IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.0	#40
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.4	#160
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.6	#59

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.3	#26

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.5%	2.3%	0.4%
Top 2 Seed	4.2%	5.9%	1.4%
Top 4 Seed	11.6%	15.8%	5.2%
Top 6 Seed	20.1%	26.5%	10.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	54.7%	64.7%	39.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	47.1%	57.2%	32.9%
Average Seed	7.5	7.2	8.3

.500 or above	90.8%	95.9%	82.8%
.500 or above in Conference	81.7%	87.2%	73.3%
Conference Champion	18.7%	23.0%	12.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.7%	1.9%

First Four	7.6%	7.8%	7.3%
First Round	50.8%	60.9%	35.2%
Second Round	30.9%	37.9%	20.0%
Sweet Sixteen	13.4%	17.1%	7.7%
Elite Eight	5.8%	7.6%	3.1%
Final Four	2.1%	2.9%	0.9%
Championship Game	0.8%	1.1%	0.3%
National Champion	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	2 - 2	3 - 5
Quad 2	5 - 3	7 - 8
Quad 3	8 - 2	16 - 10
Quad 4	6 - 0	22 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	65	Arizona St.	W	78-75	61%
Nov 16, 2019	164	San Diego	W	75-61	90%
Nov 18, 2019	106	UC Irvine	W	73-63	82%
Nov 24, 2019	275	Wyoming	W	79-62	94%
Nov 30, 2019	280	Sacramento St.	W	80-59	97%
Dec 04, 2019	149	Loyola Marymount	W	71-58	87%
Dec 07, 2019	4	@ Kansas	L	69-80	15%
Dec 10, 2019	114	Northern Iowa	W	71-61	82%
Dec 13, 2019	179	@ Colorado St.	W	76-67	79%
Dec 19, 2019	277	Prairie View	W	85-64	96%
Dec 21, 2019	60	Dayton	W	70-68	58%
Dec 29, 2019	161	Iona	W	84-70	89%
Jan 02, 2020	16	Oregon	W	67-66	51%
Jan 05, 2020	74	Oregon St.	W	73-66	72%
Jan 12, 2020	110	Utah	W	77-67	80%
Jan 16, 2020	65	@ Arizona St.	L	76-77	50%
Jan 18, 2020	31	@ Arizona	L	69-73	37%
Jan 23, 2020	157	Washington St.	W	83-69	88%
Jan 25, 2020	44	Washington	W	70-66	62%
Jan 30, 2020	82	@ UCLA	W	79-77	55%
Feb 01, 2020	64	@ USC	L	74-75	48%
Feb 06, 2020	166	California	W	77-63	88%
Feb 08, 2020	113	Stanford	W	77-67	80%
Feb 13, 2020	16	@ Oregon	L	63-69	32%
Feb 15, 2020	74	@ Oregon St.	W	70-69	53%
Feb 20, 2020	64	USC	W	78-72	67%
Feb 22, 2020	82	UCLA	W	82-74	73%
Feb 27, 2020	166	@ California	W	74-66	75%
Mar 01, 2020	113	@ Stanford	W	74-70	63%
Mar 07, 2020	110	@ Utah	W	74-70	63%
Projected Record						21 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.5	3.7	5.3	4.8	2.5	0.8		18.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.4	5.4	5.2	2.5	0.5	0.0			16.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	3.0	5.6	4.2	1.3	0.2	0.0				14.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.8	5.0	3.5	0.7	0.0						12.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.9	4.5	2.9	0.4	0.0							9.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.4	3.7	2.5	0.4	0.0								8.2	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	2.9	2.2	0.3	0.0									6.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.2	1.9	0.4	0.0										5.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	1.3	1.5	0.3	0.0											3.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0												2.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0													1.4	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0														0.6	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.0	5.0	6.8	8.6	10.6	11.7	12.2	11.8	10.2	7.9	5.3	2.5	0.8			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	99.9%	2.5		2.3	0.2
16-2	89.8%	4.8		3.7	1.1	0.0
15-3	66.7%	5.3		3.3	1.8	0.2	0.0
14-4	36.0%	3.7		1.5	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.7%	1.5		0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.7%	18.7		11.9	5.2	1.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		100.0%	56.3%	43.7%	1.7		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-1	2.5%		100.0%	47.7%	52.3%	2.6		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
16-2	5.3%		99.8%	39.2%	60.6%	3.7		0.5	0.9	1.2	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.7%
15-3	7.9%		98.7%	31.0%	67.7%	5.4		0.1	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		98.1%
14-4	10.2%		93.2%	23.7%	69.5%	6.9		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.2	1.5	1.5	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.1					0.7		91.1%
13-5	11.8%		85.4%	17.5%	68.0%	8.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.3	1.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	0.3	0.0				1.7		82.3%
12-6	12.2%		68.5%	13.5%	54.9%	9.6				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.5	1.8	2.1	0.8	0.0				3.8		63.5%
11-7	11.7%		49.1%	9.3%	39.8%	10.2					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.3	2.0	0.9	0.0	0.0			6.0		43.8%
10-8	10.6%		28.1%	4.9%	23.3%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.7	0.0	0.0			7.6		24.5%
9-9	8.6%		13.7%	2.9%	10.8%	11.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0			7.4		11.1%
8-10	6.8%		4.1%	1.5%	2.6%	11.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			6.5		2.7%
7-11	5.0%		0.9%	0.5%	0.3%	11.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				4.9		0.3%
6-12	3.0%		0.6%	0.6%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0				3.0
5-13	1.9%		0.0%	0.0%		12.0													0.0					1.9
4-14	1.0%		0.8%	0.8%		13.1														0.0	0.0			1.0
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		54.7%	14.3%	40.3%	7.5		1.5	2.6	3.2	4.3	4.1	4.4	4.8	5.1	6.1	6.8	8.2	3.3	0.2	0.0			45.3		47.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.6	45.0	53.9	1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.3	73.4	26.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	35.4	35.4	29.2