UMKC
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#229
Achievement Rating-4.3#226
Pace67.0#235
Improvement+5.7#12

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#234
First Shot+0.6#165
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#333
Layup/Dunks+2.6#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#127
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement+3.6#32

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#237
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#272
Layups/Dunks-0.4#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement+2.1#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 63.5% 16.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 45-76 16%     0 - 1 -24.3 -24.0 +0.4
  Nov 08, 2018 26   @ Iowa L 63-77 4%     0 - 2 +1.7 -8.0 +10.1
  Nov 11, 2018 83   @ Connecticut L 66-94 12%     0 - 3 -19.2 -2.4 -17.1
  Nov 16, 2018 268   Morehead St. L 89-99 57%     0 - 4 -16.0 +3.5 -18.7
  Nov 17, 2018 238   @ Eastern Washington L 80-87 41%     0 - 5 -8.8 -6.1 -1.8
  Nov 21, 2018 130   Drake L 63-66 34%     0 - 6 -3.0 -12.6 +9.7
  Nov 28, 2018 77   @ South Dakota St. L 47-75 11%     0 - 7 -18.9 -22.3 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2018 181   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-73 29%     1 - 7 +18.5 +17.4 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2018 231   @ South Dakota W 65-63 40%     2 - 7 +0.4 -2.5 +3.0
  Dec 13, 2018 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 66-69 75%     2 - 8 -14.1 -9.9 -4.3
  Dec 15, 2018 324   McNeese St. W 80-67 81%     3 - 8 -0.4 -1.4 +1.1
  Dec 19, 2018 147   @ Central Michigan L 72-81 22%     3 - 9 -4.9 -1.7 -3.2
  Dec 22, 2018 316   Elon W 95-59 78%     4 - 9 +23.6 +13.2 +9.1
  Dec 27, 2018 51   @ Creighton L 53-89 7%     4 - 10 -24.0 -15.0 -9.7
  Jan 05, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 80-72 95%     5 - 10 1 - 0 -14.7 -4.1 -10.6
  Jan 10, 2019 217   California Baptist W 84-68 57%     6 - 10 2 - 0 +10.0 +2.0 +7.3
  Jan 17, 2019 200   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 73-74 33%     6 - 11 2 - 1 -0.6 +6.4 -7.1
  Jan 19, 2019 102   @ Grand Canyon L 50-78 14%     6 - 12 2 - 2 -20.4 -17.7 -3.5
  Jan 24, 2019 114   Utah Valley L 67-75 30%     6 - 13 2 - 3 -6.8 -6.8 +0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 193   Seattle W 63-54 52%     7 - 13 3 - 3 +4.3 -4.1 +9.3
  Jan 31, 2019 62   @ New Mexico St. L 54-70 10%     7 - 14 3 - 4 -5.8 -3.0 -6.0
  Feb 02, 2019 186   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 63-75 30%     7 - 15 3 - 5 -10.8 -4.0 -7.0
  Feb 09, 2019 217   @ California Baptist L 60-70 36%     7 - 16 3 - 6 -10.5 -8.4 -3.3
  Feb 14, 2019 102   Grand Canyon W 87-75 27%     8 - 16 4 - 6 +14.1 +15.6 -1.5
  Feb 16, 2019 200   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-67 54%     9 - 16 5 - 6 +2.9 +7.1 -3.3
  Feb 21, 2019 193   @ Seattle L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 23, 2019 114   @ Utah Valley L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 28, 2019 62   New Mexico St. L 64-73 21%    
  Mar 02, 2019 186   UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-68 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 11.1 - 18.9 7.1 - 8.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 0.4 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.5 3.9 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 3.7 12.7 0.8 17.2 5th
6th 0.2 9.9 29.2 7.3 0.0 46.7 6th
7th 2.3 15.5 7.4 0.1 25.3 7th
8th 0.6 0.4 1.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.1 25.8 40.2 23.8 6.4 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.6% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-7 6.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
8-8 23.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 23.3
7-9 40.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.5 39.7
6-10 25.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 25.6
5-11 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 14.7 29.7 70.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 2.7%