Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#229
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#159
Pace66.8#253
Improvement-2.1#272

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#177
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+0.8#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#335
Freethrows+3.9#7
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#291
First Shot-4.7#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#117
Layups/Dunks-4.4#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#112
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement-1.8#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 14.9
.500 or above 53.3% 75.2% 46.4%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 52.3% 24.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.8% 7.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 33 - 105 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 101   @ Mississippi L 43-71 14%     0 - 1 -20.4 -25.9 +5.1
  Nov 14, 2019 298   VMI W 71-56 75%     1 - 1 +4.1 -3.5 +9.0
  Nov 15, 2019 255   UC Davis W 80-67 66%     2 - 1 +4.8 +0.4 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2019 319   Idaho W 82-68 80%     3 - 1 +1.4 +12.1 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2019 118   @ Colorado St. W 80-78 16%     4 - 1 +8.6 +13.4 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2019 144   Stephen F. Austin L 57-76 40%     4 - 2 -20.4 -22.2 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2019 196   Nebraska Omaha W 78-73 55%     5 - 2 -0.2 -1.0 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2019 106   @ Tulsa W 66-63 15%     6 - 2 +10.3 +12.7 -1.7
  Dec 11, 2019 157   @ Missouri St. L 53-75 24%     6 - 3 -18.4 -11.7 -9.1
  Dec 18, 2019 256   Louisiana W 79-67 67%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +3.7 -0.7 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2019 245   @ Louisiana Monroe W 62-59 42%     8 - 3 2 - 0 +1.1 -5.5 +7.0
  Jan 02, 2020 127   Texas Arlington L 52-73 37%     8 - 4 2 - 1 -21.6 -17.7 -5.1
  Jan 04, 2020 136   Texas St. L 67-70 39%     8 - 5 2 - 2 -4.1 -7.8 +3.8
  Jan 06, 2020 97   Georgia St. W 90-87 28%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +5.0 +17.5 -12.5
  Jan 09, 2020 183   @ South Alabama L 59-75 28%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -13.8 -5.0 -11.2
  Jan 11, 2020 276   Troy W 76-68 OT 70%     10 - 6 4 - 3 -1.4 -9.0 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2020 194   @ Appalachian St. L 80-83 OT 32%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -2.1 +5.3 -7.3
  Jan 18, 2020 159   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-78 24%    
  Jan 23, 2020 183   South Alabama L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 25, 2020 276   @ Troy L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 30, 2020 194   Appalachian St. W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 159   Coastal Carolina L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 161   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-73 24%    
  Feb 13, 2020 127   @ Texas Arlington L 65-74 19%    
  Feb 15, 2020 136   @ Texas St. L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 19, 2020 245   Louisiana Monroe W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 22, 2020 161   Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 26, 2020 256   @ Louisiana L 73-74 45%    
  Mar 03, 2020 133   @ Georgia Southern L 70-79 21%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.6 6.4 1.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.1 4.2 0.2 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.0 7.4 0.9 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 6.8 8.7 1.7 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.0 6.2 1.7 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 6.7 11th
12th 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 12th
Total 0.6 3.3 9.1 15.9 20.2 20.1 15.2 9.0 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 56.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 38.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-8 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
11-9 9.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
10-10 15.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.1
9-11 20.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0
8-12 20.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 20.2
7-13 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
6-14 9.1% 9.1
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%