Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#234
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#70
Pace69.8#179
Improvement+1.7#24

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#167
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#250
Layup/Dunks+1.4#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
Freethrows-0.5#203
Improvement+2.2#12

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#300
First Shot-5.0#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#148
Layups/Dunks-8.2#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement-0.4#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.4
.500 or above 39.3% 48.5% 25.6%
.500 or above in Conference 29.5% 33.6% 23.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 14.2% 20.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 60.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 85 - 12
Quad 49 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 47   @ Mississippi L 43-71 6%     0 - 1 -14.7 -22.3 +7.2
  Nov 14, 2019 321   VMI W 71-56 81%     1 - 1 +1.5 -3.4 +6.2
  Nov 15, 2019 316   UC Davis W 80-67 80%     2 - 1 +0.1 +0.5 -0.8
  Nov 17, 2019 334   Idaho W 82-68 84%     3 - 1 -0.9 +8.4 -8.1
  Nov 20, 2019 168   @ Colorado St. W 80-78 26%     4 - 1 +4.7 +10.0 -5.3
  Nov 30, 2019 231   Stephen F. Austin W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 03, 2019 206   Nebraska Omaha W 76-75 56%    
  Dec 07, 2019 144   @ Tulsa L 68-76 22%    
  Dec 11, 2019 124   @ Missouri St. L 65-74 19%    
  Dec 18, 2019 225   Louisiana W 80-78 58%    
  Dec 21, 2019 235   @ Louisiana Monroe L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 02, 2020 110   Texas Arlington L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 04, 2020 119   Texas St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 06, 2020 147   Georgia St. L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 09, 2020 163   @ South Alabama L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 11, 2020 295   Troy W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 16, 2020 185   @ Appalachian St. L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 18, 2020 166   @ Coastal Carolina L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 23, 2020 163   South Alabama L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 25, 2020 295   @ Troy W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2020 185   Appalachian St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 01, 2020 166   Coastal Carolina L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 08, 2020 156   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 13, 2020 110   @ Texas Arlington L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 15, 2020 119   @ Texas St. L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 19, 2020 235   Louisiana Monroe W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 156   Arkansas Little Rock L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 26, 2020 225   @ Louisiana L 77-81 38%    
  Mar 03, 2020 111   @ Georgia Southern L 75-85 18%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 1.8 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.2 4.0 1.0 0.0 13.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 13.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.7 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.9 6.6 9.0 11.4 12.2 12.5 11.6 9.7 7.5 5.0 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 89.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 68.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 48.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 18.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 17.1% 17.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.4% 24.9% 24.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.0% 19.2% 19.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 2.0% 13.5% 13.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-7 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
12-8 5.0% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
11-9 7.5% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
10-10 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
9-11 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-12 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
7-13 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-15 9.0% 9.0
4-16 6.6% 6.6
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 2.3% 2.3
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%