Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Virginia Commonwealth 64.1%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +10.8      +3.5 80 +7.3 24 72.2 121 +17.4 17 0.0 1
64 Dayton 35.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +8.0      +6.0 35 +2.1 111 63.5 321 +10.5 53 0.0 1
73 Rhode Island 28.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +7.0      +2.7 96 +4.3 66 72.2 119 +12.9 40 0.0 1
86 Davidson 15.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +6.1      +3.6 79 +2.5 99 63.4 325 -10.5 301 0.0 1
98 Duquesne 12.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +5.0      +1.8 120 +3.2 84 70.7 154 +7.0 84 0.0 1
107 Saint Louis 8.9%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3.6      +0.1 169 +3.5 75 67.4 247 +7.4 79 0.0 1
115 Richmond 6.9%   2 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.7      +6.0 34 -3.3 277 68.4 215 +10.4 54 0.0 1
149 George Mason 3.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +1.0      +0.5 157 +0.4 147 68.1 226 +5.6 103 0.0 1
160 St. Bonaventure 1.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 0.0      -2.6 259 +2.6 96 63.2 326 -13.0 319 0.0 1
173 Saint Joseph's 1.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -0.7      +1.5 128 -2.3 237 86.0 6 +8.5 72 0.0 1
191 Massachusetts 1.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -1.7      -0.3 183 -1.4 200 68.5 213 +9.7 60 0.0 1
199 La Salle 0.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -2.3      -3.5 284 +1.2 130 72.1 124 +0.8 166 0.0 1
228 George Washington 0.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -3.6      -3.3 282 -0.3 167 68.3 217 -12.3 316 0.0 1
234 Fordham 0.4%   2 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 12 -3.8      -6.1 324 +2.3 105 63.7 319 +4.1 122 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.7 41.1 20.1 12.6 8.5 5.9 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Dayton 4.0 22.7 17.4 13.5 10.8 8.7 7.1 5.9 4.5 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3
Rhode Island 4.4 17.2 16.2 13.8 11.9 9.9 8.3 6.6 5.2 3.9 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.3
Davidson 4.8 14.4 14.6 13.3 12.0 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.9 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.5
Duquesne 5.0 11.1 13.6 13.3 12.4 10.8 9.4 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.6
Saint Louis 6.1 6.7 9.1 10.3 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.3 8.6 7.1 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.3 1.1
Richmond 6.8 5.0 7.3 8.3 9.2 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.4 7.1 6.1 4.8 3.6 2.1
George Mason 7.7 2.8 4.6 6.0 7.3 8.3 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.0 7.0 5.6 3.8
St. Bonaventure 8.1 2.1 3.7 5.4 6.7 7.6 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.4 8.6 7.7 6.5 5.1
Saint Joseph's 9.2 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.7 8.5 9.7 10.6 10.9 10.8 10.5 8.2
Massachusetts 9.7 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.5 7.0 8.2 9.5 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.1 10.0
La Salle 9.6 0.8 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.8 6.0 7.1 8.2 9.3 10.1 11.1 11.3 12.0 11.1
George Washington 10.4 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.4 5.6 6.9 8.3 10.0 11.6 13.6 15.2 16.2
Fordham 10.5 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.0 5.2 6.8 8.2 9.8 11.5 13.4 15.3 17.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.8 8.6 11.5 14.1 15.6 14.7 11.9 7.3 2.6
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.6 7.6 9.7 11.7 12.9 13.2 11.8 9.4 6.3 3.1 0.9
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.4 8.9 11.2 13.0 13.4 12.9 10.7 7.7 4.4 1.8 0.4
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.5 9.8 11.7 13.0 13.1 11.9 9.5 6.8 3.6 1.5 0.3
Duquesne 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.6 8.1 10.7 12.5 13.5 12.9 11.3 8.6 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.2
Saint Louis 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.5 10.8 12.4 13.1 12.4 10.8 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.7 9.9 11.9 12.4 12.4 10.8 9.1 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
George Mason 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.2 7.6 9.9 11.8 12.6 12.4 11.1 8.9 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.1 8.3 10.7 12.3 12.7 12.1 10.5 8.1 5.9 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.4 9.2 11.3 12.7 12.8 11.8 10.0 7.7 5.6 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 4.3 7.6 10.3 12.8 14.0 12.9 11.0 8.9 6.3 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.5 7.5 10.2 12.1 12.8 12.5 11.1 9.0 6.9 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 6 - 12 0.9 3.3 6.7 10.1 12.7 14.1 13.1 11.8 9.6 6.9 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 1.1 3.8 7.1 10.9 12.8 13.6 13.2 11.3 9.3 6.6 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 41.1% 29.3 9.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 22.7% 14.5 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 17.2% 10.3 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 14.4% 8.5 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 11.1% 6.1 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 6.7% 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Richmond 5.0% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
George Mason 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 64.1% 30.7% 33.4% 11   1.1 1.9 2.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.1 7.4 8.9 13.3 5.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 35.9 48.1%
Dayton 35.9% 18.1% 17.7% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.7 5.3 9.6 5.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 64.1 21.7%
Rhode Island 28.0% 13.5% 14.5% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.7 4.0 8.4 5.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.0 16.7%
Davidson 15.5% 11.4% 4.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 4.2 4.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 84.5 4.6%
Duquesne 12.1% 8.5% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.2 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 87.9 4.0%
Saint Louis 8.9% 5.6% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.5 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 91.1 3.5%
Richmond 6.9% 4.4% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 93.1 2.6%
George Mason 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.8%
St. Bonaventure 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 98.2 0.1%
Saint Joseph's 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3 0.4%
Massachusetts 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.2%
La Salle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.1%
George Washington 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 64.1% 9.5% 59.3% 32.1% 12.5% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Dayton 35.9% 6.9% 32.4% 15.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Rhode Island 28.0% 6.5% 24.5% 9.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Davidson 15.5% 1.9% 14.6% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Duquesne 12.1% 2.3% 11.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 8.9% 1.8% 7.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 6.9% 1.5% 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 3.1% 0.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 37.5 46.3 14.5 1.7 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 46.9 42.7 9.6 0.8 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 58.6% 0.7 41.4 46.3 11.4 0.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 23.5% 0.2 76.5 22.0 1.4 0.0
Elite Eight 8.8% 0.1 91.2 8.6 0.2
Final Four 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.1 0.0
Final Game 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4