IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#238
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.0	#256
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#188

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#289

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.5%	8.9%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.9	14.0	14.9

.500 or above	39.9%	83.8%	39.3%
.500 or above in Conference	40.9%	71.7%	40.5%
Conference Champion	3.9%	13.8%	3.8%
Last Place in Conference	14.1%	3.1%	14.2%

First Four	0.8%	2.1%	0.7%
First Round	3.1%	6.8%	3.1%
Second Round	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.8	0.0 - 0.8
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 1.1
Quad 2	0.1 - 1.2	0.1 - 2.3
Quad 3	1.8 - 5.5	2.0 - 7.8
Quad 4	11.3 - 7.9	13.3 - 15.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	8	@ Villanova	L	63-84	1%
Nov 15, 2018	193	Hartford	L	69-72	52%
Nov 20, 2018	316	@ New Hampshire	W	69-64	56%
Nov 25, 2018	327	Maine	W	76-69	80%
Nov 28, 2018	154	@ Massachusetts	L	69-74	24%
Dec 01, 2018	222	@ Stony Brook	L	69-70	36%
Dec 05, 2018	276	@ Dartmouth	W	71-69	46%
Dec 08, 2018	293	Lafayette	W	74-71	69%
Dec 16, 2018	280	Drexel	W	74-72	57%
Dec 19, 2018	299	Bethune-Cookman	W	81-78	70%
Dec 22, 2018	222	Stony Brook	L	69-70	58%
Jan 03, 2019	291	@ Manhattan	W	69-66	49%
Jan 05, 2019	110	@ Rider	L	74-82	18%
Jan 10, 2019	183	Monmouth	L	71-74	48%
Jan 13, 2019	220	Fairfield	L	72-73	57%
Jan 17, 2019	162	Canisius	L	71-75	46%
Jan 19, 2019	268	Niagara	W	80-78	64%
Jan 25, 2019	274	@ Marist	W	76-74	45%
Jan 27, 2019	178	St. Peter's	L	61-65	47%
Feb 01, 2019	162	@ Canisius	L	71-75	27%
Feb 03, 2019	268	@ Niagara	W	80-78	45%
Feb 08, 2019	133	@ Iona	L	73-80	21%
Feb 12, 2019	110	Rider	L	74-82	34%
Feb 15, 2019	274	Marist	W	76-74	65%
Feb 17, 2019	284	@ Siena	W	69-67	46%
Feb 19, 2019	133	Iona	L	73-80	37%
Feb 24, 2019	183	@ Monmouth	L	71-74	30%
Mar 01, 2019	178	@ St. Peter's	L	61-65	30%
Mar 03, 2019	291	Manhattan	W	69-66	68%
Projected Record						13.3 - 15.7	7.8 - 10.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1		3.9	1st
2nd											0.1	0.7	1.8	2.1	1.0	0.2	0.0				5.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.9	2.5	2.7	1.0	0.1	0.0					7.4	3rd
4th									0.0	1.0	3.9	2.9	1.0	0.1							9.0	4th
5th								0.1	1.1	4.0	3.7	0.9	0.1								9.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.0	1.2	4.0	3.9	0.9	0.1									10.1	6th
7th						0.1	1.3	4.4	4.5	1.1	0.1										11.5	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	1.3	4.2	3.9	1.4	0.1											10.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.7	4.0	4.1	1.4	0.1	0.0											11.7	9th
10th		0.1	0.6	2.0	3.9	3.3	0.9	0.1													10.8	10th
11th	0.4	1.2	2.6	2.7	1.7	0.5	0.0														9.1	11th

Total	0.4	1.3	3.2	5.0	7.4	9.2	10.6	10.9	11.2	10.2	9.6	7.1	5.7	4.0	2.2	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	97.6%	0.6		0.6	0.1
15-3	80.4%	1.0		0.7	0.2	0.0
14-4	52.3%	1.2		0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	18.3%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	3.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.9%	3.9		2.3	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		80.4%	42.0%	38.4%	9.5					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		66.3%
17-1	0.2%		54.9%	45.7%	9.2%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		16.9%
16-2	0.7%		21.3%	17.4%	4.0%	12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.5		4.8%
15-3	1.2%		26.4%	26.4%	0.0%	14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9		0.1%
14-4	2.2%		16.8%	16.8%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.8
13-5	4.0%		12.7%	12.7%	0.0%	14.7														0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	3.5		0.0%
12-6	5.7%		7.8%	7.8%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	5.3
11-7	7.1%		7.6%	7.6%		15.3															0.0	0.3	0.2	6.6
10-8	9.6%		4.5%	4.5%		16.1															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.2
9-9	10.2%		3.2%	3.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.9
8-10	11.2%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8																0.0	0.1	11.0
7-11	10.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.9
6-12	10.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
5-13	9.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
4-14	7.4%																							7.4
3-15	5.0%																							5.0
2-16	3.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		3.5%	3.4%	0.1%	14.9					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.4	96.5		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%