SMU
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#93
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#46
Pace63.4#323
Improvement+1.2#46

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#31
Layup/Dunks+1.0#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#311
Freethrows+5.2#9
Improvement+0.0#168

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#107
First Shot+1.3#128
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks+1.4#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#123
Freethrows-1.0#235
Improvement+1.2#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 13.7% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.7% 9.5% 3.4%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.7
.500 or above 84.4% 91.1% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 66.4% 52.9%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.2% 4.3%
First Four3.4% 4.6% 2.0%
First Round8.3% 11.2% 4.6%
Second Round3.2% 4.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 36 - 310 - 12
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 226   Jacksonville St. W 74-65 86%     1 - 0 +2.5 -0.1 +2.8
  Nov 12, 2019 259   New Orleans W 77-64 89%     2 - 0 +4.7 +2.2 +2.9
  Nov 16, 2019 318   Jackson St. W 80-63 94%     3 - 0 +4.0 +2.0 +2.3
  Nov 18, 2019 139   @ Evansville W 59-57 52%     4 - 0 +6.7 -5.7 +12.5
  Nov 23, 2019 149   @ UNLV W 66-64 56%    
  Nov 27, 2019 301   Hartford W 72-56 94%    
  Nov 29, 2019 287   Abilene Christian W 72-57 92%    
  Dec 03, 2019 345   Northwestern St. W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 07, 2019 77   Georgetown W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 20, 2019 66   @ Georgia L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 23, 2019 146   Georgia St. W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 01, 2020 142   South Florida W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 04, 2020 114   @ Vanderbilt L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 08, 2020 117   Central Florida W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 11, 2020 238   @ East Carolina W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 15, 2020 45   @ Houston L 63-72 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 89   Temple W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 22, 2020 238   East Carolina W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 25, 2020 23   @ Memphis L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 28, 2020 25   @ Cincinnati L 60-71 18%    
  Feb 01, 2020 214   Tulane W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 89   @ Temple L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 12, 2020 75   Connecticut W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 45   Houston L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 19, 2020 214   @ Tulane W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 143   @ Tulsa W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 25, 2020 23   Memphis L 72-77 33%    
  Mar 01, 2020 53   Wichita St. L 65-66 45%    
  Mar 04, 2020 117   @ Central Florida L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 07, 2020 142   @ South Florida W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.7 10.0 12.4 13.5 13.3 11.6 9.2 6.1 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 89.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 66.2% 1.3    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.8% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 96.3% 25.9% 70.4% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0%
16-2 0.7% 91.5% 22.9% 68.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.0%
15-3 1.9% 75.5% 19.2% 56.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 69.7%
14-4 3.8% 56.3% 14.3% 42.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 49.0%
13-5 6.1% 34.1% 9.6% 24.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 27.1%
12-6 9.2% 18.0% 6.7% 11.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.5 12.1%
11-7 11.6% 8.5% 5.0% 3.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.6 3.7%
10-8 13.3% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.8 1.4%
9-9 13.5% 2.0% 1.7% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.2%
8-10 12.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.4
7-11 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.2% 3.7% 6.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.8 6.7%