Furman
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#80
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#77
Pace68.9#194
Improvement-4.1#327

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#72
First Shot+4.6#52
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#254
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#16
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement-2.3#294

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#89
First Shot+0.4#151
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#13
Layups/Dunks-2.5#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#77
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement-1.9#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 27.1% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 32.9% 33.8% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round26.6% 26.8% 22.6%
Second Round7.0% 7.1% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 38 - 210 - 8
Quad 412 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 248   @ Gardner-Webb W 70-63 80%     1 - 0 +5.0 -2.2 +7.5
  Nov 08, 2019 90   Loyola Chicago W 87-63 64%     2 - 0 +27.0 +17.7 +9.1
  Nov 12, 2019 273   @ Charleston Southern W 91-47 83%     3 - 0 +40.7 +18.8 +23.1
  Nov 19, 2019 34   @ Alabama L 73-81 23%     3 - 1 +6.5 -1.8 +9.4
  Nov 26, 2019 308   @ Elon W 97-61 88%     4 - 1 +30.2 +14.1 +14.0
  Nov 27, 2019 114   Texas Arlington W 58-57 63%     5 - 1 +4.4 -8.2 +12.7
  Dec 02, 2019 117   @ South Florida L 55-65 53%     5 - 2 -3.9 -8.3 +3.8
  Dec 05, 2019 29   @ Auburn L 78-81 OT 21%     5 - 3 +12.4 +3.9 +8.8
  Dec 08, 2019 319   South Carolina Upstate W 84-72 95%     6 - 3 -0.6 +7.5 -7.7
  Dec 14, 2019 127   Winthrop W 80-73 76%     7 - 3 +6.4 +3.8 +2.4
  Dec 20, 2019 221   @ Mercer W 64-62 76%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +1.3 -3.7 +5.2
  Jan 01, 2020 297   @ VMI W 89-73 86%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +11.3 +9.7 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2020 64   East Tennessee St. W 65-56 57%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +14.0 -1.0 +15.6
  Jan 08, 2020 156   @ Chattanooga W 73-66 64%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +10.2 +7.5 +3.2
  Jan 11, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 73-86 62%     11 - 4 4 - 1 -9.4 +3.8 -13.1
  Jan 15, 2020 158   Western Carolina W 83-79 82%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +1.3 +3.5 -2.3
  Jan 17, 2020 136   @ Wofford L 52-66 58%     12 - 5 5 - 2 -9.2 -16.0 +5.8
  Jan 22, 2020 287   Samford W 101-78 93%     13 - 5 6 - 2 +13.2 +12.5 -1.2
  Jan 25, 2020 309   @ The Citadel W 78-54 88%     14 - 5 7 - 2 +18.2 -5.5 +21.7
  Jan 29, 2020 297   VMI W 80-63 95%    
  Feb 05, 2020 221   Mercer W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 08, 2020 158   @ Western Carolina W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 12, 2020 287   @ Samford W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 15, 2020 156   Chattanooga W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 19, 2020 64   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 136   Wofford W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 26, 2020 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 29, 2020 309   The Citadel W 87-69 96%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 10.7 15.4 4.8 32.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.8 17.5 19.6 4.7 45.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.6 6.3 0.5 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.1 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.1 13.3 25.7 30.8 20.2 4.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.8    4.3 0.5
15-3 76.5% 15.4    9.1 6.2 0.1
14-4 34.7% 10.7    3.3 5.9 1.4 0.0
13-5 7.0% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 17.1 13.2 2.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.8% 48.5% 42.7% 5.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 2.5 10.2%
15-3 20.2% 35.4% 34.6% 0.7% 11.7 0.1 2.2 4.4 0.3 0.0 13.0 1.1%
14-4 30.8% 28.5% 28.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.8 7.0 1.0 0.0 22.0 0.1%
13-5 25.7% 23.1% 23.1% 12.3 0.2 3.8 1.8 0.1 19.7
12-6 13.3% 15.9% 15.9% 12.5 0.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 11.2
11-7 4.1% 12.2% 12.2% 12.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.6
10-8 1.0% 10.3% 10.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.9% 26.4% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.3 16.9 4.3 0.3 73.1 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 10.4 0.6 2.9 4.6 10.9 25.9 40.7 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 14.9% 11.1 0.8 11.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 5.6% 11.0 5.6