IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-14.1	#347
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.6	#126
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-8.7	#345

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.5	#327

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	7.6%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.5	15.9

.500 or above	5.6%	31.9%	5.4%
.500 or above in Conference	16.0%	45.0%	15.8%
Conference Champion	0.7%	3.7%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	33.2%	13.2%	33.4%

First Four	0.5%	4.3%	0.4%
First Round	0.4%	6.2%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 7
Quad 4	6 - 12	7 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	61	@ Texas A&M	L	58-84	1%
Nov 12, 2019	229	Rice	L	72-79	25%
Nov 16, 2019	242	@ Tulane	L	67-80	13%
Nov 26, 2019	223	@ Louisiana Monroe	L	64-78	11%
Dec 03, 2019	89	@ SMU	L	57-79	2%
Dec 08, 2019	20	@ LSU	L	61-91	0.4%
Dec 18, 2019	186	@ Sam Houston St.	L	63-78	10%
Dec 21, 2019	281	Lamar	L	69-73	36%
Jan 02, 2020	291	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	60-70	20%
Jan 05, 2020	292	Houston Baptist	L	79-83	37%
Jan 08, 2020	344	@ Incarnate Word	L	68-71	38%
Jan 11, 2020	316	@ McNeese St.	L	66-74	26%
Jan 15, 2020	309	@ Nicholls St.	L	69-77	24%
Jan 22, 2020	290	Stephen F. Austin	L	68-72	37%
Jan 25, 2020	299	SE Louisiana	L	65-68	40%
Jan 29, 2020	243	@ New Orleans	L	64-77	15%
Feb 01, 2020	284	Central Arkansas	L	74-78	36%
Feb 05, 2020	286	Abilene Christian	L	64-68	37%
Feb 08, 2020	292	@ Houston Baptist	L	76-86	22%
Feb 12, 2020	344	Incarnate Word	W	71-68	58%
Feb 15, 2020	316	McNeese St.	L	69-71	44%
Feb 19, 2020	309	Nicholls St.	L	72-74	42%
Feb 26, 2020	290	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	65-75	21%
Feb 29, 2020	299	@ SE Louisiana	L	62-71	22%
Mar 04, 2020	243	New Orleans	L	67-74	30%
Mar 07, 2020	284	@ Central Arkansas	L	71-81	20%
Projected Record						7 - 19	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0						1.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0							2.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	0.8	0.1	0.0								3.2	5th
6th									0.1	0.7	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.0									4.2	6th
7th								0.1	0.7	2.3	2.0	0.4	0.0										5.4	7th
8th							0.0	0.7	2.5	2.5	0.7	0.0											6.4	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	2.8	3.6	1.1	0.0												8.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.9	3.1	4.1	1.8	0.2	0.0												10.2	10th
11th				0.3	1.5	4.3	5.0	2.3	0.3	0.0													13.7	11th
12th		0.1	1.0	3.0	5.8	5.2	2.3	0.4	0.0														17.8	12th
13th	1.8	4.1	6.2	6.2	4.2	1.6	0.3	0.0															24.5	13th

Total	1.8	4.2	7.2	9.5	11.7	12.0	11.4	10.5	9.0	6.8	5.5	4.0	2.6	1.8	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	98.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	91.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
16-4	63.9%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	33.8%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	10.1%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0
18-2	0.0%		26.0%	26.0%		15.2																0.0	0.0	0.0
17-3	0.2%		29.6%	29.6%		15.7																0.0	0.0	0.1
16-4	0.3%		30.7%	30.7%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2
15-5	0.6%		17.3%	17.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	0.5
14-6	1.1%		14.3%	14.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	0.9
13-7	1.8%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.1	1.7
12-8	2.6%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.1	2.5
11-9	4.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
10-10	5.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
9-11	6.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
8-12	9.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
7-13	10.5%																							10.5
6-14	11.4%																							11.4
5-15	12.0%																							12.0
4-16	11.7%																							11.7
3-17	9.5%																							9.5
2-18	7.2%																							7.2
1-19	4.2%																							4.2
0-20	1.8%																							1.8

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.5%