Preseason Rankings
Washington
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#42
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#97
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 13.4% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 13.4% 4.6%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 13.4% 4.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.6% 57.8% 33.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.7% 50.2% 26.4%
Average Seed 7.6 7.3 8.5
.500 or above 85.8% 91.5% 75.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 86.5% 75.2%
Conference Champion 19.6% 22.8% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Four7.0% 7.5% 6.0%
First Round46.2% 54.2% 31.0%
Second Round27.3% 32.9% 16.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 14.8% 6.8%
Elite Eight5.2% 6.5% 2.7%
Final Four2.4% 3.0% 1.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.8 - 3.20.8 - 3.2
Quad 1b1.4 - 2.12.2 - 5.3
Quad 23.9 - 2.96.2 - 8.2
Quad 37.2 - 2.013.3 - 10.2
Quad 47.0 - 0.520.3 - 10.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 60   Western Kentucky W 77-76 66%    
  Nov 09, 2018 13   @ Auburn L 78-82 25%    
  Nov 12, 2018 121   San Diego W 75-68 82%    
  Nov 18, 2018 217   Santa Clara W 76-63 88%    
  Nov 20, 2018 64   Texas A&M W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 21, 2018 68   Minnesota W 78-76 57%    
  Nov 27, 2018 174   Eastern Washington W 78-67 89%    
  Dec 02, 2018 177   UC Santa Barbara W 78-67 88%    
  Dec 05, 2018 5   @ Gonzaga L 72-80 17%    
  Dec 09, 2018 244   Seattle W 80-65 94%    
  Dec 15, 2018 20   Virginia Tech L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 21, 2018 257   Sacramento St. W 79-63 95%    
  Jan 01, 2019 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 79-70 84%    
  Jan 05, 2019 191   Washington St. W 82-70 90%    
  Jan 10, 2019 87   @ Utah W 73-68 55%    
  Jan 12, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 75-71 54%    
  Jan 17, 2019 108   Stanford W 78-72 79%    
  Jan 19, 2019 198   California W 79-67 90%    
  Jan 24, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 72-75 30%    
  Jan 26, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 73-69 54%    
  Jan 30, 2019 58   USC W 75-74 64%    
  Feb 02, 2019 50   UCLA W 79-78 62%    
  Feb 07, 2019 66   @ Arizona W 76-74 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 43   @ Arizona St. W 81-80 40%    
  Feb 16, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 82-70 76%    
  Feb 20, 2019 87   Utah W 73-68 73%    
  Feb 23, 2019 84   Colorado W 75-71 72%    
  Feb 28, 2019 198   @ California W 79-67 77%    
  Mar 03, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 78-72 60%    
  Mar 06, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 73-69 73%    
  Mar 09, 2019 17   Oregon L 72-75 49%    
Projected Record 20.3 - 10.7 11.5 - 6.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 5.5 4.5 2.8 0.8 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.6 5.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.4 8.4 10.1 11.9 12.5 12.4 10.4 8.2 5.1 2.8 0.8 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.9% 2.8    2.7 0.2
16-2 89.3% 4.5    3.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 68.0% 5.5    3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.9% 3.8    1.7 1.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.6 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 98.3% 65.1% 33.3% 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.3%
17-1 2.8% 99.0% 40.1% 58.9% 2.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
16-2 5.1% 99.4% 35.3% 64.0% 4.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-3 8.2% 96.1% 25.3% 70.7% 5.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 94.7%
14-4 10.4% 89.4% 20.7% 68.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 86.7%
13-5 12.4% 76.9% 15.6% 61.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 72.7%
12-6 12.5% 57.1% 11.2% 45.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.3 51.7%
11-7 11.9% 33.0% 8.8% 24.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 26.5%
10-8 10.1% 18.6% 6.6% 12.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2 12.9%
9-9 8.4% 8.0% 4.4% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 3.8%
8-10 6.4% 6.5% 4.5% 2.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.1%
7-11 4.6% 2.0% 1.8% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.3%
6-12 3.1% 1.9% 1.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 49.6% 13.6% 36.0% 7.6 1.3 2.4 2.7 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.1 5.1 6.5 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 50.4 41.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.9 4.1