SMU
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#83
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Pace63.4#318
Improvement+2.1#85

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#27
First Shot+5.7#32
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#94
Layup/Dunks+4.2#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#90
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement+2.5#43

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#165
First Shot+0.3#146
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#219
Layups/Dunks+5.1#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#345
Freethrows+1.4#97
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 11.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 5.8% 2.1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.1
.500 or above 97.0% 98.9% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.0% 70.6% 44.2%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.9% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.1% 5.0%
First Four2.5% 3.3% 1.4%
First Round7.5% 9.4% 4.6%
Second Round2.4% 3.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 45 - 10
Quad 37 - 212 - 11
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 235   Jacksonville St. W 74-65 89%     1 - 0 +1.9 +0.4 +1.7
  Nov 12, 2019 306   New Orleans W 77-64 95%     2 - 0 +1.2 -1.5 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2019 327   Jackson St. W 80-63 96%     3 - 0 +3.7 +4.1 -0.2
  Nov 18, 2019 246   @ Evansville W 59-57 79%     4 - 0 +0.1 -10.2 +10.4
  Nov 23, 2019 135   @ UNLV W 72-68 57%     5 - 0 +8.8 +10.6 -1.2
  Nov 27, 2019 283   Hartford W 90-58 93%     6 - 0 +22.2 +20.5 +3.9
  Nov 29, 2019 222   Abilene Christian W 70-51 89%     7 - 0 +12.5 +8.3 +7.6
  Dec 03, 2019 325   Northwestern St. W 77-51 96%     8 - 0 +12.8 -2.1 +14.8
  Dec 07, 2019 44   Georgetown L 74-91 46%     8 - 1 -9.4 +3.5 -13.1
  Dec 20, 2019 61   @ Georgia L 85-87 2OT 32%     8 - 2 +9.3 +4.8 +4.8
  Dec 23, 2019 97   Georgia St. W 85-76 67%     9 - 2 +11.0 +1.5 +8.4
  Jan 01, 2020 117   South Florida W 82-64 71%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +18.8 +11.5 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2020 142   @ Vanderbilt W 92-81 OT 58%     11 - 2 +15.4 +13.0 +1.7
  Jan 08, 2020 108   Central Florida W 81-74 69%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +8.3 +16.1 -7.3
  Jan 11, 2020 221   @ East Carolina L 68-71 76%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -3.7 +2.6 -6.6
  Jan 15, 2020 34   @ Houston L 62-71 22%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +5.7 +1.5 +3.1
  Jan 18, 2020 76   Temple W 69-67 60%    
  Jan 22, 2020 221   East Carolina W 78-65 89%    
  Jan 25, 2020 28   @ Memphis L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 28, 2020 47   @ Cincinnati L 65-71 27%    
  Feb 01, 2020 160   Tulane W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 08, 2020 76   @ Temple L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 12, 2020 82   Connecticut W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 15, 2020 34   Houston L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 19, 2020 160   @ Tulane W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 106   @ Tulsa L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 25, 2020 28   Memphis L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 01, 2020 38   Wichita St. L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 04, 2020 108   @ Central Florida L 66-67 48%    
  Mar 07, 2020 117   @ South Florida L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.9 3.1 0.4 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.4 5.0 7.3 1.2 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 8.1 2.4 0.1 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 7.5 3.6 0.2 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.0 4.4 0.4 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.3 0.8 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.9 12.3 16.5 18.0 16.8 12.5 7.5 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 98.6% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 74.4% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 39.2% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 7.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 87.4% 17.5% 69.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.7%
14-4 1.2% 70.6% 20.5% 50.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 63.0%
13-5 3.7% 48.6% 12.8% 35.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.9 41.0%
12-6 7.5% 24.8% 10.6% 14.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 5.6 15.9%
11-7 12.5% 12.7% 8.3% 4.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 10.9 4.8%
10-8 16.8% 6.4% 5.2% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 15.7 1.3%
9-9 18.0% 3.9% 3.6% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 17.3 0.3%
8-10 16.5% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 16.2 0.0%
7-11 12.3% 1.7% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
5-13 3.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 4.7% 4.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 4.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 91.2 4.2%