Furman
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#57
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#43
Pace67.1#259
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 4.0% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 4.3% 8.7% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.5% 52.4% 35.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.0% 20.7% 6.2%
Average Seed 10.6 9.8 11.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.4% 98.0%
Conference Champion 47.3% 54.0% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 6.2% 3.0%
First Round39.7% 49.6% 34.0%
Second Round16.1% 23.1% 12.2%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 8.9% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.4% 1.3%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 38 - 211 - 6
Quad 413 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 193   @ Gardner-Webb W 70-63 77%     1 - 0 +8.1 +1.1 +7.3
  Nov 08, 2019 140   Loyola Chicago W 87-63 84%     2 - 0 +22.4 +14.7 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2019 294   @ Charleston Southern W 91-47 89%     3 - 0 +39.4 +20.6 +20.0
  Nov 19, 2019 52   @ Alabama L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 26, 2019 315   @ Elon W 78-62 92%    
  Nov 27, 2019 117   Texas Arlington W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 02, 2019 136   @ South Florida W 69-65 65%    
  Dec 05, 2019 33   @ Auburn L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 08, 2019 342   South Carolina Upstate W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 14, 2019 144   Winthrop W 76-65 83%    
  Dec 20, 2019 235   @ Mercer W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 01, 2020 327   @ VMI W 78-61 93%    
  Jan 04, 2020 70   East Tennessee St. W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 08, 2020 245   @ Chattanooga W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 11, 2020 89   UNC Greensboro W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 15, 2020 183   Western Carolina W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 17, 2020 110   @ Wofford W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 22, 2020 185   Samford W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 25, 2020 306   @ The Citadel W 88-73 89%    
  Jan 29, 2020 327   VMI W 81-58 98%    
  Feb 05, 2020 235   Mercer W 83-67 91%    
  Feb 08, 2020 183   @ Western Carolina W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 12, 2020 185   @ Samford W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 15, 2020 245   Chattanooga W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 19, 2020 70   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 110   Wofford W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 26, 2020 89   @ UNC Greensboro W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 306   The Citadel W 91-70 96%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.2 11.9 14.3 10.4 4.2 47.3 1st
2nd 0.3 2.4 6.5 9.1 5.8 1.2 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.0 4.7 5.2 2.1 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.4 6.1 9.7 13.4 16.4 17.8 15.5 10.4 4.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-1 100.0% 10.4    10.0 0.4
16-2 92.0% 14.3    11.8 2.4 0.1
15-3 66.8% 11.9    7.3 4.3 0.4
14-4 31.7% 5.2    1.9 2.4 0.8 0.1
13-5 8.7% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 35.4 10.0 1.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.2% 91.3% 67.9% 23.4% 6.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 73.0%
17-1 10.4% 78.8% 57.8% 21.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 49.8%
16-2 15.5% 61.9% 47.4% 14.5% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 5.9 27.5%
15-3 17.8% 45.9% 39.0% 6.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 9.6 11.3%
14-4 16.4% 34.6% 31.7% 2.9% 12.1 0.1 0.9 3.3 1.2 0.2 10.7 4.3%
13-5 13.4% 21.7% 21.1% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.5 0.8%
12-6 9.7% 17.9% 17.6% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 8.0 0.4%
11-7 6.1% 12.3% 12.3% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.3
10-8 3.4% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1
9-9 1.6% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.9% 7.4% 7.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.5% 34.2% 7.2% 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.9 9.4 13.7 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 58.5 11.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 2.8 10.4 36.4 26.8 16.0 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 2.0 42.0 42.0 14.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 25.0 50.0 25.0