Mercer
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#221
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Pace69.5#168
Improvement+4.3#29

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#214
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks-1.3#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+0.8#131

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#234
First Shot-2.2#239
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#184
Layups/Dunks-2.5#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#125
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+3.5#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 3.6% 11.9% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 56.3% 24.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 63 - 14
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 69   @ St. John's L 79-109 10%     0 - 1 -19.5 +1.0 -15.7
  Nov 11, 2019 346   Kennesaw St. W 74-62 92%     1 - 1 -7.3 -15.2 +6.4
  Nov 15, 2019 310   Florida Gulf Coast W 84-68 78%     2 - 1 +4.4 -0.8 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern L 88-98 23%     2 - 2 -6.0 +6.4 -11.1
  Nov 23, 2019 206   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-68 36%     3 - 2 +4.1 +1.2 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure L 51-56 18%     3 - 3 +1.0 -11.6 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2019 232   Canisius L 66-76 52%     3 - 4 -14.1 -5.5 -9.0
  Dec 02, 2019 340   Holy Cross L 67-81 81%     3 - 5 -26.8 -12.6 -14.7
  Dec 07, 2019 107   Georgia St. L 61-73 31%     3 - 6 -10.5 -13.3 +3.1
  Dec 16, 2019 302   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-63 57%     4 - 6 +3.6 -1.5 +5.2
  Dec 20, 2019 80   Furman L 62-64 24%     4 - 7 0 - 1 +1.9 -3.3 +5.0
  Dec 22, 2019 186   Florida Atlantic L 50-65 52%     4 - 8 -19.1 -20.1 -0.1
  Jan 01, 2020 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-72 12%     4 - 9 0 - 2 +0.5 -4.5 +5.3
  Jan 04, 2020 156   Chattanooga L 61-70 46%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -11.7 -8.5 -4.0
  Jan 11, 2020 158   @ Western Carolina L 71-79 26%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -4.9 -7.5 +3.0
  Jan 15, 2020 297   VMI W 73-62 75%     5 - 11 1 - 4 +0.4 -2.7 +3.8
  Jan 18, 2020 287   @ Samford W 90-75 51%     6 - 11 2 - 4 +11.0 +9.1 +1.3
  Jan 22, 2020 158   Western Carolina W 85-79 46%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +3.3 +6.4 -3.1
  Jan 25, 2020 297   @ VMI W 69-66 54%     8 - 11 4 - 4 -1.7 -3.2 +1.7
  Jan 29, 2020 64   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-75 8%    
  Feb 01, 2020 309   The Citadel W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 05, 2020 80   @ Furman L 64-77 11%    
  Feb 08, 2020 64   East Tennessee St. L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 12, 2020 136   @ Wofford L 64-72 21%    
  Feb 15, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 19, 2020 287   Samford W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 22, 2020 156   @ Chattanooga L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 26, 2020 309   @ The Citadel W 79-77 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 136   Wofford L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.0 3.9 0.3 10.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 9.8 8.3 1.4 0.0 23.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 13.8 21.2 13.5 2.7 0.1 54.4 7th
8th 0.4 2.5 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.9 5.7 16.4 25.3 24.6 16.6 7.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 2.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
10-8 7.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.4
9-9 16.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 16.4
8-10 24.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 24.5
7-11 25.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.2
6-12 16.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.3
5-13 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%