Preseason Rankings
Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.5#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.8% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.6
.500 or above 70.9% 79.4% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 67.3% 48.1%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.3% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.3% 5.5%
First Four1.7% 2.1% 0.9%
First Round5.7% 7.2% 2.7%
Second Round1.9% 2.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 143   Princeton W 75-70 68%    
  Nov 12, 2019 281   Lamar W 82-69 88%    
  Nov 15, 2019 177   Lipscomb W 84-77 73%    
  Nov 21, 2019 158   Indiana St. W 78-75 59%    
  Nov 22, 2019 170   Air Force W 75-72 61%    
  Nov 24, 2019 149   Loyola Marymount W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 04, 2019 300   VMI W 87-73 89%    
  Dec 09, 2019 173   Columbia W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 14, 2019 134   Radford W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 21, 2019 211   Austin Peay W 81-75 69%    
  Dec 22, 2019 140   UAB W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 29, 2019 188   Marshall W 87-82 66%    
  Jan 02, 2020 141   Saint Louis W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 05, 2020 52   Davidson L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 08, 2020 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 11, 2020 190   @ George Washington W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2020 233   Fordham W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 22, 2020 86   @ Rhode Island L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 25, 2020 237   @ Massachusetts W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 29, 2020 60   Dayton L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 02, 2020 189   La Salle W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 05, 2020 141   @ Saint Louis L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 115   St. Bonaventure W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 16, 2020 233   @ Fordham W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 19, 2020 190   George Washington W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 22, 2020 60   @ Dayton L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 26, 2020 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 29, 2020 151   George Mason W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 03, 2020 28   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-80 15%    
  Mar 06, 2020 105   Richmond W 76-74 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 1.7 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 4.6 2.4 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.4 9.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 10.6 9.5 7.1 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.9% 0.4    0.4 0.1
16-2 79.1% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 49.7% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 18.9% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 98.6% 46.4% 52.2% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
17-1 0.4% 83.2% 26.2% 56.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 77.2%
16-2 1.5% 67.1% 20.6% 46.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 58.5%
15-3 2.9% 45.3% 16.5% 28.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 34.5%
14-4 5.0% 26.9% 13.7% 13.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 15.2%
13-5 7.1% 13.4% 9.6% 3.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 4.2%
12-6 9.5% 7.4% 6.4% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8 1.0%
11-7 10.6% 4.6% 4.3% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.3%
10-8 12.3% 1.6% 1.4% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.1%
9-9 11.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.1%
8-10 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-11 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
6-12 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
5-13 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 3.7% 2.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 93.4 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 23.7 27.1 23.7 1.7 23.7