Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#85
Pace72.1#117
Improvement-0.4#224

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#109
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#151
Layup/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#137
Freethrows-0.9#227
Improvement-2.3#345

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#89
First Shot+3.2#87
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#196
Layups/Dunks-7.1#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#82
Freethrows+4.4#13
Improvement+2.0#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 12.2% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 4.6% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.7 11.6
.500 or above 91.3% 94.8% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 80.8% 69.3%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.6% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.2%
First Four2.0% 2.5% 0.8%
First Round9.3% 10.9% 5.7%
Second Round3.1% 3.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Neutral) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 410 - 9
Quad 411 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 208   Princeton W 94-67 84%     1 - 0 +21.4 +21.8 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2019 255   Lamar W 66-56 88%     2 - 0 +2.0 -11.4 +13.3
  Nov 15, 2019 213   Lipscomb W 58-36 84%     3 - 0 +16.3 -15.7 +32.0
  Nov 21, 2019 165   Indiana St. W 77-72 69%    
  Nov 22, 2019 192   Air Force W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 24, 2019 148   Loyola Marymount W 68-64 66%    
  Dec 04, 2019 322   VMI W 81-63 96%    
  Dec 09, 2019 175   Columbia W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 14, 2019 108   Radford W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 21, 2019 240   Austin Peay W 81-72 79%    
  Dec 22, 2019 186   UAB W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 29, 2019 223   Marshall W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 02, 2020 122   Saint Louis W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 05, 2020 63   Davidson L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 08, 2020 177   @ Saint Joseph's W 83-80 60%    
  Jan 11, 2020 258   @ George Washington W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 15, 2020 229   Fordham W 70-58 84%    
  Jan 22, 2020 83   @ Rhode Island L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 25, 2020 155   @ Massachusetts W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 29, 2020 55   Dayton L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 02, 2020 204   La Salle W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 05, 2020 122   @ Saint Louis L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2020 144   St. Bonaventure W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 16, 2020 229   @ Fordham W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 19, 2020 258   George Washington W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 22, 2020 55   @ Dayton L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 26, 2020 144   @ St. Bonaventure W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 29, 2020 145   George Mason W 73-66 73%    
  Mar 03, 2020 41   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 06, 2020 104   Richmond W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.3 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.7 1.1 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.6 1.4 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.9 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.2 8.6 10.9 12.8 13.5 12.8 10.7 7.8 5.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.7% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 87.3% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 63.6% 3.2    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.9% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.7% 40.0% 55.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.8%
17-1 0.9% 78.1% 32.7% 45.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 67.4%
16-2 2.6% 60.8% 25.8% 35.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 47.2%
15-3 5.0% 39.2% 20.6% 18.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.0 23.4%
14-4 7.8% 24.6% 17.0% 7.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 9.2%
13-5 10.7% 14.0% 11.6% 2.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.2 2.7%
12-6 12.8% 8.5% 8.1% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 0.5%
11-7 13.5% 5.1% 5.0% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.2%
10-8 12.8% 2.6% 2.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4
9-9 10.9% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
7-11 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.3% 7.0% 3.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 89.7 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 19.2 30.8 23.1 26.9