Davidson
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#169
Pace63.4#324
Improvement+3.2#2

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#37
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#298
Layup/Dunks+3.8#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#14
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement+2.7#2

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#209
Layups/Dunks-2.3#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#31
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement+0.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 4.4% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 32.4% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 16.4% 5.4%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.7
.500 or above 90.2% 94.1% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 93.8% 87.9%
Conference Champion 22.9% 25.8% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.6% 5.5% 2.4%
First Round26.0% 30.0% 17.0%
Second Round11.6% 14.0% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.9% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Neutral) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 38 - 313 - 10
Quad 47 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 20   Auburn L 66-76 32%     0 - 1 +3.5 -2.2 +5.9
  Nov 12, 2019 213   @ Charlotte L 58-71 79%     0 - 2 -12.8 -7.5 -6.4
  Nov 16, 2019 281   UNC Wilmington W 87-49 94%     1 - 2 +28.6 +11.5 +19.4
  Nov 19, 2019 126   Nevada W 91-71 81%     2 - 2 +19.3 +19.6 +0.2
  Nov 22, 2019 106   Wake Forest W 73-68 69%    
  Nov 28, 2019 26   Marquette L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 07, 2019 104   @ Northeastern W 71-69 55%    
  Dec 10, 2019 324   Coppin St. W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 22, 2019 130   @ Loyola Chicago W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 30, 2019 122   @ Vanderbilt W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 05, 2020 96   @ Duquesne W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 08, 2020 81   @ Rhode Island L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 11, 2020 188   Saint Joseph's W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 14, 2020 107   Richmond W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 19, 2020 228   @ Fordham W 66-57 79%    
  Jan 22, 2020 115   Saint Louis W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 25, 2020 147   George Mason W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 29, 2020 258   @ George Washington W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 167   Massachusetts W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 07, 2020 40   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 11, 2020 228   Fordham W 69-54 90%    
  Feb 14, 2020 144   @ St. Bonaventure W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 18, 2020 188   @ Saint Joseph's W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 22, 2020 81   Rhode Island W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 25, 2020 207   La Salle W 75-61 88%    
  Feb 28, 2020 57   @ Dayton L 68-71 37%    
  Mar 03, 2020 107   @ Richmond W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 06, 2020 40   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.5 7.1 5.9 3.2 0.8 22.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.8 7.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.4 5.7 2.0 0.2 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.5 4.7 1.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.2 9.5 11.7 14.7 15.2 13.6 10.5 6.4 3.2 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.8% 3.2    3.0 0.2
16-2 92.7% 5.9    4.7 1.2 0.1
15-3 67.7% 7.1    4.0 2.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.7% 4.5    1.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.1% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.1 6.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 96.6% 52.0% 44.6% 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
17-1 3.2% 91.0% 44.5% 46.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 83.7%
16-2 6.4% 78.6% 36.5% 42.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 1.4 66.3%
15-3 10.5% 57.6% 31.6% 26.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 38.0%
14-4 13.6% 39.3% 23.9% 15.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 20.2%
13-5 15.2% 22.4% 16.9% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.8 6.6%
12-6 14.7% 16.6% 14.9% 1.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.3 2.0%
11-7 11.7% 8.9% 7.8% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 1.2%
10-8 9.5% 6.0% 5.9% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.0 0.0%
9-9 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
8-10 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9
7-11 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 27.9% 17.4% 10.6% 9.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.7 3.4 8.5 5.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 72.1 12.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 12.0 45.8 26.5 15.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 28.3 26.1 2.2 8.7 34.8