Abilene Christian
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#222
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Pace71.5#120
Improvement+2.2#78

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#276
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#223
Layup/Dunks+2.7#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#337
Freethrows+2.2#38
Improvement+0.9#121

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#158
First Shot-1.2#202
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#12
Freethrows-3.8#338
Improvement+1.3#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.5% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 72.6% 78.0% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 98.1% 90.4%
Conference Champion 18.0% 20.7% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 5.1%
First Round11.0% 12.1% 6.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 414 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2019 228   @ Drexel L 83-86 OT 40%     0 - 1 -4.0 -0.4 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2019 149   Pepperdine L 69-73 43%     0 - 2 -5.8 -10.1 +4.4
  Nov 18, 2019 135   @ UNLV L 58-72 21%     0 - 3 -9.2 -6.7 -4.3
  Nov 25, 2019 136   @ Texas St. L 56-61 21%     0 - 4 -0.3 -10.0 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2019 83   @ SMU L 51-70 11%     0 - 5 -9.5 -11.5 -1.4
  Dec 05, 2019 331   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-64 83%     1 - 5 -4.7 -9.9 +5.0
  Dec 18, 2019 306   @ New Orleans W 77-71 59%     2 - 5 1 - 0 +0.0 -7.5 +6.9
  Dec 21, 2019 205   Nicholls St. W 79-61 58%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +12.3 +0.5 +10.5
  Dec 29, 2019 38   @ Wichita St. L 66-84 6%     3 - 6 -3.7 -1.1 -1.6
  Jan 04, 2020 273   @ Lamar W 74-62 49%     4 - 6 3 - 0 +8.7 +2.1 +6.6
  Jan 08, 2020 289   McNeese St. L 84-88 74%     4 - 7 3 - 1 -14.3 -7.1 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2020 296   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-56 75%     5 - 7 4 - 1 +1.3 -8.0 +9.2
  Jan 18, 2020 315   SE Louisiana W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 22, 2020 187   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2020 307   @ Central Arkansas W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 29, 2020 144   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 01, 2020 347   Incarnate Word W 74-59 92%    
  Feb 05, 2020 325   @ Northwestern St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 08, 2020 273   Lamar W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 12, 2020 345   Houston Baptist W 94-80 90%    
  Feb 15, 2020 296   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 19, 2020 345   @ Houston Baptist W 91-83 76%    
  Feb 22, 2020 315   @ SE Louisiana W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2020 187   Sam Houston St. W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 307   Central Arkansas W 80-72 77%    
  Mar 03, 2020 144   Stephen F. Austin L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 347   @ Incarnate Word W 72-62 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.5 9.0 3.9 0.5 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 8.0 8.4 2.5 0.2 22.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 7.2 6.3 1.7 0.1 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.3 5.1 8.8 13.6 17.3 18.4 15.3 10.7 5.4 1.7 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
17-3 91.6% 4.9    3.7 1.2 0.0
16-4 61.2% 6.5    3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 24.4% 3.7    1.0 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 9.7 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 35.4% 35.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.7% 34.4% 34.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1
17-3 5.4% 30.5% 30.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 3.7
16-4 10.7% 25.6% 25.6% 15.6 0.1 1.0 1.7 8.0
15-5 15.3% 22.0% 22.0% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.7 12.0
14-6 18.4% 14.5% 14.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4 15.7
13-7 17.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 15.9
12-8 13.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.0
11-9 8.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.6
10-10 5.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.0
9-11 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.5 3.2 9.7 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.8 42.5 40.0 17.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%