Preseason Rankings
Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.7#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 25.8% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.6
.500 or above 76.5% 80.2% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 87.8% 74.9%
Conference Champion 28.5% 30.4% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.1% 4.0%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.5%
First Round23.3% 25.0% 12.5%
Second Round4.1% 4.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.50.1 - 0.5
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.90.3 - 1.4
Quad 20.8 - 1.81.0 - 3.2
Quad 33.9 - 4.24.9 - 7.4
Quad 412.9 - 3.717.8 - 11.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 278   Albany W 77-68 86%    
  Nov 13, 2018 92   @ New Mexico L 81-84 30%    
  Nov 19, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 84-80 63%    
  Nov 21, 2018 193   Hartford W 78-74 65%    
  Nov 24, 2018 47   @ Providence L 71-78 18%    
  Nov 27, 2018 142   @ Ohio W 80-79 43%    
  Dec 01, 2018 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 79-80 40%    
  Dec 09, 2018 229   Columbia W 85-78 71%    
  Dec 15, 2018 145   Princeton W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 22, 2018 122   @ Yale L 77-78 38%    
  Dec 30, 2018 206   Holy Cross W 72-67 75%    
  Jan 03, 2019 183   Monmouth W 80-76 71%    
  Jan 05, 2019 220   Fairfield W 81-75 77%    
  Jan 11, 2019 268   @ Niagara W 88-80 68%    
  Jan 13, 2019 162   @ Canisius W 79-77 47%    
  Jan 18, 2019 274   Marist W 84-75 83%    
  Jan 20, 2019 183   @ Monmouth W 80-76 52%    
  Jan 25, 2019 110   Rider L 84-85 56%    
  Jan 27, 2019 220   @ Fairfield W 81-75 59%    
  Jan 31, 2019 274   @ Marist W 84-75 67%    
  Feb 02, 2019 284   Siena W 77-68 84%    
  Feb 08, 2019 238   Quinnipiac W 80-73 79%    
  Feb 10, 2019 268   Niagara W 88-80 83%    
  Feb 13, 2019 284   @ Siena W 77-68 68%    
  Feb 15, 2019 178   St. Peter's W 69-66 70%    
  Feb 19, 2019 238   @ Quinnipiac W 80-73 63%    
  Feb 22, 2019 291   @ Manhattan W 77-67 71%    
  Feb 24, 2019 162   Canisius W 79-77 66%    
  Mar 01, 2019 110   @ Rider L 84-85 36%    
Projected Record 17.8 - 11.2 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.5 7.4 6.5 4.1 1.6 28.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.5 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.1 5.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.5 7.5 8.9 10.9 11.9 12.4 12.0 9.9 6.9 4.1 1.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.2
16-2 94.9% 6.5    5.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 75.4% 7.4    5.5 1.9 0.1
14-4 46.1% 5.5    2.6 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 20.0% 2.5    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.5% 28.5 19.8 7.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 86.2% 68.8% 17.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 55.8%
17-1 4.1% 68.1% 63.6% 4.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.3 12.3%
16-2 6.9% 55.6% 54.2% 1.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 3.2%
15-3 9.9% 42.0% 41.3% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.7 1.2%
14-4 12.0% 32.4% 32.1% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 8.1 0.3%
13-5 12.4% 23.4% 23.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 9.5
12-6 11.9% 18.7% 18.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 9.7
11-7 10.9% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 9.6
10-8 8.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 8.1
9-9 7.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.1
8-10 5.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.3
7-11 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.1% 23.4% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.2 5.5 4.6 3.1 75.9 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 90.7% 3.7 9.7 9.7 19.7 30.5 10.8 0.7 9.7