Abilene Christian
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#330
Pace64.7#300
Improvement-0.2#197

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#300
First Shot-5.1#305
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#150
Layup/Dunks-0.6#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#244
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-1.2#316

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#236
First Shot-2.5#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#158
Layups/Dunks-1.4#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-3.4#316
Improvement+1.0#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 11.4% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 31.9% 56.7% 28.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 77.4% 60.0%
Conference Champion 7.1% 12.9% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.5% 4.0%
First Four3.5% 4.1% 3.4%
First Round5.0% 9.4% 4.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 411 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2019 257   @ Drexel L 83-86 OT 33%     0 - 1 -5.1 -0.5 -4.2
  Nov 16, 2019 116   Pepperdine L 69-73 26%     0 - 2 -4.2 -9.9 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2019 146   @ UNLV L 58-72 15%     0 - 3 -9.8 -6.6 -5.0
  Nov 25, 2019 135   @ Texas St. L 57-69 14%    
  Nov 29, 2019 94   @ SMU L 57-72 9%    
  Dec 05, 2019 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-65 68%    
  Dec 18, 2019 260   @ New Orleans L 65-69 34%    
  Dec 21, 2019 209   Nicholls St. L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 29, 2019 53   @ Wichita St. L 55-74 4%    
  Jan 04, 2020 255   @ Lamar L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 08, 2020 301   McNeese St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2020 299   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 63-59 66%    
  Jan 18, 2020 318   SE Louisiana W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 22, 2020 184   @ Sam Houston St. L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 25, 2020 309   @ Central Arkansas L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 29, 2020 231   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 346   Incarnate Word W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 05, 2020 345   @ Northwestern St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 08, 2020 255   Lamar W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 12, 2020 295   Houston Baptist W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 15, 2020 299   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 60-62 45%    
  Feb 19, 2020 295   @ Houston Baptist L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 318   @ SE Louisiana W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 26, 2020 184   Sam Houston St. L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 29, 2020 309   Central Arkansas W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 03, 2020 231   Stephen F. Austin W 72-71 50%    
  Mar 07, 2020 346   @ Incarnate Word W 68-63 66%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.4 4.5 3.5 1.0 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 1.6 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.7 8.6 10.2 11.2 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.5 5.3 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 81.8% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 57.7% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.8% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 39.1% 39.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 44.8% 44.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
17-3 2.0% 32.9% 32.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.4
16-4 3.3% 27.5% 27.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4
15-5 5.3% 24.2% 24.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0
14-6 7.5% 15.1% 15.1% 15.9 0.1 1.0 6.4
13-7 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.8 8.6
12-8 10.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.2
11-9 11.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 11.3
10-10 11.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.0
9-11 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.2
8-12 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 6.7% 6.7
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.1 93.5 0.0%