Elon
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#301
Achievement Rating-15.4#327
Pace71.1#148
Improvement+1.4#78

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#288
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#341
Layup/Dunks-3.2#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows-2.1#282
Improvement+1.0#88

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#289
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#288
Layups/Dunks-0.4#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#280
Freethrows-0.6#208
Improvement+0.4#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 2.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.5% 14.6% 8.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.7% 32.6% 42.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 310   @ Manhattan W 62-56 41%     1 - 0 +0.3 -4.3 +5.0
  Nov 09, 2018 8   North Carolina L 67-116 3%     1 - 1 -33.9 -13.0 -12.7
  Nov 22, 2018 166   Abilene Christian L 56-72 23%     1 - 2 -16.2 -2.5 -17.9
  Nov 23, 2018 293   UC Riverside L 64-77 59%     1 - 3 -23.3 -10.1 -13.8
  Nov 24, 2018 163   @ Pacific L 57-65 15%     1 - 4 -5.0 -18.4 +13.8
  Dec 01, 2018 187   Boston University L 58-65 37%     1 - 5 -11.5 -14.6 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2018 106   Furman L 77-98 18%     1 - 6 -19.2 +2.5 -20.9
  Dec 07, 2018 89   UNC Greensboro L 74-75 16%     1 - 7 +1.8 +0.3 +1.5
  Dec 16, 2018 226   Canisius L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 18, 2018 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 22, 2018 267   @ UMKC L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 28, 2018 297   Towson W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 30, 2018 233   James Madison L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 03, 2019 251   @ Drexel L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 05, 2019 220   @ Delaware L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 10, 2019 85   Northeastern L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 12, 2019 131   Hofstra L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 19, 2019 199   @ William & Mary L 73-82 21%    
  Jan 24, 2019 122   @ College of Charleston L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 26, 2019 219   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-83 24%    
  Jan 31, 2019 220   Delaware L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 02, 2019 251   Drexel W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 07, 2019 131   @ Hofstra L 69-83 11%    
  Feb 09, 2019 85   @ Northeastern L 65-82 7%    
  Feb 16, 2019 199   William & Mary L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 21, 2019 219   UNC Wilmington L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 23, 2019 122   College of Charleston L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 28, 2019 233   @ James Madison L 66-73 28%    
  Mar 02, 2019 297   @ Towson L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 7.8 - 21.2 5.4 - 12.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.4 1.6 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.9 6.7 2.2 0.1 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.7 7.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 21.3 9th
10th 0.9 3.4 6.7 8.1 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 26.4 10th
Total 0.9 3.4 7.3 11.5 14.9 15.6 14.4 11.9 8.6 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 84.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 50.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
10-8 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.1
9-9 5.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
8-10 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.5
7-11 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 15.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
2-16 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
1-17 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%