Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
64 East Tennessee St. 45.8%   12   15 - 3 7 - 1 23 - 5 15 - 3 +7.9      +3.6 73 +4.3 71 65.8 270 +12.9 29 +12.8 1
80 Furman 26.9%   14 - 5 7 - 2 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.8      +3.6 72 +3.2 89 68.9 194 +7.6 77 +7.0 2
84 UNC Greensboro 23.9%   14 - 5 5 - 2 21 - 8 12 - 5 +6.5      +0.7 161 +5.8 40 67.0 245 +7.8 73 +6.1 3
136 Wofford 6.7%   11 - 8 5 - 3 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.9      +2.0 119 -0.1 164 63.6 315 +2.8 126 +3.9 4
156 Chattanooga 3.5%   11 - 8 4 - 4 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.2      +0.9 158 -0.6 183 66.7 252 +1.7 141 +0.8 6
158 Western Carolina 4.0%   11 - 6 5 - 3 16 - 11 10 - 8 +0.2      +4.5 56 -4.2 296 75.8 42 +3.3 118 +2.1 5
221 Mercer 0.8%   8 - 11 4 - 4 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.6      -1.3 214 -2.3 234 69.5 168 -4.4 236 -1.1 7
287 Samford 0.1%   5 - 14 2 - 6 8 - 21 5 - 13 -6.9      -1.0 204 -5.9 327 74.2 61 -7.4 287 -7.6 8
297 VMI 0.1%   3 - 16 1 - 7 5 - 23 3 - 14 -7.6      -1.8 224 -5.8 324 68.0 221 -14.7 340 -14.8 9
309 The Citadel 0.0%   3 - 13 0 - 8 6 - 20 3 - 15 -8.7      -3.1 268 -5.6 321 83.1 6 -10.3 316 -15.4 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.3 76.4 16.5 5.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Furman 1.9 32.9 45.8 16.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.9 10.5 27.9 35.6 16.0 6.9 2.7 0.4
Wofford 4.0 2.7 9.9 22.3 33.4 19.2 9.2 3.2 0.1
Chattanooga 5.1 0.3 2.2 8.3 19.2 27.8 29.7 11.7 0.8 0.0
Western Carolina 4.7 0.7 4.6 13.5 23.1 29.8 22.9 4.9 0.4
Mercer 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.1 10.5 23.1 54.4 5.9 0.4 0.0
Samford 8.1 0.2 0.5 2.4 12.7 61.6 18.4 4.1
VMI 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 23.8 44.4 29.8
The Citadel 9.2 0.1 1.9 16.3 37.0 44.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.1 20.5 29.0 23.4 10.0
Furman 14 - 4 0.1 1.0 4.1 13.3 25.7 30.8 20.2 4.8
UNC Greensboro 12 - 6 0.2 0.6 3.0 8.1 17.4 24.4 26.1 15.8 4.4
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 11.5 20.2 25.2 21.0 11.7 3.8 0.3
Chattanooga 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 2.5 8.2 16.3 23.5 22.7 16.8 7.4 2.0 0.2
Western Carolina 10 - 8 0.0 0.7 3.9 11.1 21.4 25.0 21.2 11.4 4.3 1.0 0.1
Mercer 8 - 10 0.9 5.7 16.4 25.3 24.6 16.6 7.6 2.2 0.6 0.0
Samford 5 - 13 4.7 15.5 26.9 24.8 17.2 7.5 2.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 11.7 26.2 28.8 19.5 9.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 5.5 17.8 27.1 25.7 15.6 6.3 1.6 0.4




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 76.4% 58.4 15.3 2.5 0.2 0.0
Furman 32.9% 17.1 13.2 2.3 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 10.5% 3.4 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Wofford 2.7% 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercer 0.0% 0.0
Samford
VMI
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 45.8% 35.9% 9.8% 12   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.5 4.6 19.3 15.1 0.3 54.2 15.4%
Furman 26.9% 26.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.3 16.9 4.3 0.3 73.1 0.6%
UNC Greensboro 23.9% 22.4% 1.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 6.3 13.7 1.3 0.1 76.1 1.9%
Wofford 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 93.3 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 96.5 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 96.0 0.0%
Mercer 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%
Samford 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
East Tennessee St. 45.8% 6.9% 42.0% 13.3% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Furman 26.9% 0.4% 26.6% 7.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 23.9% 1.1% 23.2% 6.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.5 0.1
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 92.7 7.0 0.0
2nd Round 27.4% 0.3 72.6 26.9 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.7 0.1
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0