Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
56 Furman 40.9%   12   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 14 - 4 +8.9      +4.6 64 +4.2 68 67.1 259 +12.3 45 0.0 1
71 East Tennessee St. 29.0%   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 5 +7.3      +4.6 65 +2.7 93 68.0 229 +11.1 50 0.0 1
77 UNC Greensboro 26.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +6.8      +1.2 138 +5.7 48 68.2 218 +6.9 86 0.0 1
108 Wofford 11.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +3.5      +5.8 37 -2.3 238 65.6 289 -8.5 278 0.0 1
159 Western Carolina 3.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +0.1      +1.5 130 -1.4 201 76.1 54 +2.8 136 0.0 1
186 Samford 2.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -1.5      +1.5 131 -2.9 263 71.8 127 -10.2 298 0.0 1
208 Chattanooga 1.5%   3 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 -2.8      -2.2 249 -0.6 175 69.3 190 +1.5 156 0.0 1
213 Mercer 1.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -3.1      -0.7 199 -2.3 241 82.3 14 +0.7 168 0.0 1
305 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 6 - 20 4 - 14 -8.8      +0.1 170 -8.9 349 82.6 12 -18.4 348 0.0 1
328 VMI 0.0%   0 - 5 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 15 -11.2      -5.0 309 -6.2 332 69.1 196 -24.9 353 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.1 44.4 25.1 15.2 8.3 4.1 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Tennessee St. 2.6 31.0 25.0 18.9 12.4 6.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.7 27.6 25.2 20.1 13.1 7.5 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wofford 3.9 11.7 15.9 18.6 19.2 14.5 10.0 5.8 3.1 1.1 0.2
Western Carolina 5.2 3.1 6.6 10.7 16.0 19.5 17.3 13.6 8.5 3.7 1.1
Samford 5.8 2.0 4.2 7.7 12.3 16.6 18.1 16.8 12.8 6.9 2.6
Chattanooga 6.4 0.8 2.4 4.9 8.8 14.1 18.1 20.0 17.8 9.6 3.4
Mercer 6.5 0.9 2.2 4.7 8.8 13.3 17.6 19.6 18.2 10.5 4.1
The Citadel 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 11.2 18.8 32.0 26.0
VMI 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 6.2 13.9 29.6 45.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.9 10.4 14.1 16.5 17.0 14.4 9.0 3.3
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.8 9.9 13.0 14.8 15.5 13.9 10.0 5.4 1.6
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.8 7.4 10.7 13.4 15.4 15.4 13.0 9.0 4.4 1.3
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.0 12.3 13.7 13.7 12.0 9.1 6.0 3.2 1.3 0.3
Western Carolina 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.2 12.9 14.0 13.5 11.1 8.4 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Samford 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.4 8.2 10.8 12.7 13.3 12.6 11.3 8.5 5.8 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.3 7.6 11.0 13.5 14.5 13.7 11.7 8.6 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mercer 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.2 5.0 8.1 11.2 13.4 14.2 13.4 11.0 8.4 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 3.0 8.6 14.4 16.7 16.1 13.7 10.7 7.3 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 6.8 15.7 20.2 19.1 15.3 10.4 6.4 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 44.4% 32.3 10.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
East Tennessee St. 31.0% 21.0 8.2 1.7 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 27.6% 18.1 7.7 1.6 0.2 0.0
Wofford 11.7% 6.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Samford 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercer 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 40.9% 33.0% 7.9% 12   0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.3 9.6 13.3 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 59.1 11.8%
East Tennessee St. 29.0% 24.4% 4.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 6.3 10.3 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 71.0 6.1%
UNC Greensboro 26.7% 22.4% 4.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.8 5.7 9.6 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 73.3 5.7%
Wofford 11.3% 10.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 88.7 0.5%
Western Carolina 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 96.2 0.1%
Samford 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 97.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Mercer 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.6 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Furman 40.9% 4.4% 39.0% 15.6% 5.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
East Tennessee St. 29.0% 2.9% 27.7% 9.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 26.7% 2.7% 25.5% 8.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Wofford 11.3% 0.3% 11.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 83.0 16.4 0.5 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.1 0.1 87.4 12.2 0.3
2nd Round 35.0% 0.4 65.0 33.3 1.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.0 0.2
Elite Eight 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Final Four 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1