Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.1#350
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.3% 5.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.7% 29.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.2% 29.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 44.9% 29.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.7% 68.8% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.2% 65.4% 17.8%
Average Seed 5.4 5.4 8.2
.500 or above 81.4% 81.6% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 71.1% 29.0%
Conference Champion 12.8% 12.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.2% 10.8%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
First Round67.8% 67.9% 17.8%
Second Round47.7% 47.8% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen26.0% 26.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight12.6% 12.7% 0.4%
Final Four5.8% 5.8% 0.4%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.6 - 5.32.6 - 5.3
Quad 1b3.3 - 2.95.9 - 8.2
Quad 25.4 - 2.411.4 - 10.6
Quad 33.8 - 0.715.2 - 11.3
Quad 44.5 - 0.119.7 - 11.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 77-50 99.7%   
  Nov 13, 2018 44   @ Xavier W 72-69 49%    
  Nov 17, 2018 312   Houston Baptist W 84-62 99%    
  Nov 21, 2018 108   Stanford W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 22, 2018 53   Oklahoma W 76-72 64%    
  Nov 23, 2018 2   Virginia L 55-61 30%    
  Nov 27, 2018 38   North Carolina St. W 74-72 69%    
  Nov 30, 2018 34   @ Iowa W 73-71 46%    
  Dec 03, 2018 140   Rutgers W 68-57 89%    
  Dec 08, 2018 24   @ Marquette W 72-71 42%    
  Dec 13, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 93-62 99.9%   
  Dec 22, 2018 296   Grambling St. W 79-58 98%    
  Dec 29, 2018 60   @ Western Kentucky W 72-68 56%    
  Jan 03, 2019 68   Minnesota W 72-67 75%    
  Jan 06, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 67-63 54%    
  Jan 11, 2019 27   Purdue W 67-66 62%    
  Jan 14, 2019 32   @ Maryland W 67-65 45%    
  Jan 19, 2019 19   Michigan L 63-64 59%    
  Jan 23, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 73-67 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 62   Northwestern W 66-62 73%    
  Jan 29, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 68-66 46%    
  Feb 01, 2019 32   Maryland W 67-65 65%    
  Feb 06, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 72-67 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 63-64 39%    
  Feb 12, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 66-69 51%    
  Feb 18, 2019 76   Illinois W 73-67 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 66-62 55%    
  Feb 26, 2019 25   @ Indiana W 67-66 42%    
  Mar 02, 2019 57   Penn St. W 67-63 72%    
  Mar 07, 2019 34   Iowa W 73-71 66%    
  Mar 10, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 67-64 47%    
Projected Record 19.7 - 11.3 11.4 - 7.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.7 3.3 1.5 0.4 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.4 0.7 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.6 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.5 5.3 7.1 8.4 9.9 10.7 11.2 10.4 9.6 7.8 5.8 3.7 1.5 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 97.1% 1.5    1.3 0.1
17-3 90.3% 3.3    2.5 0.9 0.0
16-4 63.5% 3.7    2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.3% 2.7    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.6% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.8 3.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 54.9% 45.1% 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.4 1.3 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.8% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.1 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.6% 99.4% 14.3% 85.1% 4.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 10.4% 98.7% 13.1% 85.6% 5.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-8 11.2% 94.3% 9.8% 84.5% 6.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 93.7%
11-9 10.7% 82.6% 6.4% 76.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 81.5%
10-10 9.9% 60.7% 5.1% 55.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 58.5%
9-11 8.4% 36.4% 4.3% 32.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 33.6%
8-12 7.1% 13.5% 2.2% 11.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 11.6%
7-13 5.3% 5.3% 2.8% 2.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.6%
6-14 3.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.4%
5-15 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.7% 10.0% 58.7% 5.4 5.3 7.4 8.8 7.7 7.6 8.1 6.6 5.9 4.5 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 65.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3