Preseason Rankings
North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.3#340
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#151
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-9.9#351
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#287
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.7
.500 or above 1.4% 3.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 15.5% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 39.0% 29.9% 42.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.50.0 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.60.0 - 3.1
Quad 20.2 - 4.10.2 - 7.3
Quad 30.9 - 7.41.1 - 14.7
Quad 44.4 - 7.85.5 - 22.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 322   @ Samford L 72-75 27%    
  Nov 13, 2018 71   @ Saint Louis L 54-75 2%    
  Nov 17, 2018 167   @ Pittsburgh L 59-72 7%    
  Nov 24, 2018 192   @ Troy L 64-76 9%    
  Nov 28, 2018 126   @ Toledo L 64-80 5%    
  Dec 01, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. L 58-73 17%    
  Dec 04, 2018 187   @ UAB L 62-74 9%    
  Dec 15, 2018 86   @ UNC Greensboro L 55-74 3%    
  Dec 18, 2018 146   @ Jacksonville St. L 58-73 7%    
  Dec 21, 2018 310   @ VMI L 66-71 26%    
  Dec 28, 2018 5   @ Gonzaga L 56-88 0.2%   
  Dec 30, 2018 298   @ Eastern Illinois L 62-68 23%    
  Jan 05, 2019 213   @ North Florida L 74-84 13%    
  Jan 08, 2019 179   Florida Gulf Coast L 66-78 22%    
  Jan 12, 2019 228   NJIT L 63-72 30%    
  Jan 16, 2019 289   @ Jacksonville L 66-72 22%    
  Jan 19, 2019 337   Stetson L 70-71 57%    
  Jan 21, 2019 155   @ Liberty L 57-71 8%    
  Jan 24, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. L 68-69 56%    
  Jan 27, 2019 228   @ NJIT L 63-72 16%    
  Feb 02, 2019 136   @ Lipscomb L 69-85 6%    
  Feb 06, 2019 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-78 10%    
  Feb 09, 2019 213   North Florida L 74-84 28%    
  Feb 16, 2019 155   Liberty L 57-71 19%    
  Feb 20, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. L 68-69 37%    
  Feb 23, 2019 337   @ Stetson L 70-71 38%    
  Feb 26, 2019 289   Jacksonville L 66-72 39%    
  Mar 01, 2019 136   Lipscomb L 69-85 15%    
Projected Record 5.5 - 22.5 4.1 - 11.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 6.6 8.0 3.9 0.5 0.0 20.8 7th
8th 0.5 4.7 9.4 7.7 2.8 0.2 0.0 25.3 8th
9th 4.3 9.1 8.7 4.7 1.0 0.1 27.9 9th
Total 4.3 9.6 13.4 15.9 15.8 13.8 10.6 6.7 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 57.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 38.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 12.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 96.7% 96.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 14.5% 14.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-6 1.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-7 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
8-8 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-9 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.7
6-10 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-11 13.8% 13.8
4-12 15.8% 15.8
3-13 15.9% 15.9
2-14 13.4% 13.4
1-15 9.6% 9.6
0-16 4.3% 4.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%