018	248	Cornell	L	81-82	58%
Dec 19, 2018	281	@ Cleveland St.	W	78-77	40%
Dec 22, 2018	216	@ Army	L	80-83	32%
Dec 29, 2018	277	Norfolk St.	W	80-79	61%
Dec 31, 2018	278	Albany	W	76-75	61%
Jan 05, 2019	291	@ Manhattan	W	74-73	45%
Jan 07, 2019	220	@ Fairfield	L	80-82	34%
Jan 11, 2019	133	Iona	L	80-88	32%
Jan 13, 2019	110	Rider	L	82-92	30%
Jan 17, 2019	284	@ Siena	W	76-75	43%
Jan 19, 2019	238	@ Quinnipiac	L	78-80	36%
Jan 22, 2019	178	St. Peter's	L	67-72	43%
Jan 26, 2019	183	Monmouth	L	78-83	44%
Jan 30, 2019	162	Canisius	L	77-83	40%
Feb 03, 2019	238	Quinnipiac	L	78-80	55%
Feb 08, 2019	274	@ Marist	W	83-82	40%
Feb 10, 2019	133	@ Iona	L	80-88	17%
Feb 15, 2019	291	Manhattan	W	74-73	64%
Feb 17, 2019	220	Fairfield	L	80-82	51%
Feb 22, 2019	110	@ Rider	L	82-92	16%
Feb 24, 2019	178	@ St. Peter's	L	67-72	25%
Feb 27, 2019	162	@ Canisius	L	77-83	23%
Mar 03, 2019	284	Siena	W	76-75	62%
Projected Record						12.6 - 18.4	7.0 - 11.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.5	1.3	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0				4.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.0	0.8	2.2	1.9	0.7	0.1						5.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.9	2.8	2.5	0.7	0.0							6.9	4th
5th								0.1	1.1	3.7	3.0	0.6	0.1								8.6	5th
6th							0.0	1.3	4.0	3.6	0.9	0.0									9.7	6th
7th						0.0	1.1	4.4	3.8	1.0	0.1										10.5	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	1.4	4.8	4.5	1.5	0.0											12.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	2.0	4.8	4.1	1.4	0.0												12.7	9th
10th		0.1	0.7	2.9	4.9	3.8	1.2	0.1													13.6	10th
11th	0.6	2.3	3.9	3.9	2.3	0.5	0.0														13.5	11th

Total	0.6	2.3	4.6	7.1	9.3	10.6	11.3	11.8	10.5	9.2	7.6	5.9	4.1	2.6	1.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	96.5%	0.4		0.4	0.0
15-3	70.0%	0.4		0.3	0.0	0.0
14-4	39.9%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	19.6%	0.5		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.8%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.2	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		49.1%	49.1%		11.0												0.0						0.0
17-1	0.1%		31.9%	31.9%		10.7										0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.4%		44.1%	44.1%		13.3													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-3	0.6%		16.2%	16.2%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
14-4	1.3%		18.0%	18.0%		14.2												0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.6%		10.3%	10.3%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.3
12-6	4.1%		6.6%	6.6%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.8
11-7	5.9%		4.2%	4.2%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	5.7
10-8	7.6%		2.6%	2.6%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.1	7.4
9-9	9.2%		1.9%	1.9%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.0
8-10	10.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
7-11	11.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.8
6-12	11.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
5-13	10.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
4-14	9.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
3-15	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
2-16	4.6%																							4.6
1-17	2.3%																							2.3
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	15.0										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.9	98.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%