Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Dayton 99.7%   3   18 - 2 7 - 0 27 - 4 16 - 2 +16.1      +10.7 3 +5.4 58 69.5 167 +18.2 7 +20.5 1
42 Virginia Commonwealth 50.2%   15 - 5 5 - 2 23 - 8 13 - 5 +10.7      +2.8 96 +7.9 19 72.2 97 +9.8 50 +8.8 4
59 Rhode Island 37.1%   14 - 5 6 - 1 21 - 9 13 - 5 +8.4      +2.7 100 +5.7 44 74.7 56 +11.2 38 +14.3 2
75 Richmond 17.3%   15 - 5 5 - 2 22 - 9 12 - 6 +7.0      +5.1 46 +1.9 116 68.5 209 +9.8 48 +10.7 3
93 Davidson 3.8%   10 - 9 4 - 3 16 - 14 10 - 8 +5.8      +4.4 57 +1.3 132 63.4 320 +3.2 119 +3.7 8
95 Saint Louis 6.3%   14 - 5 4 - 3 20 - 10 10 - 8 +5.5      -0.2 183 +5.7 49 67.8 231 +9.2 58 +5.8 7
110 Duquesne 2.9%   15 - 4 5 - 2 20 - 10 10 - 8 +4.3      +0.9 154 +3.4 85 68.1 215 +6.4 84 +6.9 5
119 St. Bonaventure 1.4%   11 - 8 4 - 3 17 - 13 10 - 8 +3.1      +1.3 141 +1.8 122 63.2 321 +2.9 125 +6.5 6
154 George Mason 0.3%   13 - 7 2 - 5 17 - 14 6 - 12 +0.6      0.0 177 +0.6 146 68.0 226 +3.8 113 -2.7 10
179 La Salle 0.1%   10 - 9 1 - 6 15 - 15 6 - 12 -0.8      -2.8 256 +2.0 114 72.1 99 +1.7 140 -6.3 12
191 George Washington 0.0%   9 - 11 3 - 4 12 - 19 6 - 12 -1.8      -1.2 212 -0.6 181 66.7 249 -3.9 227 -2.1 9
195 Massachusetts 0.1%   8 - 12 2 - 5 11 - 20 5 - 13 -2.1      -0.7 195 -1.5 213 71.7 108 -1.2 188 -2.9 11
250 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   4 - 16 0 - 7 7 - 24 3 - 15 -5.0      -0.9 198 -4.2 291 77.2 27 -4.1 231 -9.8 14
264 Fordham 0.0%   7 - 12 1 - 6 10 - 20 4 - 14 -5.6      -7.9 339 +2.3 104 61.3 337 -8.5 299 -7.5 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Dayton 1.1 93.4 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 3.4 4.5 33.9 23.0 16.1 10.1 6.2 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 2.8 9.9 40.2 25.9 11.8 6.5 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.0
Richmond 3.7 2.4 25.7 24.5 19.1 12.5 8.0 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 5.9 0.2 4.3 8.2 11.9 15.4 18.4 20.5 15.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 5.5 0.3 5.5 10.8 14.8 18.2 17.8 16.2 11.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 5.5 0.5 5.2 10.3 15.6 17.5 17.9 16.3 12.4 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.6 0.3 5.4 10.5 15.4 17.8 15.5 14.9 14.5 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 4.3 10.2 27.7 23.0 16.7 10.7 4.3 0.7
La Salle 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.4 8.9 21.6 21.2 18.6 13.3 7.5 3.2
George Washington 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 8.0 25.4 24.9 20.5 11.7 4.1 0.4
Massachusetts 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.1 15.0 19.7 22.4 21.1 12.4 3.7
Saint Joseph's 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.4 7.5 12.9 27.2 45.7
Fordham 12.3 0.1 0.2 1.0 4.7 8.3 12.6 17.7 33.0 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 16 - 2 0.1 0.3 1.4 5.6 14.6 28.1 32.4 17.6
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 7.5 14.4 21.8 23.3 18.6 8.8 1.9
Rhode Island 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 10.5 18.3 25.2 22.8 12.8 4.6 0.5
Richmond 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.3 9.7 17.7 23.1 22.3 14.6 5.8 1.1
Davidson 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 10.1 19.2 24.4 22.0 12.6 5.3 1.3 0.1
Saint Louis 10 - 8 0.2 1.0 3.0 7.5 16.0 22.1 22.5 17.5 7.8 2.2 0.2
Duquesne 10 - 8 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.5 16.3 22.7 23.5 16.4 7.5 2.1 0.4 0.0
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.7 15.4 21.4 22.0 15.5 8.7 2.8 0.6
George Mason 6 - 12 0.4 2.6 9.2 19.2 23.9 20.4 15.0 6.9 2.0 0.4 0.1
La Salle 6 - 12 0.2 1.6 6.1 13.0 20.5 21.8 18.0 11.5 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
George Washington 6 - 12 2.2 10.8 22.2 26.3 21.2 10.9 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.1
Massachusetts 5 - 13 2.0 9.7 20.1 26.6 20.8 12.9 5.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 3 - 15 3.7 14.4 23.9 24.5 18.4 9.7 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fordham 4 - 14 5.6 16.2 24.8 23.9 16.2 8.5 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 93.4% 84.1 8.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.5% 1.1 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9.9% 4.1 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Richmond 2.4% 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Davidson 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason
La Salle
George Washington
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 99.7% 54.4% 45.3% 3   17.7 21.6 17.3 17.4 10.6 6.3 4.6 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 50.2% 17.5% 32.7% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.6 4.4 7.3 11.3 17.7 3.4 0.0 49.8 39.7%
Rhode Island 37.1% 10.3% 26.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 5.6 8.2 15.1 3.6 0.0 62.9 29.8%
Richmond 17.3% 6.3% 11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 8.8 2.6 0.0 82.7 11.7%
Davidson 3.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 96.2 0.2%
Saint Louis 6.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 3.0 2.1 0.1 93.7 2.8%
Duquesne 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.2 97.1 0.4%
St. Bonaventure 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 98.6 0.0%
George Mason 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Dayton 99.7% 0.1% 99.6% 86.6% 54.7% 30.0% 14.8% 6.9% 3.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 50.2% 12.9% 44.2% 21.5% 7.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Rhode Island 37.1% 12.8% 29.8% 11.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Richmond 17.3% 6.5% 13.3% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 6.3% 2.0% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 2.9% 0.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 16.9 51.3 27.7 4.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 23.6 54.3 20.4 1.7
2nd Round 92.8% 1.3 7.2 61.3 28.6 2.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 61.0% 0.7 39.0 54.8 6.1 0.1
Elite Eight 33.4% 0.3 66.6 32.2 1.2 0.0
Final Four 16.1% 0.2 83.9 15.9 0.2
Final Game 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4 0.0
Champion 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3