Richmond
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#47
Pace67.2#243
Improvement-1.7#257

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#44
First Shot+8.9#5
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#339
Layup/Dunks+4.0#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#60
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement-2.0#279

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot+3.0#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#303
Layups/Dunks+1.5#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#199
Freethrows+0.7#142
Improvement+0.4#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 21.5% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.7% 15.0% 7.3%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.6% 92.6%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.0% 7.5% 4.5%
First Round15.9% 17.2% 9.0%
Second Round5.3% 5.8% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 23 - 26 - 6
Quad 38 - 314 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 185   St. Francis (PA) W 100-98 OT 84%     1 - 0 -1.9 +10.0 -12.2
  Nov 14, 2019 142   Vanderbilt W 93-92 OT 78%     2 - 0 -0.3 +3.1 -3.5
  Nov 17, 2019 262   Cal St. Northridge W 90-62 92%     3 - 0 +19.4 +14.1 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2019 286   McNeese St. W 87-57 94%     4 - 0 +19.8 +9.0 +12.1
  Nov 25, 2019 24   Wisconsin W 62-52 28%     5 - 0 +23.0 +3.1 +20.8
  Nov 26, 2019 25   Auburn L 65-79 29%     5 - 1 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2019 153   Boston College W 64-44 80%     6 - 1 +18.1 -5.8 +24.2
  Dec 03, 2019 325   @ Hampton W 80-63 90%     7 - 1 +9.8 +10.8 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2019 180   South Alabama W 75-57 84%     8 - 1 +14.4 +2.2 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2019 124   College of Charleston W 78-71 75%     9 - 1 +6.8 +6.5 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2019 169   @ Old Dominion W 62-59 66%     10 - 1 +5.6 -1.5 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2019 141   Radford L 58-73 70%     10 - 2 -13.4 -12.9 -1.3
  Dec 29, 2019 40   @ Alabama L 78-90 25%     10 - 3 +2.0 +6.6 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2020 241   Saint Joseph's W 84-52 90%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +24.7 +1.5 +21.6
  Jan 05, 2020 73   @ Rhode Island W 69-61 37%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +18.2 +3.0 +15.1
  Jan 11, 2020 92   Saint Louis L 58-74 65%     12 - 4 2 - 1 -13.1 -11.9 -0.8
  Jan 14, 2020 103   @ Davidson W 70-64 47%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +13.6 +4.8 +9.2
  Jan 18, 2020 157   @ George Mason W 97-87 63%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +13.5 +19.5 -6.7
  Jan 22, 2020 172   La Salle W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 25, 2020 9   Dayton L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 28, 2020 44   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 01, 2020 192   George Washington W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 08, 2020 259   @ Fordham W 67-57 81%    
  Feb 12, 2020 172   @ La Salle W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 15, 2020 44   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 19, 2020 157   George Mason W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 22, 2020 118   @ St. Bonaventure W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 26, 2020 192   @ George Washington W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 29, 2020 200   Massachusetts W 79-67 88%    
  Mar 03, 2020 103   Davidson W 71-66 68%    
  Mar 06, 2020 89   @ Duquesne L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.8 0.4 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.8 10.4 4.4 0.6 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.2 9.0 2.5 0.1 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.1 9.0 2.5 0.1 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.5 3.2 0.2 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.6 3.7 0.4 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.8 10.1 16.7 21.5 19.7 14.6 7.6 2.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 76.3% 1.8    1.0 0.8
15-3 41.4% 3.1    1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 11.3% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 2.5 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 95.7% 20.0% 75.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.6%
16-2 2.3% 82.3% 18.4% 63.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 78.3%
15-3 7.6% 61.3% 16.2% 45.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.1 2.9 53.8%
14-4 14.6% 37.5% 10.9% 26.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.1 0.5 9.1 29.9%
13-5 19.7% 20.3% 8.1% 12.2% 11.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 0.9 15.7 13.2%
12-6 21.5% 10.1% 5.8% 4.3% 11.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.6 19.3 4.5%
11-7 16.7% 5.2% 3.8% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 15.9 1.5%
10-8 10.1% 3.1% 2.5% 0.6% 11.7 0.1 0.2 9.7 0.6%
9-9 4.8% 2.0% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 4.7
8-10 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.9% 7.2% 12.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.1 3.9 9.3 2.8 0.0 80.1 13.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.7 4.0 16.0 24.0 32.0 8.0 16.0