Elon
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#316
Achievement Rating-10.4#312
Pace69.5#167
Improvement+1.8#99

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#304
First Shot-3.1#271
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#328
Layup/Dunks-5.5#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#53
Freethrows-2.5#321
Improvement-0.6#218

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#288
First Shot-4.5#304
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#158
Layups/Dunks-0.9#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#330
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+2.4#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 78.3% 57.8% 95.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 308   @ Manhattan W 62-56 35%     1 - 0 +0.3 -5.1 +5.7
  Nov 09, 2018 6   North Carolina L 67-116 2%     1 - 1 -32.1 -10.4 -13.4
  Nov 22, 2018 169   Abilene Christian L 56-72 19%     1 - 2 -16.3 -1.3 -19.2
  Nov 23, 2018 311   UC Riverside L 64-77 57%     1 - 3 -24.5 -13.7 -11.4
  Nov 24, 2018 187   @ Pacific L 57-65 16%     1 - 4 -6.8 -17.6 +11.2
  Dec 01, 2018 232   Boston University L 58-65 40%     1 - 5 -14.2 -19.6 +5.4
  Dec 04, 2018 64   Furman L 77-98 10%     1 - 6 -16.4 +5.7 -21.4
  Dec 07, 2018 110   UNC Greensboro L 74-75 15%     1 - 7 +0.4 +1.0 -0.6
  Dec 16, 2018 247   Canisius L 91-92 43%     1 - 8 -8.9 +11.2 -20.0
  Dec 18, 2018 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-67 56%     2 - 8 -2.2 +0.5 -2.5
  Dec 22, 2018 229   @ UMKC L 59-95 22%     2 - 9 -37.4 -16.7 -19.4
  Dec 28, 2018 253   Towson L 60-77 44%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -25.2 -11.1 -15.8
  Dec 30, 2018 258   James Madison W 68-65 45%     3 - 10 1 - 1 -5.4 -2.7 -2.4
  Jan 03, 2019 243   @ Drexel L 65-79 23%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -16.1 -10.5 -6.0
  Jan 05, 2019 249   @ Delaware L 65-77 24%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -14.4 -3.8 -12.0
  Jan 10, 2019 101   Northeastern L 70-81 14%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -8.9 -12.1 +4.5
  Jan 12, 2019 87   Hofstra L 71-74 12%     3 - 14 1 - 5 +0.1 +0.6 -0.8
  Jan 19, 2019 204   @ William & Mary W 76-71 18%     4 - 14 2 - 5 +5.2 +1.2 +4.0
  Jan 24, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 53-72 8%     4 - 15 2 - 6 -13.0 -15.1 +1.0
  Jan 26, 2019 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 89-82 25%     5 - 15 3 - 6 +4.3 +4.6 -0.7
  Jan 31, 2019 249   Delaware W 57-56 43%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -6.9 -14.4 +7.6
  Feb 02, 2019 243   Drexel L 63-67 42%     6 - 16 4 - 7 -11.6 -8.5 -3.7
  Feb 07, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 61-102 5%     6 - 17 4 - 8 -32.4 -12.6 -19.7
  Feb 09, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 60-72 6%     6 - 18 4 - 9 -4.4 -15.5 +12.0
  Feb 16, 2019 204   William & Mary L 74-84 34%     6 - 19 4 - 10 -15.4 -8.3 -6.4
  Feb 21, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 123   College of Charleston L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 28, 2019 258   @ James Madison L 66-73 25%    
  Mar 02, 2019 253   @ Towson L 63-70 25%    
Projected Record 7.1 - 21.9 5.1 - 12.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.8 0.4 1.1 5th
6th 0.5 3.5 0.2 4.2 6th
7th 5.0 2.0 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 12.5 0.3 12.8 8th
9th 16.7 5.8 0.0 22.5 9th
10th 27.0 24.9 0.3 52.2 10th
Total 27.0 41.6 24.1 6.6 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 24.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.1
5-13 41.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 41.6
4-14 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 19.2%