Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#60
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#134
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 7.8% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 3.9% 7.8% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 7.5% 7.8% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 60.9% 41.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 32.3% 13.2%
Average Seed 32.0 8.9 10.7
.500 or above 92.5% 97.4% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 47.0% 61.3%
Conference Champion 42.9% 51.2% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.9% 4.9% 3.4%
First Round46.0% 58.9% 39.3%
Second Round20.7% 30.4% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.0% 12.9% 5.3%
Elite Eight3.1% 5.6% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 2.1% 0.6%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.4 - 1.40.4 - 1.4
Quad 1b1.1 - 1.81.5 - 3.1
Quad 23.5 - 2.95.0 - 6.0
Quad 37.4 - 2.412.3 - 8.4
Quad 49.5 - 0.721.9 - 9.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 42   @ Washington L 76-77 34%    
  Nov 10, 2018 285   Tennessee Martin W 79-64 95%    
  Nov 15, 2018 120   Valparaiso W 78-72 70%    
  Nov 16, 2018 11   West Virginia L 74-80 29%    
  Nov 18, 2018 55   Central Florida L 68-69 49%    
  Nov 24, 2018 161   @ Indiana St. W 80-71 69%    
  Dec 01, 2018 259   Tennessee St. W 76-62 94%    
  Dec 05, 2018 190   @ Missouri St. W 77-67 73%    
  Dec 08, 2018 94   @ Arkansas W 80-76 53%    
  Dec 16, 2018 192   Troy W 80-70 88%    
  Dec 19, 2018 109   @ Belmont W 78-73 57%    
  Dec 22, 2018 59   St. Mary's L 71-72 60%    
  Dec 29, 2018 22   Wisconsin L 68-72 44%    
  Jan 03, 2019 301   @ Charlotte W 87-70 87%    
  Jan 05, 2019 102   @ Old Dominion W 71-66 55%    
  Jan 12, 2019 99   @ Marshall W 86-82 54%    
  Jan 17, 2019 226   Florida International W 81-68 91%    
  Jan 19, 2019 266   Florida Atlantic W 82-67 93%    
  Jan 21, 2019 99   Marshall W 86-82 73%    
  Jan 24, 2019 163   @ Southern Miss W 78-69 68%    
  Jan 26, 2019 141   @ Louisiana Tech W 78-71 63%    
  Jan 31, 2019 158   Texas San Antonio W 83-75 83%    
  Feb 02, 2019 249   UTEP W 80-66 92%    
  Feb 07, 2019 323   @ Rice W 83-64 90%    
  Feb 09, 2019 132   @ North Texas W 77-71 60%    
  Feb 14, 2019 157   Middle Tennessee W 75-67 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 187   UAB W 79-69 86%    
  Feb 23, 2019 102   @ Old Dominion W 71-66 56%    
  Feb 28, 2019 187   @ UAB W 79-69 71%    
  Mar 03, 2019 163   Southern Miss W 78-69 84%    
  Mar 06, 2019 158   Texas San Antonio W 83-75 83%    
Projected Record 21.9 - 9.1 13.7 - 4.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 5.2 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.9 7.4 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.8 2.4 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 1.5 0.2 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.0 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.2 7.4 9.8 12.5 15.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 34.2% 5.2    1.9 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-1 10.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-2 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 15.2% 45.4% 35.6% 9.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.3 15.3%
13-1 12.5% 31.3% 26.0% 5.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 7.1%
12-2 9.8% 21.8% 20.7% 1.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 7.7 1.4%
11-3 7.4% 14.4% 14.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 6.3 0.0%
10-4 5.2% 10.1% 10.1% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.7
9-5 3.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
8-6 2.0% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-7 1.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-8 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-9 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 14.8% 12.6% 2.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.7 4.5 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 85.2 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 52.5 40.4 6.7 0.2 0.2