IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+19.7	#2
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.2	#248
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.1	#10

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+10.6	#4

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	9.5%	14.4%	6.0%
#1 Seed	31.9%	44.2%	23.1%
Top 2 Seed	52.2%	66.1%	42.4%
Top 4 Seed	73.7%	84.6%	66.0%
Top 6 Seed	85.2%	93.2%	79.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	96.1%	98.8%	94.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	94.2%	98.0%	91.9%
Average Seed	3.1	2.5	3.6

.500 or above	99.1%	99.9%	98.6%
.500 or above in Conference	96.4%	98.1%	95.1%
Conference Champion	46.3%	54.1%	40.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%

First Four	1.0%	0.3%	1.5%
First Round	95.7%	98.7%	93.6%
Second Round	85.2%	91.5%	80.8%
Sweet Sixteen	61.9%	70.4%	55.9%
Elite Eight	40.7%	49.0%	34.8%
Final Four	24.7%	31.6%	19.9%
Championship Game	14.6%	19.8%	11.0%
National Champion	8.2%	11.8%	5.7%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Neutral) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 4	5 - 4
Quad 1b	4 - 1	9 - 6
Quad 2	7 - 1	16 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 0	20 - 7
Quad 4	6 - 0	27 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	1	Michigan St.	L	70-72	42%
Nov 08, 2019	274	Eastern Kentucky	W	95-66	99.6%
Nov 12, 2019	182	Evansville	W	82-58	99%
Nov 18, 2019	236	Utah Valley	W	83-56	99%
Nov 22, 2019	287	Mount St. Mary's	W	83-53	99.6%
Nov 24, 2019	281	Lamar	W	85-55	99.5%
Nov 29, 2019	140	UAB	W	78-56	97%
Dec 07, 2019	252	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	84-56	99%
Dec 14, 2019	75	Georgia Tech	W	75-59	91%
Dec 18, 2019	110	Utah	W	78-62	91%
Dec 21, 2019	14	Ohio St.	W	69-64	66%
Dec 28, 2019	6	Louisville	W	71-67	63%
Jan 04, 2020	53	Missouri	W	73-60	87%
Jan 07, 2020	62	@ Georgia	W	75-67	75%
Jan 11, 2020	45	Alabama	W	76-64	85%
Jan 15, 2020	78	@ South Carolina	W	76-66	79%
Jan 18, 2020	57	@ Arkansas	W	78-70	74%
Jan 21, 2020	62	Georgia	W	78-64	88%
Jan 25, 2020	13	@ Texas Tech	W	67-66	54%
Jan 29, 2020	124	Vanderbilt	W	78-58	95%
Feb 01, 2020	25	@ Auburn	W	74-70	63%
Feb 04, 2020	48	Mississippi St.	W	77-64	85%
Feb 08, 2020	30	@ Tennessee	W	73-69	64%
Feb 11, 2020	124	@ Vanderbilt	W	75-61	87%
Feb 15, 2020	51	Mississippi	W	78-65	86%
Feb 18, 2020	20	@ LSU	W	76-72	62%
Feb 22, 2020	7	Florida	W	68-62	68%
Feb 25, 2020	61	@ Texas A&M	W	73-65	74%
Feb 29, 2020	25	Auburn	W	77-67	79%
Mar 03, 2020	30	Tennessee	W	76-66	80%
Mar 07, 2020	7	@ Florida	L	64-65	48%
Projected Record						25 - 6	14 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	1.5	5.7	11.1	13.0	10.1	4.8		46.3	1st
2nd												0.2	1.7	5.3	7.0	4.3	1.2	0.0			19.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	4.3	1.7	0.3	0.0				11.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	2.9	2.9	1.0	0.1						7.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.7	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0						4.9	5th
6th									0.1	0.9	1.7	0.8	0.1								3.5	6th
7th								0.0	0.3	1.1	0.8	0.1	0.0								2.3	7th
8th							0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.1										1.5	8th
9th							0.0	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0										0.9	9th
10th						0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0											0.7	10th
11th						0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0												0.5	11th
12th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.2	12th
13th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.2	13th
14th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	14th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.7	3.2	4.9	7.4	9.5	12.1	14.5	15.6	14.2	10.1	4.8			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	4.8		4.8
17-1	99.7%	10.1		9.6	0.5
16-2	91.5%	13.0		10.5	2.4	0.1
15-3	70.9%	11.1		6.6	3.9	0.6	0.0
14-4	39.5%	5.7		2.3	2.5	0.8	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.3%	1.5		0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	46.3%	46.3		34.1	9.9	2.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	4.8%		100.0%	68.2%	31.8%	1.1		4.3	0.5	0.0																100.0%
17-1	10.1%		100.0%	60.3%	39.7%	1.2		8.0	2.0	0.2	0.0															100.0%
16-2	14.2%		100.0%	49.1%	50.9%	1.4		9.3	4.0	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
15-3	15.6%		100.0%	39.6%	60.4%	1.9		6.3	6.0	2.3	0.8	0.2	0.0											0.0		100.0%
14-4	14.5%		100.0%	32.0%	68.0%	2.6		3.0	4.7	3.9	1.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0											100.0%
13-5	12.1%		99.9%	26.2%	73.7%	3.5		0.8	2.3	3.3	2.8	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.9%
12-6	9.5%		99.6%	18.5%	81.0%	4.8		0.2	0.7	1.7	2.0	2.0	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.0		99.5%
11-7	7.4%		98.3%	12.8%	85.5%	6.0		0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.1	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		98.0%
10-8	4.9%		91.6%	7.3%	84.2%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.4		90.9%
9-9	3.2%		77.7%	6.4%	71.3%	8.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.7		76.2%
8-10	1.7%		49.8%	2.0%	47.8%	9.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.9		48.8%
7-11	0.9%		20.3%	4.1%	16.2%	9.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.7		16.9%
6-12	0.5%		9.9%	0.3%	9.6%	10.1								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.5		9.6%
5-13	0.3%		2.2%		2.2%	9.2										0.0			0.0					0.3		2.2%
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		96.1%	33.7%	62.5%	3.1		31.9	20.4	12.8	8.7	6.7	4.7	3.6	2.6	2.1	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.0				3.9		94.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.1%	100.0%	1.0	97.8	2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	100.0%	1.0	95.4	4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%	100.0%	1.1	89.4	10.6